Tuesday Midday Blog: More thunderstorms, plus a look a our long range forecast.

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I hope your Tuesday is going great so far!  I have been working all morning long with multiple things.  I stay busy with work, blogs, working on my pattern which this is a very important time of the year.  Plus, I am have a lot of work to do with the AMS (American Meteorological Society) board that I am a part of. However, I enjoy every part of it and love to stay busy.

Let me start off with what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  Remember the new pattern sets up each and every year around the 3rd week of September.  Now when I say the pattern, this means how storm systems will react for the entire next year.  The Heady Pattern influences El Nino and La Nina.  We just came out of a fairly strong El Nino and now sit in a very weak to neutral La Nina.  It looks like we will stay in a neutral to weak La Nina through the fall, winter and spring months at this time.  However, this does need to be watched because the new pattern hasn’t set-up yet.  But this is the way it is looking at this time.

Now the recurring cycle inside the pattern has been at 49 days with this past pattern.  I can still see the 49 days pretty well, but you can definitely see the shift in the Jet Stream and how the 49 day cycle doesn’t fit near as well.

However, you can still see our old cycle in our old pattern.  Lets look at today.

500

You can see the systems rotating around each other in eastern Canada.  Plus the system dropping down in the western high plains.  Lets go back about 49-50 days to the 4th of July.

July 4th

The jet is flat due to the time of the year, but the same systems are there.  This is always interesting because we have two cycles going at once.

Our new cycle did start a while back and we have almost completed a full cycle.  Once this has occurred I will be able to really tell how the fall, winter and spring will set-up.  Then I will get even a better view on this once the new pattern sets up the 3rd week of September.  So this is a 3 step process and we are still in step one but about to move to step two.  As of right now here is what I see.

Fall:  Near average temperatures with above average rain continuing.

Winter:  Near average temperatures or just below.  At or just above average snow.  We average about 16″ of snow.

We do have more showers and thunderstorm working in this afternoon.  They will be scattered about across the region.

Afternoon

These will work NE during the evening hours.  The heat will kick in on Wednesday ahead of storm system number 2.

Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms tomorrow from central KS into northern MO.  South of the front should shoot into the 90s with the heat index around 100 degrees.  As this front sags south on Thursday, so will the showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday evening

Pop-up thunderstorms will continue into Friday and Saturday.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot most of the week with pop-up thunderstorms each day.

September 4th-10th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures a little bit cooler on Thursday and Friday before we warm up a bit for the weekend.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week with a warming trend toward the weekend.  Rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  Warm and dry through the first half of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week but mainly dry.

Friday PM Blog: Thunderstorms, Cooler Temperatures, La Nina? Fall!

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good but very busy.  I am sorry I haven’t gotten this blog updated as much lately as I have been on some serious vacation this summer.  The summer is my vacation time as I don’t take any days off during the fall, winter and spring.  That is our busy season and I like to be around as I am a true weather nerd.

So I am trying to get some stuff done around the house today and also get some bills payed, ugh.  I hate paying bills like every other person on this planet.  At least the weather should be some what interesting as we work through the evening and overnight hours tonight.

So far it has turned out to be another nice day with highs back into the mid to upper 80s across the region.  We will have a few pop-up thunderstorms with the heating of the day.

Evening

During the evening hours, we will have a few random pop-up storms.  The bigger thunderstorms will be across central KS with the cold front that will start plowing east through the evening hours.  However, the few isolated storms that we have could cause a few issues for High School Football, but I don’t see it being a huge problem.  As the evening pushes on, we will see the line of showers and thunderstorms working in mainly after 10pm.  Some of these could be on the strong side.

Midnight

We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours the will slowly push south into Arkansas by morning.  A cold front will drop through during the morning hours and push all of the showers and thunderstorms across the southern plains.  This will allow most of the central plains to clear out and cool down.

Saturday PM

Most of us will only have high temperatures into the upper 70s which is just crazy for the middle of August.

Saturday temperatures

Of course we will heat right back up next week.

Over the weekend I will go in-depth with what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  The old pattern is closing out as we are in the morphing stage from old to new which will be set by the 3rd week of September.  You can still see the old 49 day cycle that we have been in since July 10th of 2015.  However, the new cycle is also in place and has now become the dominant cycle and will be in place for about the next year.  This will and already has shown me how the fall, winter and spring will set up.  We are in a very weak La Nina to almost neutral which which will be interesting for the fall and winter.  The Heady Pattern influences La Nina and that is the key!  The cycle influences La Nina.  I think our new cycle length is interesting but very predicted at our current La Nina strength.  So I will go into great details about this and what it means over the weekend.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms most of the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Heating up for the first half of the week and mainly dry.  Warm the second half of the week with chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler but mainly dry the rest of the week.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week with a warming trend toward the weekend.  Rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  Warm and dry through the first half of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week but mainly dry.

