Good Tuesday afternoon.  I hope everyone is having a great days so far.  Mine has been busy as always.  I am going to get ready and shoot into work here shortly.  However, I want to go over our severe weather threat for this evening.

The main threat is very large hail, gusty winds and a lower tornado threat.

Hail:  High threat

Wind:  Elevated threat

Tornado:  Low threat

Temperatures have been hanging around 60 degrees most of the day.  However, a warm front is surging north and that will pop our temperatures up this afternoon.  That warm front will be right on top of us during the evening hours.  This put us at the triple point of this wave.  That means where the warm front/cold front/low pressure all meet.  That atmosphere is decently stable right now, but will become unstable through the afternoon hours as the front surges north.  The greatest threat for severe weather is from Fredonia-Parsons-Pittsburg-Lamar-Lockwood and points south.  This system is right on track with my pattern.  We are in the 5th cycle of this current pattern.  We are sitting on a cycle of 57.5 days.  That means our weather systems match from 57 days ago and 57 days ahead down the road.  So lets look at what we should see through the evening hours.

Lets step through the radar.  Here is a look at 5pm.

You can see the storms getting going across NE OK and SE KS.  Now the tornado threat is low, but if we see a couple tornadoes it will occur between 5-7pm with the greatest area threat being NE OK and extreme SE KS.  Lets move to 7pm.

At this time we are looking at mainly a wind and hail threat as the storms push into SW MO and NW AR.

By 10pm, the storms are long gone and the colder air will filter in for Wednesday with on and off showers.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

April 9th-15th: Showers and thunderstorms working back in late Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be on the strong side.  We will see another system working in on Wednesday and Thursday with chances for thunderstorms.  Thunderstorm chances will return for the weekend.

April 16th-22nd: Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday. Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms. Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th: A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through. Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS