Tuesday night/Wednesday AM Blog: Bigger system late this week

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week has been great so far.  Mine has been super busy as always but good so far.   A few scattered thunderstorms tonight into the morning hours, but the warm temperatures stick around the next few days.  A stronger system works in Thursday night through Saturday.  Remember we are right about a 57.5 day cycle this year.  That means this next system is the same as roughly 58 days ago.  Lets take a look.

You can see this big system working in on Friday.  Lets go back a couple cycles.  Here is March 24th.

You can see this same system one cycle ago.  Let go two cycles back.

So lets take a look at what we should see at the surface.  Thunderstorms work in Thursday night with severe weather that forms out to our west.

I don’t think these will be severe, but Friday evening an night definitely could be.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast just below this

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cooler start to the week with 70s for a good chunk of the week.  Thunderstorm chances back in on Tuesday and Wednesday with our next storm system.  Warming up with thunderstorms again heading into Memorial weekend.

May 28th-June 3rd:  Scattered thunderstorm through the holiday weekend.  Warm temperatures through most of the week with scattered thunderstorms till Tuesday.  Then another system works in with thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

June 4th-10th:  Warm with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then slight chances on Friday and Saturday.

June 11th-17th:  Hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

June 18th-24th:  Hot with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  A little cooler mid week behind this system, but heating back up late in the week.  Slight chances for storms on Saturday

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday night Blog: More changes rolling in. How does this fit our pattern? Next severe weather chances

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Good Thursday night!  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good, but so busy.  We have had so much rain over the past two weeks and several severe weather events.  It is definitely that time of the year.  At least we are drying out and temperatures are warming back up.  The past couple of days have been on the chilly side and way to wet.  I need it to dry out so I can mow the jungle I have growing around my house.  We will actually see a nice warming trend heading into the weekend.  Our average high is about 76 degrees and we should pass that by the time the weekend rolls around.  Let me show you what is causing our warm-up.

Look at the upper levels.  Our huge rainmaker is slowly pushing east and a huge ridge of high pressure is working in.  Look at the Jet Stream.  It is way up in southern Canada.  This will give us a nice warm-up for the weekend.

Temperatures will press 80 on Saturday and into the lower 80s for Sunday through Wednesday.  Our next storm system won’t even move in until next Wednesday.

You can see how odd the Jet Stream is.  This fits this odd strange pattern we have been in over the 7 to 8 months.  Some of our storms could be on the strong to severe side on Wednesday and Thursday.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A nice warm and dry start to the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms that could be strong to severe on Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry and nice into the weekend.

May 14th-20th:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend into the 80s for highs with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Staying warm most of the week with another round of strong to severe storms on Thursday and Friday.

May 21st-27th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Monday and Tuesday.  A second system right behind with possible severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler and dry for the first half of the weekend.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday which is memorial day.  We will stay warm most of the week with severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  Warm through the week.

June 11th-17th:  Hot and mainly dry through the week.

June 18th-24th:  A hot start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  A little cooler for the middle of the week with temperatures warming up late in the week.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday Evening Blog: Heavy rains work in and your long range forecast.

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Good Evening!  I hope you guys have had a great week so far.  Well I guess it is almost the weekend thankfully and it has been definitely on the wet side over the past week.  A lot of areas have picked up 5-7″ of rain over the past week.  We will continue to see very heavy rains tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We will stay in this current pattern through the summer into the early fall.  However, the cycle (distance between storm systems) will start to shift by mid summer. Let me show you where we are at in the pattern with our next big rain event rolling in.

You can see this massive system pushing into the central plains.  Now, this is the exact same system we saw back on Feb. 28th.  We also had severe weather the last time this rolled through.

So we are right on target with where we should be with this system.  So lets dig into it.  Thunderstorms really get going mid to late evening.  Here is a look at 11pm tonight.

Now any severe weather tonight will mainly stay south of the region along the warm front.  However, as the warm front lifts north tonight, our airmass will become a little bit more unstable.  Lets move to Saturday AM.

Heavy amounts of rain with a low severe threat.  If we had any severe storms the main threat will be hail across the region.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms Saturday with heavy amounts of rain.  Lets move to Saturday evening.

The heaviest rain will push east on Saturday night, but we will still have on and off showers on Sunday.

We will work on the much colder side of the system on Sunday as you can see the snow not that far to the west.  We will have a couple days to dry out before the next rain chances roll in on Wednesday and Thursday.

Remember to check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week with drier conditions working in for Monday and Tuesday.  Our next system works in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms.  However, at this time it doesn’t look severe.  Rain chances sneak back in for the weekend.

May 7th-13th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with thunderstorms chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry and a little cooler the rest of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms chances on Tuesday and Friday.  We will have a severe threat with both of these systems and temperatures stay fairly warm through the week.

May 21st-27th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Monday and Tuesday.  A second system right behind with possible severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler and dry for the first half of the weekend.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday which is memorial day.  We will stay warm most of the week with severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  Warm through the week.

June 11th-17th:  Hot and mainly dry through the week.

June 18th-24th:  A hot start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  A little cooler for the middle of the week with temperatures warming up late in the week.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday Night Blog: Heavy Rains and your long range forecast.

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Good Wednesday night!  I hope your week is going fantastic!  Mine has been pretty good actually.  I am enjoying this fantastic weather and have been getting a ton of projects done around the house.  I was off for a week as I had to take a road trip to Chicago and get a few changes on my migraine treatment.  But I am back and in the swing of things.  We have a couple of storm systems rolling in over the next three days that could give most of the area in the range of 2-4″ of rain.  That is a lot of rain, I should have mowed today!

Thunderstorms will roll in late tonight and Thursday morning.  However, the severe threat is low, but I will watch it.  Here is a look at late tonight.

I think severe threat is low but will be watched.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning but shift south by the afternoon hours.  However, as the next wave rolls in the rain will shift back north late Thursday night.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with heavy amounts of rain.

It looks like most of the severe threat will stay just south of the area.  But I will watch it.  Showers will stick around through at least Saturday morning.  Plus much cooler temperatures.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We are about to wrap with the 5th cycle we have seen in this stretch.  Here in just a couple of months the new cycle will start.  We  have been in a 57 day cycle since last July.  Here is a look at the system rolling through Friday and Saturday.

Now the Jet Stream was stronger back in February but here is the same system on Feb 24th 57 days earlier.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.  Here shortly I will take it out through the entire summer and into early fall week by week for you.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week, but a big warm-up by the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

April 30th-May 6th: A mild start to the week, but warming up quickly.  Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.   A little cooler the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Saturday.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

1:30pm Blog: Severe weather threat, plus your long range forecast

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Good Tuesday afternoon.  I hope everyone is having a great days so far.  Mine has been busy as always.  I am going to get ready and shoot into work here shortly.  However, I want to go over our severe weather threat for this evening.

The main threat is very large hail, gusty winds and a lower tornado threat.

Hail:  High threat

Wind:  Elevated threat

Tornado:  Low threat

Temperatures have been hanging around 60 degrees most of the day.  However, a warm front is surging north and that will pop our temperatures up this afternoon.  That warm front will be right on top of us during the evening hours.  This put us at the triple point of this wave.  That means where the warm front/cold front/low pressure all meet.  That atmosphere is decently stable right now, but will become unstable through the afternoon hours as the front surges north.  The greatest threat for severe weather is from Fredonia-Parsons-Pittsburg-Lamar-Lockwood and points south.  This system is right on track with my pattern.  We are in the 5th cycle of this current pattern.  We are sitting on a cycle of 57.5 days.  That means our weather systems match from 57 days ago and 57 days ahead down the road.  So lets look at what we should see through the evening hours.

Lets step through the radar.  Here is a look at 5pm.

You can see the storms getting going across NE OK and SE KS.  Now the tornado threat is low, but if we see a couple tornadoes it will occur between 5-7pm with the greatest area threat being NE OK and extreme SE KS.  Lets move to 7pm.

At this time we are looking at mainly a wind and hail threat as the storms push into SW MO and NW AR.

By 10pm, the storms are long gone and the colder air will filter in for Wednesday with on and off showers.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

April 9th-15th: Showers and thunderstorms working back in late Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be on the strong side.  We will see another system working in on Wednesday and Thursday with chances for thunderstorms.  Thunderstorm chances will return for the weekend.

April 16th-22nd: Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday. Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms. Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th: A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through. Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Monday Evening Blog: Severe weather chances and your super long range forecast.

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Good Monday Evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend!  Mine was pretty good.  I got a ton of cleaning done and even did some outside yard work and mowed.  My grass was quickly shooting up, so it was time to take care of it.  My yard is mole city.  Where I don’t have moles, I have huge holes from my dog digging up moles.  So to say the least, it was a rough ride on the mower.

The weather was great on Sunday.  We had the thunderstorms last night and this morning.  It was definitely a much cooler day today, but more changes working in.  We should shoot near 70 on Tuesday.  However, our next storm system quickly works in Tuesday night and Wednesday.  After midnight Tuesday night, we should see a batch of thunderstorms driving in.

