Latest updated blog: Next severe weather events

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Good Wednesday Night/Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been super busy but it has turned out to be a pretty good week.  I am greatly enjoying the sun not setting till 7:30 during the evening.  This will make the weekends so much better with the additional daylight during the evenings.  Plus our temperatures are starting to warm back up.  We should make it up right around 60 on Thursday.

This warming trend will continue right into Friday and the weekend.  However, we do have a weak system that will work through late Thursday night and Friday.  This will give us a few scattered showers, mainly on Friday.

Even though we have a weak cold front that will drop through the area, I really don’t see much cold air behind the front.  Temperatures should be great over the weekend.  We have another weak wave on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with some scattered showers across the region.  However, I don’t see any severe weather chances until about next Thursday.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

Here is the upper level pattern for next Wednesday night.  You can see the storm system kicking out of the rockies.  We will warm up ahead of this system and could have strong to severe storms next Thursday.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We have been in a 57 day cycle now since late last July.  So we have gone through many cycles over the past 8 months or so.  Lets look back at the last two cycles.  We will go back 57 days.

You can see this same system kicking out back on January 24th.  Lets look back two cycles to November 27th.

And yet again this same exact system.  So you can see we are right on track with the pattern.  Check out my latest updated long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Warming up with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe next Thursday.  Cooling down a bit for Friday and Saturday.

March 26th-April 1st:  Are next system works in on Sunday with again chances for thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.  A little cooler for the beginning of the week before we warm up again by Wednesday and Thursday.  Another chances for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.  Then cooling back down for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A mild to warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler and dry for the rest of the week.  Warmest temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs into the 70s.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday that could be severe.  Great temperatures through the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances again by the weekend.  Warmest temperatures will be on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with highs well into the 80s.

April 16th-22nd:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms.  Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th:  A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warm and dry the rest of the week.  Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through.  Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th:  Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

Quick Look at the summer:  I have concerns it will be hot and very dry!  Looking at this years pattern just screams heat waves!  The rest of May will mainly be in the 80s to near 90 for highs.  We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch.  I will look into July and August in my next blog.

Monday Night Blog: Next storm systems and our long range forecast!

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Good Monday night!  I hope your weekend was fantastic!  Mine was pretty good.  I hung out with my boy and did a ton around the house.  I have been repainting the house.  Well, I have been painting hallways and bedrooms and touching up a lot of spots through the family room and kitchen that needed to seriously be touched up.  However, I think it is look pretty good.  I can’t wait for the nice spring weekends so I can get outside and do some seriously landscaping and I want to build a patio that I have in mind.  I love doing projects!

The temperatures were great today and will be again for us on Tuesday.  However, we do have changes rolling in.  Let me know show you what is going on.

In the purple is the Jet Stream.  I also in red circled our wave rolling through over the next 24 hours.  Now remember, we are in a 57 day cycle.  So if you go back 57 days we had this same system working through.  The difference is we had some blocking to the north which allowed cold Canadian and Arctic air to dive south.

The wave is in the same spot, but we just aren’t getting the blocking this time around.  This is similar to what we had two cycles ago in November.  The end result will be a fast moving system with a few scattered thunderstorms.

During the afternoon, we could have a few random pop-up storms, but the better shot will hold off until Tuesday night.

We won’t have many storms that pop-up late evening and during the overnight hours.  However, the ones that do could be on the strong side with a low severe threat in our area.  This is something I will watch through the day and see how it all comes together.

We will see a couple dry systems pass through later this week, but rain chances will hold off until next Sunday and Monday.

Now, we really aren’t going to have to wait for severe weather season.  We just haven’t had a winter at all and the Gulf of Mexico is warm.  Due to the temperatures not dropping off much this winter, we will cruise right into severe weather season.

My First Take:  We aren’t going to have event after event.  Meaning I think we will have about average severe weather events which usually is in the 8-12 range of events in a severe weather season.  However, the ones we do get could be on the very powerful side.  So that is something I want to dig into more on my next few blogs.

Gary Lezak (Chief Meteorologist KSHB(NBC) in Kansas City) and I have been working on a business together for a while now.  Check out weather2020.com we have our long range pattern now built into a model where you can plug in any zip code and get a specific forecast months in advance.  It is pretty cool!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with thunderstorm chances late Sunday and into Monday.  Briefly cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures right back in for the rest of the week.  Rain chances again late Thursday through Saturday AM.

March 12th-18th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures work in with this system and leftover showers for Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return late in the week with thunderstorm chances for the weekend.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

March 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and rain on Monday.  Another fairly strong system moves in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe.  Cooling down for the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday Evening: Changes moving in. Look at the pattern. Will we have anymore snow?

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Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have enjoyed the great weather the past few days.  I have been way under the weather and just getting into work today was a tough chore for me.  So, I have missed out on the great temperatures.  Much colder temperatures are working in over the next few days.  Let me show you what is going on with our next few storm systems.

Most of the moisture is going to stay north of us.  However, after midnight our cold front will roll through and start dropping our temperatures.  Look at the snow up north!  I would love to have some of that.  Look how much they are going to get.

For the second winter in a row we have been in a very bad pattern for winter weather.  The patterns have been fairly active, but we have really had a lack of arctic air.  We had a few blasts back in December and January, but we just can’t get it to slide south.  In Joplin, we have had 2.5″ of snow and about 3/4″ of ice.  We average 16″ per season.  I knew we would be below average this winter, but I thought we could at least get 10″.  My forecast was for 10-15″ and we aren’t going to make it.  We have only had 4.5″ over the past two seasons.  There are a few systems that we may get some winter weather (not a great chance) over the next two and a half weeks.  After that we are going to roar into severe weather season.  Instead of an April start, it should be the second half of March.  Here is where we are at in the pattern.  We are on a 57 day cycle this year and have been since early August.  Here is a look at our next system on Sunday.

I put the Jet Stream on here in purple and L’s where the systems are.  You can see the on top of us is Sunday’s, then the next one would be Tuesday’s.  Lets go back 57 days to December 31st.

These two maps are almost spot on.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cooler week, but not bad.  We will watch rain chances on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday with the next system.  Another system will roll in with rain chances on Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with 3 fast moving systems with rain chances.  Rain chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures will warm up a bit the second half of the week.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Friday AM Blog: Right on track with the Heady Pattern. Next few systems!

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Good Friday morning!  I hope your week is going fantastic!  Mine has been pretty good, but super busy.  I am ready for the weekend as I think most people usually are.  Plus we are going to see our second great weather weekend in a row.  That is very hard to say in the month of February.  This has been a very interesting winter.  In Joplin, we average 16″ of snow in a season.  Last year we had a record low of 2″ and this season so far we are at 2.5″.  That is a total of 4.5″ when we should be at 32″.  That is crazy!  Again this year we are just in a bad pattern.  We haven’t been able to get much arctic air and we haven’t had a ton of storm systems.  This highly worries me as we work into late spring and summer.  Could we be heading toward drought conditions for the summer.  I am going to dig into this and our severe weather outlook for the spring here shortly.

We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We continue this years cycle at about 56-57 days.  This is the same cycle that we have been in since late July.  That means this cycle will be shifting once again here in about 5 months.  Take a look at what we are seeing for today.

We have a weak wave across Texas.  This will give us clouds over the next couple days and maybe a random showers.  Look at the system off the California coast.  That is a bigger system that will move in on Monday and Tuesday.  First off, lets look at Saturday.

You can see most of the showers stay SE of us on Saturday.  However, just close enough we could see a random showers.  Look out west.  California is getting rocked once again.  They have thankfully gotten a lot of rain lately.  That is the system that gives us rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Here is a look at Monday.

It will stay decently active from this point on.  Our next system, that again looks like mainly rain will roll in on Thursday and Friday.  Here is a look at Friday.

After this point, we could see the arctic trying to return for a short period of time.  Lets see how it falls in place.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying mild most of the week with rain chances returning late Thursday, Friday and some showers on Saturday.

February 26th-March 4th:  A much colder week with rain chances returning for Monday and Tuesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain chances on Wednesday.  Warming up for the weekend.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Friday Morning: Big changes the next couple of days. Updated long range forecast!

