Archive: Oct 2015

Friday Night October 30th: Pattern continues to pick up!

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Happy Halloween! Well on Saturday, but we are almost there.  I hope the week is going great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad, just a lot of work.  I am sitting here watching the Royals but the Mets are swinging very well so far.  We will see what happens.  My son had his Halloween Party for 1st grade today, sugar high!

Christian

Christian is buff!  He always seems to have a great time.  We have had the rain and will continue to through the middle of Saturday.  During the morning hours we will just see light showers and then mainly just cloudy skies by the afternoon.  Lets look at this system.

Sat. 500

You can see this system working through the central plains.  It is deeper or farther south than the September version that we had.  However, very similar just the trough is shifted a bit due to being in a new pattern.

Sept. 12th

Our next bigger system moves in late next week.  Ahead of it, the entire central plains will see a nice warm-up through the first half of next week.  We will see warm temperatures surging north from the Gulf Coast into the Great Lakes.  Look at this for next Wednesday.

Next Wednesday

Look at the warm air next Wednesday.  Lets look at this system in September.

Sept 16th temps

Actual highs.

Highs Sept 16th

I love finally seeing an active pattern.  I am continuing to work on my winter forecast as I will post it in about 3 weeks.  Check out my long range forecast below.  I will also extend this for additional states here shortly.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  

WEEKEND:  Rain early on Saturday and then clouds with cool temperatures.  Sun returns on Sunday with a warm-up with highs in the 60s north to 70s south.

NEXT WEEK:  Mild to warm temperatures on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Showers and thunderstorms work in late Wednesday into Thursday.  A cooler rain will stick around for Friday.  Dry but cooler temperatures for next Saturday.

November 8th-14th:

Warming up on Sunday and Monday as rain chances increase for Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures stick around through the late week with our next system on Thursday and Friday with rain chances.  Cooling down and dry for the weekend.

November 15th-21st:

Cool with precip chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying cold but mainly dry the rest of the week.

 

 

Monday Evening: Storm systems pushing in

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Good Monday evening!  I hope everyone had a great weekend and the week is starting off pretty good.  I have had a busy past few days with all kinds of stuff going on.  On Friday, I was in Kansas City with my sister as she was having a double mastectomy as she is fighting breast cancer.  The surgery went well and she seems to be doing pretty good.  She is in a lot of pain but she is at home now and slowly recovering.  Now we sit back for a couple weeks and wait for the next step of treatment here in a couple three weeks.  My son and I went to a really cool corn maze over the weekend.  It was about 20 acres of a maze that we went through at night.  We made it out! lol.  I worked a lot on my big pallet table over the weekend.  It is almost done as I just have a few more pallets to put in place on the top of the table.  Then I need to stain it and it will be ready to roll.  I will have to post a picture of it once I finish it.  My Chiefs looked half way decent yesterday and I am super pumped for the Royals to start game one tomorrow night.  I have a lot going on!

The weather has been great the past few days with just about perfect fall temperatures.  The clouds have been thickening up as rain is working in for the Arkansas, NE Oklahoma, SE Kansas and Missouri later tonight.  Remember the Heady Pattern has been completely set now for over a month.  The new cycle has also been completely set since July, but we have also had a transition cycle this year due to not switching out of El Nino this past year.  I won’t go into the boring details of this for you.  I have been watching the transition and the new cycle closely over the past 2 and a half months.  The transition cycle will completely die off here over the next 3-4 weeks as the new cycle continues for the next 9 months or so.  Lets look at what is going on right now.

500 today

3 main features stand out.  The tropical moisture across the gulf states that will help feed our rain over the next 24 hours.  The system across the northern Rocky Mountains that is working east which will also feed into the tropical moisture down south.  Also the massive upper level low spinning across eastern Canada.  We can go back to September 7th, you will see some of these same features setting up.

Sept. 7th

Remember the Jet Stream is much weaker in September and we were still at the end of last years pattern.  But you can still see the system in the northern Rocky Mountains, the tropical low and the weaker version of the eastern Canada low.  Lets go out a couple days and look at Wednesday.

Wed. 500

By midweek you can see the storm system really wraps up across the northern plains as a pretty strong upper level low.  Look at the cold air this system pull south.