We could see a few strong storms, but I am not expecting anything severe.  Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday morning, then mostly cloudy skies.  The main wave will kick out on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon, evening and through the night time hours.  Here is a look at early Wednesday evening.

I put the front on here for you.  We will be very close to the warm front.  Now north of the warm front, I really don’t expect a severe threat.  So the areas with a severe threat will be along and south of that front.  That means mainly the southern half of the viewing area.  Some of these should be strong to severe weather main threat being wind and hail.  I think the greatest severe threat will stay from NW AM and east central OK points south.

Now it stays active as we will continue to see wave after wave.  We are right on target and right where we should be with the Heady Pattern.  We have been sitting in a 57 day cycle since last July.  So this is our 5th cycle we have seen.  Check out my super long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild with temperatures into the 60s to start the week with showers on Sunday and Monday. We will warm up for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Thursday and then again on Saturday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

April 9th-15th: A cool start to the week but warming up by the middle of the week with temps most likely into the 80s.  A storm system on Thursday and Saturday with thunderstorms chances.

April 16th-22nd: Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday. Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms. Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th: A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through. Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Latest updated blog: Next severe weather events

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Good Wednesday Night/Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been super busy but it has turned out to be a pretty good week.  I am greatly enjoying the sun not setting till 7:30 during the evening.  This will make the weekends so much better with the additional daylight during the evenings.  Plus our temperatures are starting to warm back up.  We should make it up right around 60 on Thursday.

This warming trend will continue right into Friday and the weekend.  However, we do have a weak system that will work through late Thursday night and Friday.  This will give us a few scattered showers, mainly on Friday.

Even though we have a weak cold front that will drop through the area, I really don’t see much cold air behind the front.  Temperatures should be great over the weekend.  We have another weak wave on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with some scattered showers across the region.  However, I don’t see any severe weather chances until about next Thursday.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

Here is the upper level pattern for next Wednesday night.  You can see the storm system kicking out of the rockies.  We will warm up ahead of this system and could have strong to severe storms next Thursday.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We have been in a 57 day cycle now since late last July.  So we have gone through many cycles over the past 8 months or so.  Lets look back at the last two cycles.  We will go back 57 days.

You can see this same system kicking out back on January 24th.  Lets look back two cycles to November 27th.

And yet again this same exact system.  So you can see we are right on track with the pattern.  Check out my latest updated long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Warming up with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe next Thursday.  Cooling down a bit for Friday and Saturday.

March 26th-April 1st:  Are next system works in on Sunday with again chances for thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.  A little cooler for the beginning of the week before we warm up again by Wednesday and Thursday.  Another chances for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.  Then cooling back down for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A mild to warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler and dry for the rest of the week.  Warmest temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs into the 70s.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday that could be severe.  Great temperatures through the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances again by the weekend.  Warmest temperatures will be on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with highs well into the 80s.

April 16th-22nd:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms.  Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th:  A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warm and dry the rest of the week.  Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through.  Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th:  Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

Quick Look at the summer:  I have concerns it will be hot and very dry!  Looking at this years pattern just screams heat waves!  The rest of May will mainly be in the 80s to near 90 for highs.  We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch.  I will look into July and August in my next blog.

Monday Night Blog: Next storm systems and our long range forecast!

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Good Monday night!  I hope your weekend was fantastic!  Mine was pretty good.  I hung out with my boy and did a ton around the house.  I have been repainting the house.  Well, I have been painting hallways and bedrooms and touching up a lot of spots through the family room and kitchen that needed to seriously be touched up.  However, I think it is look pretty good.  I can’t wait for the nice spring weekends so I can get outside and do some seriously landscaping and I want to build a patio that I have in mind.  I love doing projects!

The temperatures were great today and will be again for us on Tuesday.  However, we do have changes rolling in.  Let me know show you what is going on.

In the purple is the Jet Stream.  I also in red circled our wave rolling through over the next 24 hours.  Now remember, we are in a 57 day cycle.  So if you go back 57 days we had this same system working through.  The difference is we had some blocking to the north which allowed cold Canadian and Arctic air to dive south.

The wave is in the same spot, but we just aren’t getting the blocking this time around.  This is similar to what we had two cycles ago in November.  The end result will be a fast moving system with a few scattered thunderstorms.

During the afternoon, we could have a few random pop-up storms, but the better shot will hold off until Tuesday night.

We won’t have many storms that pop-up late evening and during the overnight hours.  However, the ones that do could be on the strong side with a low severe threat in our area.  This is something I will watch through the day and see how it all comes together.

We will see a couple dry systems pass through later this week, but rain chances will hold off until next Sunday and Monday.

Now, we really aren’t going to have to wait for severe weather season.  We just haven’t had a winter at all and the Gulf of Mexico is warm.  Due to the temperatures not dropping off much this winter, we will cruise right into severe weather season.

