Wednesday AM Blog: Snow chances increasing, plus a look down the road.

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Good early Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  I will be out of town for a while today which I explain below in the video.  However, will have a lot of time to work on the long range blog and forecasts.  We have a storm system or very weak one working in today with a little bit of snow.  Here is my latest video blog.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

December 11th-17th:  Cool with rain chances on Sunday, then staying dry through Tuesday.  Cool with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday with cold temperatures for the rest of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with mainly dry condition through the week.  We will cool back down for Christmas Eve.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  The first half of the week will be cold and dry.  Mild with rain chances on Thursday with colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday with slight chances for snow.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday PM Blog: Several waves moving in. Plus your long range forecast.

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Good afternoon!  I hope you have had a great week!  Of course it is almost the weekend and I am sure everyone is ready for Saturday and Sunday.  I actually need to get a little bit of shopping done as I will be out of town for the next couple of weeks.  However, I will still be here updating you.  Here is my latest video-blog to let you know what is moving in and where we are in the pattern.

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Rain chances on Monday, with a few left over showers Tuesday and Wednesday.  As the colder air works in we could see a few snow showers by Wednesday.  Much colder for the rest of the week.  Rain and snow chances return for the weekend.

December 11th-17th:  Cold with slight chances for snow on Sunday.  Staying cold through the week with rain chances on Wednesday with some snow chances on Thursday.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with mainly dry condition through the week.  We will cool back down for Christmas Eve.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  The first half of the week will be cold and dry.  Mild with rain chances on Thursday with colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday with slight chances for snow.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Winter Forecast, plus your long range forecast.

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Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great so far.  I am sitting here listening to some music and pounding out a few blogs.  On this one I post my winter forecast, but on my next blog I will take my long range forecast out through March!  So here is what I am thinking for our winter forecast.

 

 

I will keep you updated.  Long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances back in on Tuesday and then again a slight chance on Black Friday.  Temperatures cool back down for the second half of the week.

November 27th-December 3rd:  A storm system (actually a couple) move in for the first half of the week with rain and possible snow chances by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning colder for the second half of the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures by Monday.  With the colder temperatures we could see a rain snow mix on Sunday or Monday.  Mild temperatures return by late week with rain chances by the weekend.

December 11th-17th:  A cool start to the week with rain or snow chances early in the week.  The cool temperatures stick around through most of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with rain chances by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  Cold with snow chances early in the week.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 1st-8th:  A cold start to the new year with dry conditions.  We will see a storm system with snow chances working in on Friday and Saturday.

 

Friday Night Blog: Colder temps and a more active pattern.

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Good Friday night!  I hope everyone has had a great week and of course ready for the weekend.  I am always ready for the weekend, plus I have been on the sick side and need the weekend to rest up.  Also, it is going to be chilly!  I need to get one more mow in as well b/c my grass it to high and I hate it being tall in the winter months.

Well we have had huge changes over the past day or so.  Lets look and see what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  The system that just passed through is the same system we had from September 26th-28th.  Lets take a look.

saturday-500

You can see the system that just rolled through now across the great lakes.  You can see this same system back on September 26th.

sept-26th

They actually tracked in pretty similar spots.  This time around it was stronger and a little farther south with a stronger Jet Stream.  As the Jet continues to get stronger, our systems will continue to track farther south.  Temperatures will be chilly today with a lot of 40s for highs, but we will warm up a bit ahead of the next system on Tuesday.

tuesday-precip

We will cool back down a bit for Thanksgiving and Black Friday with a slight chance for rain on Friday.  Our next system rolls in or starts rolling in over the holiday weekend.  This should be a couple waves with the main wave around the 30th.

wednesday-30th

This is interesting because the GFS model wants to take this system deep into the central plains.  If it can go pretty decently far south, this could bring some wintry weather.  The next system behind this is around 5-6th of December.

october-4th

Another deep southern system possible, this would be the same system we saw on October 12th.

october-12th

I will keep you updated.  Long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances back in on Tuesday and then again a slight chance on Black Friday.  Temperatures cool back down for the second half of the week.

November 27th-December 3rd:  A storm system (actually a couple) move in for the first half of the week with rain and possible snow chances by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning colder for the second half of the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures by Monday.  With the colder temperatures we could see a rain snow mix on Sunday or Monday.  Mild temperatures return by late week with rain chances by the weekend.

December 11th-17th:  A cool start to the week with rain or snow chances early in the week.  The cool temperatures stick around through most of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with rain chances by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  Cold with snow chances early in the week.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 1st-8th:  A cold start to the new year with dry conditions.  We will see a storm system with snow chances working in on Friday and Saturday.

The Heady Pattern is finally picking up!

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Well I am sorry I haven’t blogged on my long range site more, I have actually been bored with the weather.  However, we are entering my favorite seasons of the year.  Winter and spring you just can’t beat across this area.  Now, I am going to stress, the 2016-2017 Heady Pattern isn’t the best in the world.  However, I do see some signs that show some signs of hope.  I mean seriously, can it get worse than last years record low snowfalls around the area?  I sure hope not!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I am currently working on my winter forecast that I will post next week.  I have it pretty much done in my head, but I need to get it down in graphic form of course.  So let dig into what is going to happen over the next few weeks.

Later this week we have a strong storm system pushing out into the central plains.  This is the same system that we had back on September 25th.  Remember, even though we are in a new pattern, the new cycle has been cycling for months.  I have had this in my new model for several months now cranking out what should happen down the road.  So lets take a look at this system working in Thursday night and Friday morning.

friday-500

I put a big red circle around our huge storm system on Friday.  So lets go back to September 25th, this was the last time it cycled through the area.

september-25th

Now this is the exact same system, but a weaker and farther north version due to a weaker Jet Stream.  In fact the next time it rolls through it will be farther south around January 10th.  We will have showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday across the central plains.

friday-precip

However, the big story will be the much colder temperatures plunging south for the weekend.  Take a look at overnight lows for Saturday night.

sunday-am-temps

We will see another system roll through next Tuesday and Wednesday with cool showers.  The next time this rolls through I expect this to be a snow situation.  Rain chances on Black Friday with a fron dropping through, but not great chances.  So lets move to the following week.  Let go to November 29th.

nov-29th-500

With cool air in place, this could be a cool rain or a wintry mix.  The last time this rolled through was October 4th.

october-4th

Again the Jet Stream was weaker, but still this was a powerhouse system.  Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  A cool start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return late in the week with slight chances for rain by Black Friday.  Cooling back down over the holiday weekend.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Quickly cooling down early in the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  As the colder air works in we will have wintry weather chances on Tuesday.  Cold temperatures stick around through the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return for the weekend.  Also rain chances return for Saturday.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures by Monday.  Colder temperatures through the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return for late week with rain chances by Saturday.

December 11th-17th:  A cool start to the week with rain or snow chances early in the week.  The cool temperatures stick around through most of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with rain chances by Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  Cold with snow chances early in the week.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 1st-8th:  A cold start to the new year with dry conditions.  We will see a storm system with snow chances working in on Friday and Saturday.

Tuesday Evening Blog: One system working out, what is next?

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Good Tuesday Evening.  I hope you have had a great Election Tuesday and it should be an interesting evening as the numbers come rolling in.  I did get out and vote and have in every election that I have been able to dating back to 2000.  I will be very happy when this election is over and I don’t have to see political adds on TV and FB anymore!!!!!!!!!  The weather today was also gloomy.  We had showers this morning and clouds throughout the day.  Here is a look at the storm system of the day.

500

This is an upper level map that shows the Jet Stream and where the storm systems are.  I marked the storm systems with a red L and the Jet Stream is in purple.  Notice how far north the Jet Stream is, so this keeps all of the systems away from us.  The bottom line is, not much is going to happen over the next several days.  Here is my latest video-cast that explains what will happen over the next several weeks.

 

Remember, my long range forecast is below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Mild temperatures with a storm system working in by Friday with rain chances.  Cooler temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

November 20th-26th:  The first half of the week should be on the cold side with the second half of the week warming back up.  Rain chances working in for Thanksgiving and Black Friday.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Staying cool through the first half of the week.  Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week.  Rain or snow chances on Monday. Rain chances also on Thursday and Saturday.

December 4th-10th:  Another cold start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  A storm system works in for Thursday and Friday with rain chances.

December 11th-17th:  Cool with rain or snow chances to start the week.  Stay cool through the middle of the week with mild temperatures returning late in the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mainly a mild week with rain chances from Thursday through Christmas Day.  If we can get enough colder air working air, maybe some wintry weather by Christmas.

Saturday Evening Blog: Interesting Pattern

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Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope you are having a great weekend so far!  Mine has been pretty good.  I got up this morning and did a few things around the house and then shot off to my sons basketball games.  He had two back to back and then now back home doing a little work.  I know it is great outside but I am actually thinking about a nice relaxing nap.  That is the sign that I am getting older.  When I want to take a nap on a Saturday late afternoon.  However, I am going to do what I want to do, ha ha.

So what is going on with the Heady Pattern?  Well lets look at what is going on with the next couple of days first.  We have cooler air in place right now which is going to allow some chilly nights.  We will drop all the way down near 40 degrees tonight in a lot of places.

sunday-am-lows

High temperatures look great again tomorrow.

sunday-pm-highs

We do have a weak wave that will roll in on Monday.

monday-500

This wave should produce a few scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday.

monday-precip

However, lets start looking down the road.  We know the new 2016-2017 Heady Pattern is completely set.  The pattern sets up each and every year from the late summer and into the fall.  The pattern starts to set up in August, but the majority of the set-up occurs from September 21st through October 15th.  Now, the recurring cycle with-in the pattern sets up way ahead of the pattern.  The cycle sets up as early as May or as late as August.  It just depends on what is going on that year.  I have been testing this over the past 5 years and there is a 2-3 day shrink or stretch in the cycle length during the prime set-up of the pattern (September 21st-October 15th) depending on La Nina or El Nino.  Now that I have this tested, and proven, thankfully I can get that cycle down during the summer months and know how to adjust it during the fall.  This is amazing and exciting for me!  For you, all you want to know is what is the forecast going to do, lol.  So lets look at next weekend.

next-saturday-500

This is the upper level map for next Saturday.  There is a nice big ridge across the western half of the country with a storm system in the eastern half of the country.  The storm system in the eastern half of the country will funnel cooler air south across the central plains.  This is the same set-up we had back on September 22nd, but a much weaker version just do to the weaker jet stream.

sept-22nd

So you can see how long of a cycle we are in, also the shrink in the cycle that takes place at this moment.  Lets go two weeks out.

sunday-20th-500

We are the weekend ahead of Thanksgiving now.  The pattern is greatly picking up and the Jet Stream is getting much stronger.  The cold air is pushing south with waves working across the country pretty quickly. This is the part of the pattern that we were in around October 1st.

october-1st

This is a very odd pattern, as they all seem to be every year.  However, we should get some systems in here to give us a few snowstorms during the winter months.  Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

This week:  Mild temperatures through the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler on Friday and Saturday.

November 13th-19th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances late Sunday and Monday.  Turning much colder for the rest of the week.

November 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returing by Monday with  rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving.  Cooler temperatures work in on Black Friday with rain chances sticking around with temperatures dropping more for the holiday weekend.

November 27th-December 3rd:  A cold start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday and Wensday with cooler temperatures working in for Thursday.  Rain or snow chances for Thursday with cold temperatures the rest of the week.

December 4th-10th:  The first half of the week should be mild with rain chances on Wednesday.  Cooler temperatures the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Thursday and Friday.

December 11th-17th:  Mainly a cool and dry week with just slight chances for rain or snow on Thursday.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mainly mild through the week with rain chances from Wednesday into Christmas.  If we can get some arctic air to plunge south we may have to worry about some icy areas.  I will watch this.

Friday Evening Blog: Warm temperatures continue. When will we see a change. Long range forecast.

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Good Friday evening.  I hope you have had a fantastic week.  To be honest I am bored with this weather.   We have been warm, dry and boring.  Chances will come but when?  Ugh!!!!!!!!  Well not this weekend.  Check out the warm temperatures sticking around for Saturday.

saturday

However, I do see some changes down the road.  Here is my latest video-cast.  Check it out.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances working in from Tuesday through Thursday.  Mild the rest of the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures by mid week.  Warming up by late week with rain chances.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Saturday PM Blog: Great temperatures! Plus a look down the road

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Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope you are enjoying your weekend so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I am relaxing here at home getting some work done.  My plans are to get outside and enjoy the great weather here shortly as the temperatures are fantastic for us today.  High temps today should be into the lower 70s.  Look at the highs for us today across the southern and central plains.

temps

Most area will warm into the upper 70s on Sunday.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for Thursday, but mild temperatures once again for Friday and Saturday.

October 30th-November 5th: We will start the week mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning colder for the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up late in the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with our next storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday through Tuesday.  A second system works in on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with precip chances Wednesday through Friday. We will stay cool into the weekend.  I am going to say with this second system we should stay rain, but flurries aren’t out of the question.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Tuesday PM Blog: A few showers and your updated long range forecast

by

Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been getting some things done around the house today before I shoot off to work.  At least the weather is pretty nice and it isn’t near as windy as it has been over the the past few days.  We did have a cold front that slid through earlier this morning.  So we have north winds now which have cooled us off a few degrees and will give us a few scattered showers over the next 24 hours.

tonight-precip

Most of the showers will be south of I-44 tonight and they will be light.  As we have out front hanging around on Wednesday, a few scattered showers will still be possible.

wednesday-pm

Then the cooler air works in for Thursday and Friday.  By Friday morning, overnight lows could be down near 40.  Here is my latest video-cast on what I am expecting over the next several weeks.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with slight chances for rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler temperatures work in toward the weekend.

October 30th-November 5th: We will start the week mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning colder for the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up late in the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with our next storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday through Tuesday.  A second system works in on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with precip chances Wednesday through Friday. We will stay cool into the weekend.  I am going to say with this second system we should stay rain, but flurries aren’t out of the question.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!