Thursday cold

As this part of the pattern repeats SEVERAL times through the late fall and winter months, this will be very cold air across the northern half of the country.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  

Next Tuesday:  Mild and partly sunny.

Next Wednesday:  Warm with rain chances.

Next Thursday:  Mild with rain chances.

Next Friday:  Cool and partly sunny.

Saturday:  Cool with rain chances.

November 8th-14th:

A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday.  Warming up for the middle of the week with rain chances for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Turning cooler Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

November 15th-21st:

Cool with precip chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying cold but mainly dry the rest of the week.

October 22nd Blog: New Pattern is looking interesting!

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Happy Thursday!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine hasn’t been to bad.  I am getting some work done before work and would love to get a few things done outside as well.  I have been slowly working on a pallet outdoor table.  I have it all cut and pieced together the way I want it now, so I just need to build it.  Hopefully I can get a little time in on it before work today.  Plus I need to run a couple errands.  I hate running all over town, it drives me crazy but it has to be done, lol.

Most of us across the central US have been great for the past several days with warm temperatures.  We actually need rain!  Most of us are above normal for rain this year but we haven’t had much over the past 6 weeks or so.  Is this the new pattern?  Yes, this is the new pattern.  However, don’t worry, the Jet Stream is just getting going and the storm systems that haven’t produced the rain will here in the future.  I am actually excited about what the winter months could give us.  I am not saying there are going to be big snows in the area, but I do think we will have an active pattern keeping me on my toes.  Lets look at what is going on right now.

500 today

Finally storm systems are digging farther south!!!!!!!!  You can see the system (yellow area) in western KS.  This is kicking out and lifting into the northern plains.  I do want to say it has a negative tilt (meaning it is leaning back toward the west to far west of us).  The reason I bring this up is because if this continues to happen to far to the west of the central plains all winter long, this means a lot of rain makers.  However, as the Jet gets stronger, I think storms will mature a little farther east.  This is something to watch.  This will produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms today, tonight and tomorrow.  Here is late today.

This evening

Scattered showers will continue through the night.  Here is 7am Friday.

7 AM Friday precip

The heaviest rains will work into central and eastern MO during the day on Friday.  As the main cold front sags south Saturday morning, a few morning showers will be possible.

Saturday AM precip

However, here is the key to this storm system.  When we combine some tropical moisture across Texas, look who will get rain over the next 84 hours.

84 hour accum

2/3rds of the country will pick up rain.  Finally we are seeing storm systems working farther south.  Oh and that tropical moisture in southern Texas, oh yes it is part of the pattern.  Look back around August 30th, it was there as well.  If you look closely you can see a counter clockwise spin in southern Texas.

August 31st

I will go into our next systems and down the road on my next blog.  Long range forecast is below.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  

Next Friday:  Mild with thunderstorm chances across the central plains.  Some could be strong to severe in the southern plains.

Next Saturday:  Cooler with a few showers.  Remember this is Halloween, so lets hope all of the showers are out of here!

 

November 1st-7th:

A cool but dry start to the week.  A wave will work through on Tuesday and Wednesday with some showers that should cool us down evening more.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see snow showers across the northern plains with this system.  Cold temperatures stick around for the rest of the week.  We will start to warm back up over the weekend.

November 8th-14th:

A warm start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week with a few showers on Friday.

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Friday October 16th: First big cold snap! Changes are here

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I hope you have a had a great work week.  I am looking forward to the weekend as I am sure most of you are as well.  I worked last weekend, so I have worked for 7 days and I am ready to get outside and enjoy this great weather.  I think my son and I will go to the Maple Leaf Parade in Carthage and maybe find a corn maze or something.  Plus I told him we would get the tent out and the fire pit going tomorrow night.  So we are going to venture out about 60 yards from the back porch, oh my!

If you ever read my blogs, you know I hate boring weather.  When everyone else loves nice calm weather.  Ok I take that back, when we need rain people do want the rain.  However, most people like the nice calm weather.  I hate it!  I need something to talk about or I go into a deep depression, lol.  This is why I take all of my vacation time during the summer and early fall.  However, the new pattern is set and the Jet Stream is getting stronger.  The new pattern has been set now for almost a month now with the cycle in place for about 3 months.  Remember, we have three cycles to watch during the summer and early fall.  The old cycle, the new cycle and the transition cycle.  The old cycle has been dead for about 6 weeks.  I have just been paying attention to the new cycle and the transition cycle for the past three months.  What is importance of the transition cycle is showing how the new pattern is going to react.  Yes I know complicated huh?  However, everything is right on schedule and has fallen in line the way it should.  Now that the new pattern is about 3-4 weeks old, I am watching to see how it reacts.  Look at the cold temperatures settling in for tonight and the weekend.

Temperatures tonight

We will see storm systems really ramp up here in about 10 days or so.  Next Tuesday and Wednesday is the next weak wave that travels across the north central plains.

Next Tuesday 500

This weak wave is very similar and fits right in line with what we had back on August 28th.

August 28th

Now the difference with August is we were in the old pattern.  However the new cycle and transition cycle was already place so it doesn’t matter as it doesn’t effect the long range forecasting.

You can see the moisture trying to spread north across the central plains.  But we can also look back at August 28th and also look at this wave.

Aug. 28th 500

It was much weaker than but it was still then.  In fact we can go all the way down the road on the models to 384 hours.  They are a couple of days off but take a look.

384 500

It shows a wave rolling into the central plains which is pretty much on time with what did happen on September 7th.

September 7th

So the pattern is rolling and I have a great idea of what is to come.  I will continue to update you.  Look below at my long range forecast.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

Next Friday:  Mild with chances for rain.

Next Saturday:  Mild with a chance for rain.

October 25th-Halloween:

A cool start to the week with rain chances on Sunday.  Temperatures warming up a bit for Monday and Tuesday.  Cool with rain chances for Wednesday.  Then a pretty good warm-up heading into Halloween.  However, we also have chances for showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

November 1st-7th:

A cool to cold start to the week with rain chances on Sunday.  Temperatures remain on the chilly side with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures will moderate a bit for the weekend.

November 8th-14th:

Warming up at the beginning of the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down for the second half of the week with slight rain chances on Friday.

 

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Wednesday AM Blog: The new pattern is really looking interesting!

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I hope you are all doing great!  I am doing pretty well, but I have been very busy over the past couple of weeks.  I haven’t been able to keep up with my blog due to some family issues that have popped up.  I guess it is true when they say it rains it pours.  I don’t think my sister would mind, but I am doing everything I can to support her.  She is my hero right now.  She is 38 years old, a great wife and a mother of two young kids.  My sister has stage 2 breast cancer.  I sit back and think why in the world would that happen.  Over the past couple of weeks I have been doing everything I can to support her with that.  Also last week I lost a close family member, Mike McReynolds was to young at the age of 67.  So it has been an interesting couple of weeks.  So it is time get back at it now and lets hit the weather.

I have been watching the new Heady Pattern closely and a lot has been going on.  Even though the lower 48 hasn’t seen much over the past couple of weeks, except for the Carolina’s, a lot is evolving.  The pattern is getting stronger and showing what it can do for the winter months.  Lets take a look at what is going on now.  Remember, the pattern now is completely set and the cycle is set.  However, there is also what I call a transition cycle that always takes place as well.  The transition cycle doesn’t matter to much as long as you know what the transition cycle is and the real cycle is.  If you know what both are you are in good shape.  Lets look at what happens by this weekend..  This is a map of the atmosphere at about 18,000 feet.  I love these maps because I can see the Jet Stream but I can also see the storm systems.

Saturday 500

Now lets go back in time a bit and see the cycle.

August 24th

Here is August 24th.  Now this is the old pattern but you can still see the same set-up.  This will give the eastern half of the country a cool down for the weekend.  Let go to the first half of the week next week.

Next Wed. 500

This is next Wednesday, which is actually just a weak wave across the central plains.  However, it should grab some gulf moisture and give most of the central plains some pretty good rain chances.

Next Wed. precip

You can see the moisture trying to spread north across the central plains.  But we can also look back at August 28th and also look at this wave.

Aug. 28th 500

It was much weaker than but it was still then.  In fact we can go all the way down the road on the models to 384 hours.  They are a couple of days off but take a look.

384 500

It shows a wave rolling into the central plains which is pretty much on time with what did happen on September 7th.