My First Take:  We aren’t going to have event after event.  Meaning I think we will have about average severe weather events which usually is in the 8-12 range of events in a severe weather season.  However, the ones we do get could be on the very powerful side.  So that is something I want to dig into more on my next few blogs.

Gary Lezak (Chief Meteorologist KSHB(NBC) in Kansas City) and I have been working on a business together for a while now.  Check out weather2020.com we have our long range pattern now built into a model where you can plug in any zip code and get a specific forecast months in advance.  It is pretty cool!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with thunderstorm chances late Sunday and into Monday.  Briefly cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures right back in for the rest of the week.  Rain chances again late Thursday through Saturday AM.

March 12th-18th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures work in with this system and leftover showers for Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return late in the week with thunderstorm chances for the weekend.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

March 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and rain on Monday.  Another fairly strong system moves in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe.  Cooling down for the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday Evening: Changes moving in. Look at the pattern. Will we have anymore snow?

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Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have enjoyed the great weather the past few days.  I have been way under the weather and just getting into work today was a tough chore for me.  So, I have missed out on the great temperatures.  Much colder temperatures are working in over the next few days.  Let me show you what is going on with our next few storm systems.

Most of the moisture is going to stay north of us.  However, after midnight our cold front will roll through and start dropping our temperatures.  Look at the snow up north!  I would love to have some of that.  Look how much they are going to get.

For the second winter in a row we have been in a very bad pattern for winter weather.  The patterns have been fairly active, but we have really had a lack of arctic air.  We had a few blasts back in December and January, but we just can’t get it to slide south.  In Joplin, we have had 2.5″ of snow and about 3/4″ of ice.  We average 16″ per season.  I knew we would be below average this winter, but I thought we could at least get 10″.  My forecast was for 10-15″ and we aren’t going to make it.  We have only had 4.5″ over the past two seasons.  There are a few systems that we may get some winter weather (not a great chance) over the next two and a half weeks.  After that we are going to roar into severe weather season.  Instead of an April start, it should be the second half of March.  Here is where we are at in the pattern.  We are on a 57 day cycle this year and have been since early August.  Here is a look at our next system on Sunday.

I put the Jet Stream on here in purple and L’s where the systems are.  You can see the on top of us is Sunday’s, then the next one would be Tuesday’s.  Lets go back 57 days to December 31st.

These two maps are almost spot on.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cooler week, but not bad.  We will watch rain chances on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday with the next system.  Another system will roll in with rain chances on Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with 3 fast moving systems with rain chances.  Rain chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures will warm up a bit the second half of the week.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Friday AM Blog: Right on track with the Heady Pattern. Next few systems!

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Comments Off on Friday AM Blog: Right on track with the Heady Pattern. Next few systems!

Good Friday morning!  I hope your week is going fantastic!  Mine has been pretty good, but super busy.  I am ready for the weekend as I think most people usually are.  Plus we are going to see our second great weather weekend in a row.  That is very hard to say in the month of February.  This has been a very interesting winter.  In Joplin, we average 16″ of snow in a season.  Last year we had a record low of 2″ and this season so far we are at 2.5″.  That is a total of 4.5″ when we should be at 32″.  That is crazy!  Again this year we are just in a bad pattern.  We haven’t been able to get much arctic air and we haven’t had a ton of storm systems.  This highly worries me as we work into late spring and summer.  Could we be heading toward drought conditions for the summer.  I am going to dig into this and our severe weather outlook for the spring here shortly.

We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We continue this years cycle at about 56-57 days.  This is the same cycle that we have been in since late July.  That means this cycle will be shifting once again here in about 5 months.  Take a look at what we are seeing for today.

We have a weak wave across Texas.  This will give us clouds over the next couple days and maybe a random showers.  Look at the system off the California coast.  That is a bigger system that will move in on Monday and Tuesday.  First off, lets look at Saturday.

You can see most of the showers stay SE of us on Saturday.  However, just close enough we could see a random showers.  Look out west.  California is getting rocked once again.  They have thankfully gotten a lot of rain lately.  That is the system that gives us rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Here is a look at Monday.

It will stay decently active from this point on.  Our next system, that again looks like mainly rain will roll in on Thursday and Friday.  Here is a look at Friday.

After this point, we could see the arctic trying to return for a short period of time.  Lets see how it falls in place.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying mild most of the week with rain chances returning late Thursday, Friday and some showers on Saturday.

February 26th-March 4th:  A much colder week with rain chances returning for Monday and Tuesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain chances on Wednesday.  Warming up for the weekend.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.