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Good Friday morning!  I am in serious blog mode pumping them out this morning.  It is time for me to get everything back on track!  I am so sick of this weather  pattern.  Gary Lezak(Chief in KC) talk all year long about I hope we get snow this winter.  The past two winters have just killed us.  We look at the pattern we are in and say “well maybe next year”.  It is a killer to be in these type of patterns.  So what is coming up?  Here is my latest video-blog.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Temperatures near average through the first half of the week, but cooling down the second half of the week.  Slight chances for rain and snow Thursday through Saturday.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with rain and slight chances for snow Sunday through Tuesday.  Colder temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 26th-March 4th:  warming up for the beginning of the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder the rest of the week with rain chances returning for Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain chances on Wednesday.  Warming up for the weekend.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday Night/Wednesday AM Long range blog: Things are picking up!

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good, no complaints.  However, the days are flying by like always.

The weather has been pretty good over the past few days.  However, we are going to start to cool down a bit over the next few days.  Temperatures cooler Wednesday, but still not bad.

Let me show you where we are in the pattern.  We sit at a 57 days cycle this year, so take a look at the upper level map.

You can see the Jet Stream in purple passing right over us with a three main waves.  Pacific NW, Mexico, and the NE.  Lets go back 57 days.

You can see the very similar look on December 5th, that we have today.  Our next wave rolls in on Saturday.

This will give us a few showers, but a much stronger system rolls in on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  Yes the arctic air returns.

You can see the storm system diving south with the cold arctic air.

Well those temps look like fun!

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A nice mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  With cold arctic air returning on Wednesday, we could see a little light snow.  Temperatures will warm up a bit by the weekend with rain chances returning.

February 12th-18th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday with colder temperatures working back in.  Mild temps work back in late week with rain chances on Saturday.

February 19th-25th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler with snow chances on Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.

Latest long range forecast: When are we going to see snow?

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Good Thursday night!  I hope your week has been great so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  The weather has been gloomy and cold the past few days, but we will look  up here soon.  Actually the weather has been boring as of late and will actually stay that way for at least another week.  Then we should start to see some changes.  Let me show you what is going on.

Here is what is going on right now.  Look at the area of high pressure out to our west.  This is forcing the Jet Stream up north into western Canada and forcing it back south across the central plains.  This allow us to stay cold, but at the same time it is blocking any big systems to work in.  This is the same part of the pattern that we have on December 1st, 57 days earlier.

Back on December 1st, the High pressure was pushed a little farther west, but still we had the cold temperatures in place then like now.  High will start to warm a little bit for us over the next couple days into the lower 40s.  This is still below normal but looking better.

So lets jump down the road into Superbowl weekend.

A system works through next Saturday and Sunday.  As of now it looks like mainly rain but needs to be watched.

However, the next week on the 7th and 8th, is when we should get another blast of cold air that could be arctic.

You can see the huge system across southern Canada.  This is the same system that gave us the arctic blast on December 11th.

If we can get the arctic air, this is what provide us with better chances for winter weather for the rest of the month as we renter this stretch of the pattern.  However, the bottom line is we aren’t in the best pattern again this winter to get big winter storms.  We will see a few chances for winter weather in February, and then we will be done.  I think we have three chances for a storm in February and that is it.

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with the second half of the week cooling down just a bit.  We should be on the dry side most of the week until a storm system with rain chances work in on Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain or snow on Sunday.  Staying cold through the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Dry the rest of the week with cool temperatures.

February 12th-18th:  Mild with rain chances again on Sunday and Monday.  With colder air working in, we could see a little bit of snow for Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures warm right back up and stay mild into the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.

Wednesday Night/Thursday AM Blog: When is our next chance for snow? Plus super long range forecast.

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Good Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good so far.  I am always busy with work stuff, so everyday is jammed pack it seems.  I did get a lot done around the house today which is always a plus.  Also the temperatures were much warmer today, which is nice.  We will stay in general above normal for the next week with just a few hiccups.  We do have several storm system which will be affecting us over the next couple of weeks.  We just had the ice storm this past weekend and now we have little weak waves over us.  Lets take a look.

These will give us a few showers over the next couple of days, but most of the rain will stay south of the area.  However, by the weekend a stronger system works in.

You can see the strong system to our south on Sunday.  This is a classic set-up for a great snowstorm.  However, if you look to our north, there is another Low pressure.  All of the cold air wraps around it and doesn’t allow the cold air to dive deep into the central plains.  The end result is this will be a rain system.

Lets move to next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Look at the huge storm system across the central plains.  This is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.  We have been sitting at about 56-57 day cycle since the summer time.  Lets go back to the last time this system rolled through.  Here is a look at November 29th.