Friday PM Blog: More thunderstorms, but much cooler temperatures. Plus your long range Heady Pattern

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope you are having a great Friday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, except for fighting a migraine which is nothing new for me.  I fight these guys all the time and have my entire life.  However, I can type still so I am doing okay.

Wow, what a hot and humid week, ugh!  We do have pretty big changes moving in over the next few days.  We are still right on track with the Heady Pattern as we have been slowly morphing from the old to the new pattern which will be in  place here by the 3rd week of September.  However, the old cycle is becoming less and less dominant each week as the new cycle continues to get stronger which will here kill the old 49-50 day cycle over the next several weeks.  I have been long range forecasting off of a mix of the old and new and will do a complete switch to the new cycle here in a few weeks.

Well, it is Friday and that means the weekend is here!  I hope you have big plans to enjoy the weekend.  If you have kids, then most of your kids will start school this coming week.  My son Christian will be in 2nd grade with blows my mind.

Showers and thunderstorms have been rolling across the central plains with a cold front that is dipping south.  This has been the trend all summer with cold front digging pretty far south.  This usually doesn’t happen during the summer months but we will take it.  During the afternoon, we will continue to see scattered thunderstorms.

Early evening

We could see some heavy rains across the I-44 corridor from central MO stretching SW into central OK.  However, the overall average will be from 1/2-1″ of rain.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift south tonight.

Midnight

On Saturday, all of the showers and thunderstorms will stay south into AR, SE OK and south into TX.  The thunderstorms like to pop-up where the front is.

Saturday Pm

You can see what is causing all of this in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

500 Saturday

We have a wave dipping south across the central plains brings south some cooler air with moisture in place along the Gulf with some tropical moisture.  However, the front starts to lift back north on Monday.

Monday

Because the front lifts back north and stalls, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through most of nextt week.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day.

August 21st-27th:  Warm through most of the week with thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.  The middle of the week should be dry with a few scattered thunderstorms returning by the weekend.

August 28th-September 3rd:  A hot week with just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

September 4th-10th:  Hot most of the week with temperatures cooling down just a bit by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures settling in the rest of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The rest of the week will be on the dry side.

Wednesday AM: Another storm system with more summer storms

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Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine is going pretty good so far.  I have a busy day today.  I need to change the rear brakes on my SUV, and one of the breaks has a busted caliper.  Ugh, not looking forward to that.  However, I am going to make my son get outside in the heat and sweat with me and at least watch what I am doing.  I think it is good for him, it is better than playing mind craft on my ipad.

The fairly wet summer pattern continues which is common for a La Nina summer.  Remember we are still in the old Heady Pattern but we are switching to the new pattern right now.  Plus it is influenced by La Nina which will be the case for the next year.  This is why the wet weather has picked up and will continue to be the case across the central plains for the next several months.

Another hot and humid day today with a few PM isolated storms with some tropical moisture popping up.

Wednesday PM

This will continue into Thursday.  Hot and humid with a few pop-up PM storms.  However, on Friday a cold front starts to sag south.

Friday 500

You can see the dip or slight dip in the Jet Stream.  We consider that a dip this time of the year.  This will drag a cold front south.

Friday PM

As this front sags south this will give the entire central plains great chances for scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, night and into Saturday.  Here is a look at Saturday.

Saturday PM

Rain chances will start to decrease on Sunday.  Make sure you check out my long range forecast out below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day.

August 21st-27th:  Warm through most of the week with thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.  The middle of the week should be dry with a few scattered thunderstorms returning by the weekend.

August 28th-September 3rd:  A hot week with just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

September 4th-10th:  Hot most of the week with temperatures cooling down just a bit by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures settling in the rest of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The rest of the week will be on the dry side.

Wednesday late AM Blog: More heat! But some thunderstorms

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine is shaping up pretty decent as I have stayed busy with work and stuff at home.  I need to get some errands ran before I head into work today and hopefully a few things around the house.  There is never enough hours in the day!  I am sure a lot of you know how that feels.  My son is pumped up for school to start here in a couple of weeks which I think is nuts.  When I was a kid we didn’t start until after Labor Day.  Whatever floats his boat I guess.  Just as long as he knows we are still hitting the lake every weekend!

Well, we continue with the very hot and humid conditions across the region.  We only hit 100 degrees a couple of time last summer and never hit 100 the summer before.  However, we average hitting 100 about 3-5 times per summer.  In 2011 and 2012, we hit 100 over 30 times each summer.  Those were both very dry summers and when you don’t have much humidity you can easily pop above 100 degrees.  When you have a summer with a lot of humidity like this summer, it is very hard to get above 100.  I guess you have to pick your poison on that one.

We have had a few scattered thunderstorms across the region and central plains through the morning hours today.  These will slowly die off over the next few hours and allow the temperatures to spike into the upper 90s this afternoon.