September 7th

So the pattern is rolling and I have a great idea of what is to come.  I will continue to update you.  Look below at my long range forecast.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

Next Wednesday:  Mild with showers and thunderstorms.

Next Thursday:  Mild with a few showers.

Next Friday:  Mild and partly sunny.

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

October 25th-Halloween:

A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Warming up the second half of the week with rain chances returning Thursday, Friday and Halloween.

November 1st-7th:

A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain.  Turning colder through the middle of the week with a few showers.  Staying fairly cool through the second half of the week.

November 8th-14th:

Warming up through the beginning of the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with a few showers on Friday.

I will go out 2 more weeks on my next blog!!!!!

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Thursday Blog: The Heady Pattern continues to evolve!

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Happy Thursday!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has gone pretty good, busy but good.  I am actually in Kansas City right now doing a some family stuff.  So I have been off work the past couple of days.  I also had to go to my migraine doctor yesterday which is always a thrill.  I have awful daily migraines that I have fought my entire life.  The appointment was fine, but I really wish my doctor would try some new things that would attempt to prevent the migraines more instead of just pain management.  Maybe someday I will actually be pain free!  Heck if I could go a week without a migraine I would be as happy as can be.

The weather is great here in the midwest.  We had a strong cold front slip through a couple days ago and we are seeing great fall-like temperatures with highs in the 60s and lows all the way down into the lower 40s.  This is a nice real taste of fall.  What a way to start the month of October!  These great temperatures will continue over the next few days.  Remember the Heady Pattern is completely set and what we are seeing now is the new pattern.  Now, it is still disorganized as the Jet Stream is still fairly weak this time of the year but we are in the new pattern.  The new cycle has been set for a few months now and continue to push along.  As the new pattern and a stronger Jet Stream work together over the next couple of months, we will see what this baby can do for the entire US through the winter and spring months.  So when I am long range forecasting now, I able to use the new pattern and cycle.  However, seeing exactly what will happen over the next few months is still a little difficult because I am looking at the new cycle with how it reacted with the old pattern.  The good news is I know when storm systems will work in and when we will see cold snaps.  I can tell when our rain and snow chances will be.  As we work through the next 4-6 weeks I will continue to see evolve with the new pattern and get a great idea how the winter looks across the US.  I will post a winter forecast just before Thanksgiving.  So lets see what is going on right now.

sureface

The main Jet Stream is still sitting well north of the region and we have these disorganized waves across the country.  You can see the wave out west, across the western plaines and the system up the eastern coast.  In our neck of the woods, we have NE winds allowing the cooler air to push south into the central plaines giving us the cooler temperatures.  This odd crazy weird little set-up is very similar to what we had during the first 10 days of August.  This big story out east is hurricane Joaquin.

joaquin

This guy is interesting.  Because we have all of these weird waves which are all cut-off from the main flow of the jet, where is he going to go.  The models are all over the place and some want to take him up the eastern seaboard early next week.  Other models would like to drive him out into the Atlantic ocean.  This is a tricky one as I think he will come close to the coast but as I have looked at the latest wind profiles, he may stay just off the coast.  I will continue to watch him and see where he decides he wants to go.  Take a look at the 500mb chart for Sunday.

Sunday 500

You can see the Jet is will north into southern Canada.  However, we have waves in California, in the SE US and then our hurricane off the Atlantic coast.  We need to watch him closely, especially if you have travel plans in that direction.  Here is a look back at August, 11th.  This is the similar mess that we should see with our upper level pattern by this weekend and early next week.

Aug 11th

Here in about a week or so the Jet Stream will start dipping farther south and we will see a series of storm systems across the northern half of the country.  This means we will have more action weather wise.  We will get into this more on the next blog.

Doug

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

Next Friday:  Mild with slight chances for rain.

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

 

October 11th-17th:

A mild start to the week with temperatures warming up on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms each of those days.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the second half of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

October 18th-24th:

Mild with rain chances on Sunday.  Cool and dry through the middle of the week before mild temperatures return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances also return for the weekend.

October 25th-Halloween:

Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Temperatures will warm up through the week and we should be mainly dry.  We will see a bigger system rolling in which as of right I think will hold off until right after Halloween.  Let me look at this closer here in the next couple of days.

I will go out 2 more weeks on my next blog!!!!!

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44