Archive: Sep 2015

Friday AM Blog: October should be an active month

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I hope everyone has had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  Work has been pretty good, but I have to admit the weather has been boring here in the Joplin area.  Of course I love nice weather so I can get outside and enjoy it, but I do like something to talk about when I am doing the weather at work.  All week long we have been dealing with mid and upper level clouds with a few sprinkles, oh joy! At least I have been able to get outside and get a stuff done over the past few days.  As of right now, just inside doing a little work.  At least my Jack the German Shepherd is getting some sleep, lol

Jack

 

Even though the new pattern has set, you have to remember the Jet Stream is still very weak and typically stays pretty far north this time of the year.  We just haven’t seen much action across the lower 48 over the past week or so.  Or shall I say we haven’t seen big storm system working through.  This will change over the next few weeks.  First off lets see what we are looking at.

The new 2015-2016 Heady Pattern is completely set.  Due to the my theories the Heady Pattern sets up each year right around September 20th.  This pattern will last until next August and then slowly morph into the next pattern for about a month.  Remember, the pattern is how storm systems will react over the next year.  Now the cycle is how often storm systems will repeat.  The cycle sets up depending on the the year anywhere from May through July.  This years cycle completely set up in early July.  This means we are ready roll, we have our new pattern and cycle.  Plus on top of this we have a very strong El Nino that will influence this years Heady Pattern.  Lets take a look at it.

El Nino

I usually look at the 3.4 index.  This is the second box down.  When you get an El Nino at 2.25 or greater, we are talking about one heck of an El Nino.  You can see we had a weak El Nino even last fall, winter, spring as well.  However, it really got ramped up over the summer months.  Starting next week the Jet Stream will start to see a few storm systems that will dip farther south into the central plains and then pull out into the eastern third of the country.  However, the models are still having a little hard time picking up on the details of this, they are models.  Here is a look at mid next week.

Next Wednesday

I think the actual jet will dig into the central plains.  However, it is the following week, the second week of October we start to see a series of storm systems digging in.  Now the models have zero clue what is going on.

October 7th

Here is a look at a model projection for October 7th.  I think is way underplaying the Jet Stream and the position.  I expect storm systems to really start digging into the central plains with plenty of rain chances through the middle of the month.  Plus I expect pretty big temperature swings and this will become the active stretch of the Heady Pattern that has a cycle length this year a little longer than this past years.

I as I continue to build this blog I will put detailed long range forecast up for wider locations with video blogs as well.  That will be coming very soon.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

 

Next Friday:  Mild with slight chances for rain.

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

I will go out 2 more weeks on my next blog!!!!!

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Monday Blog September 21st: The Heady Pattern is set! The cycle is set!

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I hope you had a great weekend!  I had a great weekend.  My better half (Stacey) and my Son (Christian) and I did a ton around the the house on Saturday.  Yesterday we went to an air show at the airport here in Joplin.  I was completely impressed with old planes and all of the tricks they were doing.  Stacey enjoyed the long lines for the her frozen lemonades and of course Christian had to spend time in the bouncy house.  The weather here in Joplin was great all weekend long.  We had temperatures in the 70s through the weekend which is a little bit below normal for this time of the year.  We actually had pretty good showers and thunderstorms with a cold front on Friday evening that cooled us down for the weekend. Things look pretty calm for the next several days.  We are in what I call the boring part of the Heady Pattern.  Now later in the winter this could be an active stretch, but right now this is a boring stretch.

The new 2015-2016 Heady Pattern is completely set.  Due to the my theories the Heady Pattern sets up each year right around September 20th.  This pattern will last until next August and then slowly morph into the next pattern for about a month.  Remember, the pattern is how storm systems will react over the next year.  Now the cycle is how often storm systems will repeat.  The cycle sets up depending on the the year anywhere from May through July.  This years cycle completely set up in early July.  This means we are ready roll, we have our new pattern and cycle.  Plus on top of this we have a very strong El Nino that will influence this years Heady Pattern.  Lets take a look at it.

El Nino

I usually look at the 3.4 index.  This is the second box down.  When you get an El Nino at 2.25 or greater, we are talking about one heck of an El Nino.  You can see we had a weak El Nino even last fall, winter, spring as well.  However, it really got ramped up over the summer months.  I am sure you have seen many forecasts already for the fall, winter and spring across the nation for the El Nino winter.  These forecasts are based of historical El Nino events and they terrible!!!!!!!!!!!  Most climo forecasters assume with El Nino that the lower 48 will be warmer that normal and wetter than normal in spots.  Here is a look at what most forecasters expect with El Nino.

precip

temps

However, this ISN’T the case.  It all has to do with the Heady pattern.  What ever the pattern is will tell us who will be warmer, colder, wetter and dryer.  Now, El Nino does influence how the pattern sets up some, but just because we are in El Nino, it doesn’t mean this is what we are going to see.  Here in the midwest I have seen very warm and dry winters and very cold and wet winters with El Nino.

Now that the new Heady Pattern is completely set, I can really study it and get a good grasp on what we will see across the nation.  I already see an active stretch in the pattern.  This active stretch in the pattern will affect the midwest in the 2nd, 3rd and part of the 4th week of October.  However, for today lets focus on what we will see for the next couple of weeks.  Remember, I said we are in the boring part of the pattern.  Now, this could be a more exciting time down the road as the Jet Stream gets a little stronger toward the winter months.  Here is an upper level map that shows storm system energy and the jet stream at roughly 18,000 feet.

August 4th

This is back on Aug 4th.  This is the part of the pattern that we will be in for about the next week and a half.  Our cycle this year is a bit longer than last years 47 day cycle.  Now the map above shows the old pattern but the new cycle.  Because the Jet Stream hasn’t gotten to much stronger we will continue to see ridging across the southern US keeping temperatures warm with most of the storm systems across the Great Lakes and the Pacific NW as they rotate into the northern Plains.  Their are some hints of some tropical moisture working into the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that.  This pattern will really pick up the 2nd week of October with numerous storm systems with much bigger cold snaps.  We will get into this on the next blog.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

September 27th-October 3rd:

A fairly warm start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  We will have waves across western KS that could fire off scattered thunderstorms.  Temperatures a little cooler late in the week with mainly dry conditions.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

 

Wednesday AM September 16th: The pattern is almost set!

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope you are having a great work week.  I am trying to get some work done before I do house stuff and go to work.  Our weather here has been great in Joplin, MO over the past several days.  Our average high for this time of the year is 82 degrees and we should shoot to about 86 this afternoon.  However, the entire country has changes moving in over the next several days.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

Wednesday 500

This a 500mb map is a good chunk up in the atmosphere.  I love looking at these maps because I can see the Jet Stream but I can also see the storm systems energy.  Where you see the X, that is the little waves.  Where you see the yellow, that is the energy flowing in. If we look in the Pacific NW, we can see a storm system digging in with energy whipping out into the northern plains.  This has already been producing rain and much needed rain in the NW and the northern Rockies.  This system will drop a cold front through the midwest on Friday with cooler temperatures and work east over the weekend.

Now the 2014-2015 Heady Pattern is just about dead.  That pattern started around the 20th of September last year and held until about a month ago.  Over the past month it has been morphing into the new pattern that will be completely set here in just a few days.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  I like what I am seeing.  Do you notice how this system is diving hard south into northern California?  This is going to continue to happen as we work through the fall and winter months.  This will create much needed rain for the western 1/3rd of the country.

So lets look at the cycle.  The old cycle was roughly 47 days with last years pattern.  However, that cycle has really been dead for about a month as well.  As the old pattern has been dying you could see small hints of it but it is gone!  So how do I long range forecast?  Well their is always a transition cycle that develops in the summer months but more importantly the new cycle develops.  The new cycle always starts in May, June or July.  This just depends on El Nino or La Nina.  Now if you wait until the fall you can just eyeball it see where the cycle is.  However, if you want to find it in the summer months like I always do then I have found a process you have to go through that you don’t even want me to get into, lol.  However, you can’t just eyeball it you will way off.  But the system I have found works 100% accurate which is great.

So as of right now we still have transition cycle going on plus our new cycle as well.  You can see one of these cycles here back on July 27th which is roughly 52 days ago.

July 27th

Now we are still in the old pattern on July 27th, but you can definitely see a different cycle.  This is showing the same look as above.  Without giving out to much information, lol this is either the transition or the new cycle.

I will keep you completely updated and I will continue to expand this blog for you.  Because I live in Joplin here is the long range forecast for KS, MO, AR and OK.  However, I will give you more information over time.

Doug

Long Range Forecast:

Next Wednesday:  Mild with a few showers.

Next Thursday:  Mild and partly sunny.

Next Friday:  Mild and partly sunny

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

September 27th-October 3rd:

A mild start to the week with a system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  We will cool down and dry out for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

 

 

Tuesday Morning September 15th Blog: Welcome

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This is my first and very quick blog post.  Let me explain why.  It is 12:47am and I get this across my screen.

 

IMPORTANT: From 9/15/2015 01:00 AM to 9/15/2015 06:00 AM (Central Time) we will be performing maintenance on our Internet systems network. For this reason, during this time, your connection to the Internet may be unavailable or slow. Our maintenance program involves regular system updates and improvements that help make your service experience more reliable and deliver the always fast Internet you expect from us. We apologize for any inconvenience this may cause you, and appreciate your patience and understanding while we work to improve your service experience.

 

This isn’t what somebody wants when they are working, lol.

 

I will have to do another blog shortly.

Lets explain the Heady Pattern.  The pattern sets up the 3rd week of September, it is ALMOST SET.  The pattern is how storm system react.  That is the key, how are storm systems going to react for the next year.  The pattern will start to morph into the new pattern next August which will take about 6 weeks.  Now with-in the pattern, each year their is a recurring cycle.  The cycle is the length that storm systems repeat.  The cycle doesn’t set-up the same time the pattern does.  Depending on El Nino or La Nina, the cycle can set up as early as May or as late as July 15th.  Because we are in a strong El Nino this year the new cycle decided to set up around July 10th-15th.  Usually in a strong El Nino we have a little shorter cycle which would fall in the 45-55 day range.  In a strong La Nina it is in the 55-65 day range.  In a neutral year it usually is in the 50-60 day range.  This year should fall in the 50-55 day range.  I am going to go much more in depth with the Heady Pattern and what to expect over the next several weeks.  I will expand this across the nation.  Due to internet out of control I better sign out.

Doug