Temperatures

We are still dominated by our big upper level  high that is producing the heat and humidity across the region.

500 mb

This keeps most of the thunderstorms north of the high pressure.  As the high breaks down just a bit toward the weekend, we will see the thunderstorms sink a little farther toward the south.  Lets jump into Friday.

Friday

We will see a front sagging south into north OK and southern MO that should produce a few scattered thunderstorms.  This will also continue into the weekend.  Take a look at Saturday.

Saturday

It won’t be a wash-out for these areas, but there will be scattered thunderstorms.

We are still right on track with the heady pattern.  The old cycle of 49-50 days is still rolling but fading away.  The new cycle continues to take shape and it really showings signs now of at least being equal to the old 49 day cycle and will now become the dominant cycle.  This is right on schedule with what should happen as it has now been in place for about 6 weeks.  I have a pretty good idea what the fall is looking like and starting to get a grasp on the winter and next spring.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm to hot start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  Hot and mainly dry the second half of the week.

August 14th-20th:  The week will start hot and dry with warm temperatures the second half of the week with chances of thunderstorms.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Most of the week will be on the hot side with thunderstorm chances heading into the holiday weekend.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.

Friday PM Blog: More Thunderstorms and heat! Plus a look down the road

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Good Friday afternoon.  I hope you are enjoying your Friday so far.  I have been running errands all morning and just got back home to do a little work before I head off to work.  I would like to get outside and do a couple things real quick as well.  If you know me, I like to squeeze about 15 things into about an hour if that is possible.  Now that is never possible but trust me I will always try, lol.

We have had more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this morning like we have had over the past few days.  We have had a front hanging out all week long with waves passing by.  That is why the central and southern plains have had rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This has been a big switch compared to the heat and humidity we had over the past couple of weeks.  However, this all fits into our pattern and this is what we should be having right now.  The old pattern is still in place but dying out as the new pattern is slowly evolving.  The new cycle for that pattern is already in place and completely set.  The old cycle of 49 days is also still running but will slowly die over the next two months.  The new cycle will continue to get stronger over the next two months.  This is the great time of the year where you can use either the new or old cycle to long range forecast.  I actually don’t want to say the new cycle length, lol.  I have others that like to get that info from me so I am keeping it to myself for now.  However, it doesn’t effect any of you guys and gals.  So what will happen today and over the next few days?

Additional scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours for us today.

This Afternoon

Most of the scattered storms will be along and south of I-44.  The best chances will be in OK and AR.  I also expect another complex to roll along the front working east tonight.

SaturdayAM

So by morning, showers and thunderstorms from southern KS, SE KS, SW MO, OK and AR.  Some of these could be on the strong side with some additional heavy rains.  During the afternoon with the heating of the day, we will have pop-up storms again along and near the front.

Saturday PM

As we work into Sunday, this warm front will start to lift north and wash out.  However, still expect scattered thunderstorms along the front but farther north into eastern KS, western and central MO.

Sunday PM

Watch what happens by Monday.  Our big ridge of High pressure works back in and shoves the Jet Stream will north.  This allows the heat and humidity to really kick back in.

Monday 500

Look at the heat by Monday.

Monday temps

Ugh!!!!!!!!!  Your long range forecast is posted below based of the Heady Pattern.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.

August 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with the heat really kicking in by the middle of the week.  Hot temperatures stick around the rest of the week with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with slight chances for rain from Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with a few thunderstorms at the beginning of the week and then again late in the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A little cooler by the weekend with a few chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.

Tuesday PM Blog: At least some heat relief! More to come

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Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine is pretty good.  I am getting work done here at home over the past several hours and then I will head into work.  I am actually going to try to get outside for just a bit and do a few things before I head in today.  The temperatures again today aren’t so bad.  Well when you compare them to what we have seen over the past couple of weeks.  We continue to see a lot of clouds today with temperatures in the 80s across the region.  Our average highs are in the lower 90s for this time of the year.

We will have a few pop-up thunderstorms later today.  Most of these will be across central, NE OK and parts of AR.

This Afternoon

The best chances for thunderstorms will stay along the front across OK and AR.  Much of the same on Wednesday, a few scattered thunderstorms popping up.

Wednesday Evening

We will also watch our next wave dropping south across central and western KS.  This wave will sink in with a continued chance for a few thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

Friday precip

By late in the weekend, we will see the heat building back in which will stick around for next week with the humidity.

Sunday 500

Our old 49 day cycle is still plugging along as it will continue to for the next two months.  However, our new cycle is completely in place now and is slowly becoming the dominant cycle for the next 10-11 months or so.  I will continue to update you on this as this pattern comes to and end and we work into our new pattern here shortly.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.