This is a closer look but clearly the same system rolling back through.  Again like in November, I think this will mainly track north of us.  Meaning we will most likely see rain with colder temperatures plunging south behind it.

Check out below, I have our long range forecast posted through March.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with rain chances increasing late Tuesday and into Wednesday.  With the colder air working in on Thursday, we could see a few snow showers.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

January 29th-February 4th:  Cold temperatures stick around with a few weak waves rolling through the first have of the week.  This will give us some rain and snow chances from Sunday through Wednesday.  Cold temperatures stick around the rest of the week.

February 5th-11th:  Mild temperatures with rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder air works right back in for the rest of the week.  We will start to warm back up for the weekend.

February 12th-18th:  Mild with rain chances again on Sunday and Monday.  With colder air working in, we could see a little bit of snow for Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures warm right back up and stay mild into the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.

Monday Morning: Storm systems to watch, especially late this week!

by

Hey, good Monday morning.  I hope you ended up having a great weekend.  Mine was pretty good!  I hung out with my son all weekend and also got a lot done around the house.  It amazes me how fast the weekends fly right on by.   So back to reality, it is Monday!

After these bitterly cold temperatures, we have slowly started warming up over the past few days.  This trend will continue over the next few days with three waves to watch over the next week.  Here is my latest video-cast on what is moving in.  Also, where are we at in the Heady Pattern.

 

Don’t forget!  My long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through most of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  Warming up for the weekend ahead of our next bigger system.

January 22nd-28th:  Rain and snow chances return from Sunday through Tuesday.  Another system with rain chances for Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Rain and snow chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  Mainly a cold week with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Another system on Friday with slight chances for rain or snow.

February 12th-18th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with a warm up late in the week with rain chances on Thursday and possible snow chances on Friday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with a warm up by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Arctic air, some snow and your long range forecast!

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your having a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good, just flying right on by as most of them do.  I am hoping to have a nice productive morning and get a lot done before I head off to work this afternoon.  Unfortunately it is so cold across the area.  My dog didn’t even want to go out this morning.  The cold arctic air is going to be sticking around for the next several days.  Let me show what is going on for us over the next few days and what is to come.  Here is a look at the upper levels with our next wave rolling through.

We are looking at the Jet Stream in purple with the cold arctic air slamming south.  This is the same part of the pattern we had in early November.  I put a weak “L” showing our next wave.  This will drive even colder air south over the next two days and a little light snow.  We will have a band of light snow just north of us later tonight.

Here is a look at shortly after midnight tonight.   You can see the light snow spreading across the I-70 corridor.  This will try to sneak SE through the overnight hours.  By the morning hours, light snow will spread as far south as the I-44 corridor.

However, this will be light and quickly push out of here by late morning.

We could still see a few snow showers during the afternoon but it doesn’t look like a big deal.  Snowfall amounts will be the highest north of us.

South of I-44, we should only have a dusting or so.  As you work farther north in our viewing area, we should have a dusting to 1/2″  Our northern counties and towns, Nevada to Ft. Scott may pick up an isolated 1″ of snow.  As you can see this is a very small light event with the heaviest snows staying north of the area.

I really don’t see much in the way snowstorms heading toward us over the next couple of weeks.  We are just in a bad part of the pattern.  Let me show you why.

Look at what happens next week.  The cold arctic air shifts east and we get under a ridge of high pressure allowing our temperatures to warm right back up.  I really don’t see any changes until the following week as we fall back into the mid to late November version of the pattern.  Here is a look at November 17th.

Once this part of the pattern returns, we will get stronger storms systems working into the area.  If we can get some arctic air,  we will have chances for some bigger wintry weather events.

Long range forecast is below.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warming back up with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with a wave working through.  A second wave, with cooler temperatures works through on Thursday and Friday with rain chances.

January 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with our next wave working through.  If we can get a little cooler air on the back side of the system, we could have a little wintry weather.  Staying cool and dry the rest of the week until rain chances return for the weekend.

January 22nd-28th:  Rain and snow chances return from Sunday through Tuesday.  Another system with rain chances for Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Rain and snow chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  Mainly a cold week with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Another system on Friday with slight chances for rain or snow.

February 12th-18th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with a warm up late in the week with rain chances on Thursday and possible snow chances on Friday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with a warm up by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.