Thursday night blog: More storms, eclipse and long range forecast

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Good Thursday night!  I hope the week has been fantastic.  I am sitting here getting stuff done at work and stepped outside for a few minutes.  It feels awesome outside.  It is to bad the heat and humidity will kick right back in tomorrow.  Plus, chances for showers and thunderstorms as well.

NEXT SYSTEM

Thunderstorm chances will creep back in Friday afternoon and evening.  Now this won’t be nearly as heavy and widespread as what we had on Wednesday.  It will be very scattered and some areas will stay dry.  Here is a look at Friday night with scattered thunderstorms.

Saturday looks great!  However, chances for thunderstorms will roll back in on Sunday and Monday.  Remember, Monday is eclipse day.  Lets look at our forecast here.

Around here, I do think we are going to be partly sunny and there is a slight chance for a pop-up storms.  Lets keep our fingers crossed.  Now if you are heading toward KC, the chances for rain are a little higher all the way into central MO.

Right now, could change but as of right now I think the best place is just south of St. Louis for viewing purposes.

HEADY PATTERN

The old pattern is now in the morphing stage into the new pattern.  Now, the new cycle length is currently in place.  I have a pretty good idea what it is, but need to continue to watch it.  This year is an easier process for me as I have a modeling system for the pattern change.  The old 57.5 day cycle is still present but getting weaker by the day.  I will keep you updated on all of the changes.

LABOR DAY

Labor Day weekend looks nice with highs into the 80s and partly sunny skies.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm through most of the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then another system with rain chances on Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  Another warm week with highs mainly into the 80s.  Showers and thunderstorms possible on Thursday and Friday.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday Night: Storms and a look down the road, long range

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Good Thursday night!  I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but good.  Plus I have a 4-day weekend coming up which I am stoked about of course.

We have this system working through now with showers and thunderstorms and some heavy amounts of rain.  I am not really worried about severe weather but some stronger storms.  Plus what about the pattern and our long range forecast.  Here is the latest on all of that.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Temperatures slowly warming through the week with 90s by the middle of the week.  However, with a front and weak waves working through, we will have isolated storms through the week.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good with partly sunny skies and highs around 85.  A hotter week with mainly 90s rolling in with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  We will have chances for showers and thunderstorms during the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures heading into the holiday weekend.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Latest updated blog: Why is August cooler?

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Good Tuesday evening!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good, I had a 4 day weekend and hit the lake a bit and did stuff around the house.  I work three days this week and then back out for the weekend to go see a buddy in Charlotte.  However, the weather has been fantastic.  I thought tonight it would be easier to just do a video blog then try to explain why August as been cooler.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  I think temperatures look great with 80s most of the week.  However, we are still going to have these weak waves rolling through.  That means chances for on and off showers and thunderstorms continue from Sunday through Wednesday.  We could see a few more showers on Friday.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good with partly sunny skies and highs around 90.  A hotter week with mainly 90s rolling in with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  We will have chances for showers and thunderstorms during the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures heading into the holiday weekend.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday Night Blog: Nice temps and a look at Eclipse Day. Plus your month long

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Good Tuesday evening!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  The weather has been fantastic and it should stay that way for at least the next week.  We have had very weak waves rolling through and a little stronger (but still weak) wave will roll through on Thursday.  Now remember, we are still sitting in the 57 day cycle, but the cycle has started to shift and the new cycle is already here.  It has just recently started and now my job is to find it which I am currently working on.  I can use the old 57 day cycle for about another 6 weeks as it fades out, but I will easily find the new one here in the next two weeks.  So lets look at Thursday’s system

Look at this same weak system back on June 7th

This will give us some scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and very comfy temps toward the weekend.  We may not make it out of the 70s for highs on Friday.  Lets jump ahead to August 21st.  Here is what eclipse day is looking like as of now.

Check out my long range forecast below.  On my next blog I will update it into October for you.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Great temperatures again with mainly 80s through the week.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Rain chances roll back in on Wednesday and Thursday with our next system.

August 13th-19th:  A warm start to the week with highs into the with 80s for highs, but 90s return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good right now with partly sunny and skies and a high around 85.  Hot late in the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with the heating kicking in by mid week.  Cooling down a bit for the holiday weekend with some rain chances.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday Night Blog: Thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, plus your long range forecast

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Good Wednesday night!  I hope you have all enjoyed the heat!  Ha Ha, not really.  We have officially hit 100 degree three times this summer and we have had the humidity.  So we can definitely say it hasn’t been extremely pleasant.  We do have changes coming over the next few days.

Scattered thunderstorms for us tonight and into the morning hours.  We aren’t looking at anything severe, so that is good.

We will break out and see partly sunny skies and heat up into the lower 90s.  Additional thunderstorms during the afternoon as our cold front shifts through the area.

Behind this front much nicer temperatures work in for the weekend with highs into the mid to upper 80s.  Take a look at the weekend.

You can see the Jet Stream in purple to the north where it should be with a very weak wave in northern KS.  Remember we are on a 57 day cycle with this years pattern.  So lets go back 57 days.

On June 3rd we had the exact same pattern which we should.  Also you can see that same weak wave in northern KS.  Now the cycle is currently in the switching phase for the new pattern that will be in place in early October.  However, the cycle will be set here in about a week or so if it already isn’t going.  I have a model that I use to find this new cycle and looking forward to see what happens.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Pretty nice temps all week as we hang out near 90 degrees.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday

August 6th-12th:  Heating right back up with 90s if not 100s.  Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Cooling down a bit for the weekend.

August 13th-19th:  A warm start to the week with dry conditions.  Heating up for the second half of the week with 90s to near 100 with thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday

August 20th-26th:  A warm first half of the week with a hot finish.  Rain chances Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with the heating kicking in by mid week.  Cooling down a bit for the holiday weekend with some rain chances.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Monday Night Blog: The heat!!!! Plus your long range forecast.

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Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend and stayed cool.  At least temperatures were a little cooler last Friday and Saturday.  However, the heat has kicked right back in!  It isn’t going anywhere for the next several days.  This is what we are going to see so much of the rest of the summer.  These big ridges with extended heat spells.  We usually have 1 of 3 summers around here.  Either a mild summer, hot with high humidity, or hot with little humidity.  This summer is a hot and humid summer.  It is very hard to climb above 100 when we have humid summers.  On hot and less humid summers, we see out temps climb above 100.  With the less humidity, it actually seems to feel a little better.  Lets see what is going on this week.

The Jet stream is well north and we have this huge area of high pressure over us.  This is what is giving us the heat this week.  Now underneath the ridge we have that tiny little wave in northern KS.  With it, there are a few little showers and thunderstorms north of us.  If we go back one cycle to 57 days ago, we had the same set-up.  The difference was the Jet Stream was stronger in May.

You can see how the Jet was still way north, but the low across the central plains was much stronger.  Due to the summer months, we are going to have to deal with the heat and humidity.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures finally working in by mid week.  With it, we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday night blog: Long range forecast and the heat kicking back in!

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Good Wednesday evening! I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend and a fantastic 4th.  It was to bad we had so many showers on the 4th, but at least it was spotty.  I went to the lake for several days with friends and family.  It was a great time, but the boat is giving me a few fits.  BOAT=Bring On Another Thousand.  I am hitting the lake again tonight, so I will be out of the office for the next week.  I will be checking in, so you can’t get rid of me completely.

All of the showers have been dying off and we will dry out over the next few days.  Also temperatures will really heat up with the humidity for the rest of the week.  We will see a cold front slide in late Friday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

With this front, we will cool down a bit on Saturday as the front slips just south of the region.  However, it will be short lived as the front turns back around and heads back north on Sunday.  Then the heat really starts to kick in next week.  Temperatures will climb through the 90s with heat indices well above 100 degrees.  This is all due to a big ridge of high pressure that will push in.  Take a look at Monday.

You can see the west coast system, the huge heat wave ridge over the central plains, and then the east coast system.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern, or CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis).  Gary Lezak and I are the founders of this pattern.  We have always called this pattern different names due to having some different ideas.  However, we are trying to combine our patterns as a team and looks like we will call it the CPH.  I will keep you updated on that.  Remember, we are on a 57 day cycle.  However, the cycle is now in the process of a morphing into the new cycle for the next year to come.  We will also talk more about that change in the future.  So lets go back one cycle or about 57 days.

On May 14th, you can see the west coast system, ridge in the central US, and east coast system.  Lets go back another 57 days to March 18th.