August 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with the heat really kicking in by the middle of the week.  Hot temperatures stick around the rest of the week with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with slight chances for rain from Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with a few thunderstorms at the beginning of the week and then again late in the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A little cooler by the weekend with a few chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.

Wednesday AM Blog: The heat!!!!! It will stick around. Long range pattern

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I haven’t gotten a ton of blogging in recently with my Colorado and Montana trips.  However, I have been back from the Montana trip for a couple of days now it was fantastic.  I am addicted to jumping on a 4-wheeler and finding a trail that takes me a couple thousand feet up a mountain.  We can’t find that around here.  Now I need to get some lake time in which I haven’t been doing over the past month or so.  I hope all of you are having a great week.  I am getting back in the swing of things and dealing with these hot and humid conditions.  Holy cow, when I was driving home and stopped for gas, the farther south I got the hotter and more humid it got.  I knew when I had made it into MO.  It was more of rolling out of the car saying “Ugh, we are back in MO”  However, MO is one of the most beautiful states around!  We are so  hot and humid due to the huge ridge of high pressure over us.

500 today

This is going to continue into the weekend.  However, the high will break down just a bit.

Sunday 500

Because our high will break down some, this will allow some scattered thunderstorms to work in for the begging of next week.

Sunday night precip

Scattered thunderstorms with this front will stick around until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid with slight chances for thunderstorms, especially the first half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Cycle is Changing! More storms

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great.  Yes I know, I am on vacation again.  You have to remember that I don’t take any days off during the fall, winter and spring as that is our busy season.  So when the summer comes along it is game on.  I am in Montana this week and it is amazing.  Check out some pics.

DSC_1167

DSC_1173

DSC_1176

You can see the thunderstorm rolling in as well.  We had to high tale it down the mountain, but a great time.  Temperatures here have been chilly.  Highs around 65 with lows around 40.  Lets just say it has been a shock to my body compared to what we have had back home.  So what will be going on back home.  More thunderstorms.  In fact a batch of thunderstorms will be working across KS & MO through the morning hours.  Most of this will stay north of I-44 but something to watch.  Here is a look at the mid morning hours.

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.31.46 AM

By late in the day, another round of thunderstorms will start to pop-up.

 

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.34.57 AM

Some of these could be on the strong side and possibly severe.  The main threat will be hail and wind and the timing will be from 4pm into the overnight hours as the storms slowly sink south into central OK and AR.  By Thursday morning they will die off and we will wait for yet another band to fire up on Thursday afternoon along our cold front that is sinking south.

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.35.26 AM

Again, some of these could be strong to severe along the state line of KS/OK and into SW MO and NW AR.  As we work into Thursday night, these storms will drive SE into central AR and should affect the Little Rock metro area.  The main threat with these storms will be wind and hail once again.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week as our upper level ridge builds right back in.  We will have very slight chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

July 24th- 30th:  A hot start to the week with temperatures decreasing just a bit for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for the thunderstorms to start the week.  Temperatures will heat right back up for the second half of the week with dry conditions.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

Friday Night Blog: More heat! More thunderstorms!

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I hope you have had a great week and probably a shorter week with the 4th of July holiday.  Mine has been pretty good.  It has flown right on by as I have been very busy with work since my Colorado road trip last week.  Plus have fun over the 4th of July holiday.  I was very busy last night with all of the severe weather we had here in SW MO and SE KS.  Now I am getting ready for my next road trip in Montana which I will keep you updated on.  However, we still have more thunderstorms that are going to affect us over the next couple of days.  This is actually a little strange for this time of the year.  We do get some complexes of thunderstorms in the summer months.  However, we usually don’t get much severe weather in the summer months.  More thunderstorms tonight across the central and southern plains.

Midnight

We have a weak little stationary front that will continue to fire off thunderstorms across OK and AR tonight.  Some of these could be on the strong to severe side in central OK.  These storms will try to work into SE KS and SW MO by midnight.  However, these are mainly just looking strong right now.  As we work through the overnight hours, the thunderstorms will shift a little farther north along the KS/OK state line and then drive east into SW MO by morning.

Morning

I expect to have scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours again across KS, OK, MO and AR like we have had over the past several mornings.  Then we will break out and have partly sunny skies with temperatures heating up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  Pop-up afternoon thunderstorms will fire again along this weak front.

Saturday afternoon

Some of these Saturday PM could also be on the strong side as well.  This is all caused by little weak waves that are rotating through.  The Jet stream is well north, but we have these weak waves that are firing off these storms.

Saturday 500

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Our old 49 day cycle will still show itself for a couple more months as it slowly dies and the new cycle will slowly get stronger and stronger.  We also have La Nina that is finally now after a little back and forth play getting stronger.  This will also help our new cycle get much stronger at a quicker pace.  Of course I will keep you updated on this.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week once again.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

July 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with the hot temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures to end the week with thunderstorms chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

July 24th- 30th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Hot and dry the second half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.