As you can see, the same set-up once again.  We can continue to go back another cycle to January 23rd.

The jet stream was at top strength in January, but you can still see the exact same set-up.  I find this super cool!   So I know this will repeat once again here in about 57 days.

Long Range Forecast Below

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid with a few isolated pop-up storms.  Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look to be mainly dry.

July 23rd-29th:  A hot start to the week, but cooling back down into the 80s through most of the week.  We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front sinks in and stalls over us from Monday through Thursday.  The heat and humidity will return for the weekend.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Monday Night Blog: More thunderstorms and our long range forecast

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Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend.  I have been out of the office for over a week at a weather conference in Kansas City.  It was a great conference and enjoyed it greatly.

Our weather has been great over the past few days.  Now we are having some scattered thunderstorms that have been working through and these will continue through the overnight hours.  Let me show you what we will see later this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will drop through this evening and tonight.  Some of these could be strong with a possible severe thunderstorm with the main threat being hail and wind.  Now, most of these will just stay on the strong side but I will watch it.

We will really heat up over the next few days.  The Jet Steam is well north as we will be under a ridge of high pressure.

Now, by the weekend we will see a storm system rotating across the northern plains.  This will drop a cold front in with chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Take a look at this system.

Now remember, we are and have been a 57 day cycle since last July.  So lets go back one cycle to May 3rd and you can see this same storm system rolling through.

This system will drop a front near the area giving us scattered thunderstorm through the holiday weekend.  Some of the storms could even be strong to severe.  Here is midday Sunday.  I am just pulling one day so you can see the scattered thunderstorms across the region.

So of course I will keep my eyes on the holiday weekend forecast over the next few days.

What is to come?  Well it looks like we will stay in a weak El Nino through the fall and into the winter months.  That means the new cycle length will most likely fall in the 50-55 day range.  The new cycle will begin its morphing stage from the old into the new here over the next month or so.  During the morphing process we will also morph from the old pattern and into the new pattern from August until it is completely set by the beginning of October.  I have over the past few years developed a process to be able to tell when and see these changes take place.  I also have a mathematic process on this to help me see the new pattern take place.  We will discuss this in greater details over the next couple of months.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Temperatures heat up for the second half of the week and mainly dry.

July 16th-22nd:  Main a hot week with high in the 90s to near 100 degrees.  We will have afternoon pop-up thunderstorms on Monday through Friday.

July 23rd-29th:  A hot start to the week with highs near 100.  However, cooling into the 80s for the second half of the week.  A few scattered thunderstorms from Monday through Thursday.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday Afternoon Blog: Long range forecast and pattern update

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Good Tuesday afternoon.  I hope your week is going great so far.  I am off all week but still working at a conference in Kansas City.  However, I did want to update you on what to expect the next few days and of course your long range forecast.

The heat and the humidity are returning, but at the same time, we are also seeing chances for scattered thunderstorms a little later this week.  This is all due to an upper level wave and a tropical wave that are pushing through.  This is very interesting.  It fits the pattern perfectly and right on time with the 57 day cycle we have been in.  Take a look at Thursday.

You can see the wave working through the northern plains.  However, at the same time you can see the tropical system across eastern Texas.  Look at how this all fits together.  Lets go back 57 days, which is one cycle.

Lets go two cycles back to March 1st.

I hope you are used to the heat and humidity, we will see a lot of it this summer.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  A warm start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.  The heat and humidity pump in for the 4th of July weekend holiday.July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot and humid through the first half of the week.  It will turn a little cooler Thursday and Friday with a system working through with a few scattered thunderstorms.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Summer looks hot and dry!

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Good Wednesday evening!  I hope you are having a fantastic week so far.  Mine has been busy as usually but actually a pretty good week.  I can believe we are over half way through the first week of June.  Boy does time fly.

I wanted to give you an update on the what the next several weeks look like.  Here is a video I did today, plus my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Hot most of the week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorms will start to increase Wednesday through Saturday.

June 18th-24th:  A cooler but warm week across the region.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then they will return for Thursday and Friday.

June 25th-July 1st:  A hot start to the week with the second half of the week warm with highs into the 80s.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday

July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot most of the week with a brief cool down on Thursday and Friday.  A chance for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS