Archive: Nov 2015

Happy Black Friday Blog: Central Plains Mess

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I hope you ended up having a great Thanksgiving!  My family went up to KC yesterday for Thanksgiving and what a drive that was.  We drove up in a blinding rain with temperatures in the 60s.  Once I hit the cold front about half way up, the truck shifted due to a NW wind and you could hear a whistle from the wind the rest of the way.  The temperatures when from the 60s into the 30s in 12 miles.  That was super cool!  We drove back late last night in freezing rain and as we worked farther south we just had a very cold rain with about 35 degree temps, fun.  This massive system, but disorganized is going to be with us for the next few days.  Check it out.

500 Today

You can see the big spin out west, but we have the front and cold polar/arctic air ahead of it.  This is the same system that we saw in the Heady Pattern back around October 6th.  This is still going to cause a cold rain and freezing rain today across the central plains.  Icy troubles from SE KS, central KS, NE KS, KC metro and stretching south into central OK.  Here is a map for this evening.

Tonight

In the pink, another batch of freezing rain is work north.  My viewing area will mainly be rain for this storm system except Yates Center, Chanute, Iola, Neodesha and Fredonia.  You guys and gals will deal with some freezing rain.  This system will stick around, but the rain will decrease some on Saturday.

Saturday

By this time we have just showers sticking around.  However, on Sunday the main system will push through.  This will produce a band of snow across Nebraska and Iowa.

Sunday

Finally early next week we will all start to dry out just a bit.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of this week:  Showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and into Thursday.  We need to watch for freezing rain and sleep on late Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  The best chances will be in NE KS, central KS, western KS, SE KS, northern OK and the panhandles of OK and TX.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with partly sunny skies.  Slight chances for rain will return Wednesday through Friday with colder temperatures for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Cold temperatures with chances for snow on Monday.  Warmer temperatures slowly work in through the week with rain chances returning by the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Turning colder with rain, ice and snow chances with two systems working through Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay cool through the rest of the week with another system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

December 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week but mainly on the dry side.  Cold with snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This system should be out for Christmas Eve with temperatures slowly warming up for Christmas.  We will see if our chances go up or not but right now I will say a 30% chance for a white Christmas in Joplin.

Wednesday AM November 25th: Another big system

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I hope your week is going great!  Hopefully you have a short week.  I actually have a short week.  I think this is the first time in 13 years at my current job that I actually have Thanksgiving off.  I usually have Christmas off but never both, I will take it!  However, I am going to be watching the weather like always because I am a complete weather nerd/geek whatever you want to call me.  When we have a system rolling through the central plains I can’t get away from it.  My son (Christian), Stacey (better half) and I are going to head back north to my home town and spend a little time with my sister.  She has been struggling as she is going though intense chemo for breast cancer, but hopefully she is feeling better on Thursday.

However, there is a pretty big system rolling through.  Interesting enough, it is very disorganized which I will show you here in a moment.  Lets jump into Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving evening

Look at the amount of rain across the central plains.  I think on average, areas will pick up 1-2″ of rain.  Also at this same time, watch the cold front plowing SE.

Temperatures Thanksgiving evening

This is one strong front.  It will stay all rain from KC, Joplin, Tulsa, Oklahoma City.  However, farther west from central KS, NB and down through the panhandles of OK and TX will be Freezing rain and sleet.  If you are traveling in that area you need to be very careful as the roads will freeze up very quickly. That line will continue to march east on Friday.

Temperatures Friday evening

Look at the freezing line on Friday evening.  Oh my, it has marched through KC and almost to Joplin.  This means what ever is falling near and west of that line is frozen.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see that line farther east, most models under cut the polar and arctic air.  So lets look at the precip.

Precip Friday evening

You can see plenty of moisture is around.  So we have some pretty good icy conditions now across SE KS, central KS, north central OK, western OK.  We need to watch this closely.  Even on Saturday, this will continue.

Saturday AM Precip

The green is rain, but the pin is freezing rain. This is Saturday morning and it is pushing east.  The question is how far?  That is something we need to watch closely over the next few days.  So lets look and see where this is in the Heady Pattern. Lets go back to Friday.

500 Friday

Do you see what I mean by disorganized?  We have a low across the Great Lakes and SW US.  However, this did happen before, about 52-53 days ago, lets go back to October 6th.

October 6th

I probably should have grabbed October 7th to get an exact match but you get the idea.  The same split, we are right on track and it will happen again.  The split probably won’t happen next time due to the stronger jet but this system will come around again right on track.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of this week:  Showers and thunderstorms late Wednesday and into Thursday.  We need to watch for freezing rain and sleep on late Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  The best chances will be in NE KS, central KS, western KS, SE KS, northern OK and the panhandles of OK and TX.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with partly sunny skies.  Slight chances for rain will return Wednesday through Friday with colder temperatures for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Cold temperatures with chances for snow on Monday.  Warmer temperatures slowly work in through the week with rain chances returning by the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Turning colder with rain, ice and snow chances with two systems working through Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay cool through the rest of the week with another system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

December 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week but mainly on the dry side.  Cold with snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This system should be out for Christmas Eve with temperatures slowly warming up for Christmas.  We will see if our chances go up or not but right now I will say a 30% chance for a white Christmas in Joplin.

Nov. 24th Blog: My Winter Forecast!

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  We have another big storm system moving this week just in time for the holiday travel and the holiday weekend.  However, I will have to get  into that on the next blog because this is WINTER FORECAST BLOG!  All right boys and girls, lets break this baby down.

This is all based off the Heady Pattern that I found back in 1999 and have been working on since that point in time.  A pattern sets up each and every year around September 20th and last until the following September and then has a short morphing into the new pattern.  Now, in the pattern their is a recurring cycle, this cycle is how I long range forecast.  The cycle can develop as early as May and as late as August.  This years cycle developed around August 1st, which was a little late due to going from El Nino to El Nino.  We have record breaking El Nino this fall and it does influence the pattern but it doesn’t mean that we will have a certain type of weather.  It is all up to the pattern!!!!!!!!!!!  So lets take a look.  Here is the winter snow average in Joplin.

winter forecast 5

I have averaged out the snowfall since I have been here in the 02-03 winter and it comes to 19.8″  This is still skewed a little, in 2007-2008, we didn’t have much snow, we had all ice.  We have two main storm tracks.  The first one I like to call the active track.

winter forecast 4

This track is going to produce very wet big storm systems across the central plains.  Also the west coast get drought relief finally.  However, the big question for us is will it be rain, ice or snow?  I think a lot of  these systems will be rain like we will see this week on Thanksgiving.  However, I do think we will see a few system work through that have the cold air to produce some big snows.  Here is track number 2.

winter forecast 3

This is a NW flow with fast moving strong systems.  These will mainly affect the northern plains but could give us a snow or two, but smaller ones.  However, they will give us cold arctic blasts.  I do think on average we and the US will end up above average.

winter forecast 2

Here is the precip map.

winter forecast 1

So I do think we will be above average.  So lets break this down.

winter forecast

I am hoping for a bigger snow than what we have had recently.  What about you?

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Weekend:  Much colder temperatures working in behind this system.  Sunshine will work in by Saturday afternoon with high temps in the 30s across the area.  We should make it into the low to mid 40s in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  On Sunday, temperatures should warm back into the mid 40s.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances work back in by Wednesday and Thursday.  We need to watch how fast the colder air rushes in for Black Friday as some precip could linger around.  This will be interesting as it should be mainly along and south of the I-44 corridor.  So this would be Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri could all see some wintry weather.  Dry and cold for Saturday.

November 29th-December 5th:  A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Tuesday.  Rain chances return on Thursday and Friday as temperatures warm up just a bit.  However, turning much cooler again for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Cold temperatures with chances for snow on Monday.  Warmer temperatures slowly work in through the week with rain chances returning by the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Turning colder with rain, ice and snow chances with two systems working through Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay cool through the rest of the week with another system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

December 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week but mainly on the dry side.  Cold with snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This system should be out for Christmas Eve with temperatures slowly warming up for Christmas.  We will see if our chances go up or not but right now I will say a 30% chance for a white Christmas in Joplin.

Friday night/Saturday AM November 20th: The systems keep coming. Plus the Heady Pattern will stay active

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Good Friday night!  I hope you had a great work week and ready for the weekend.  I am always ready for the weekends.  What to do what to do, there are so many things I want to get done this weekend.  I would like to finish a few wood working projects that I have been working on and actually start a few new ones, lol.  I need to do some work and clean the good old house.  Plus it is going to be cold, so who wants to be outside.

Well this has been an interesting storm system rolling through tonight.  In fact all of these lately have been.  Remember, the cycle we are in is roughly 52-53 days and they will all repeat during winter and spring.  Oh my will spring be ACTIVE!  Lets look at this one tonight.

Saturday AM 500

This is a fast moving but strong little guy.  He has dumped a ton of snow across the northern plains and will continue to through the overnight hours tonight.

precip tonight

This is a map of precipitation accumulations tonight and tomorrow.  Eastern Iowa and over to Chicago is next to see 7-12″ of snow.  Here is the Joplin area we are mainly having showers, but we should have a few bands of snow behind the front tonight between 2-6am.  Hey I am super pumped about that, lol.  The cold air will be in place across the entire central plains for the weekend with temperatures well below normal.  We will warm back up next week ahead of our next storm system.  Showers and thunderstorms increase Wednesday and Thursday.  Lets look at Thanksgiving.

Thursday 500

Remember the cycle started back around August 1st, so lets go back about 53 days to October 4th.

October 4th

You can see this same system but a weaker version in October.  The Jet Stream wasn’t as strong a month ago as it is now.  In fact it will get strong over the next couple of months.  This system will give the central plains showers and thunderstorms on Thanksgiving.

Rain Thursday

I did put the front on the map and a red circle.  The red circle is the area we need to watch for the colder air rushing in to see if some possibly wants to change over to a wintry mix or snow.  This is the same case on Black Friday.

Black Friday

In the circle could be wintry weather and needs to be watched closely over the next week.  Of course I will keep you updated.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Weekend:  Much colder temperatures working in behind this system.  Sunshine will work in by Saturday afternoon with high temps in the 30s across the area.  We should make it into the low to mid 40s in Oklahoma and Arkansas.  On Sunday, temperatures should warm back into the mid 40s.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances work back in by Wednesday and Thursday.  We need to watch how fast the colder air rushes in for Black Friday as some precip could linger around.  This will be interesting as it should be mainly along and south of the I-44 corridor.  So this would be Oklahoma, Arkansas and southern Missouri could all see some wintry weather.  Dry and cold for Saturday.

November 29th-December 5th:  A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Tuesday.  Rain chances return on Thursday and Friday as temperatures warm up just a bit.  However, turning much cooler again for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Cold temperatures with chances for snow on Monday.  Warmer temperatures slowly work in through the week with rain chances returning by the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Turning colder with rain, ice and snow chances with two systems working through Sunday through Wednesday.  Stay cool through the rest of the week with another system on Friday and Saturday with rain and snow chances.

December 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week but mainly on the dry side.  Cold with snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This system should be out for Christmas Eve with temperatures slowly warming up for Christmas.  We will see if our chances go up or not but right now I will say a 30% chance for a white Christmas in Joplin.

 

Thursday November 19th: The storm systems keep coming!

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I hope you are having a great week and Thursday.  My week has gone pretty good so far.  I am just getting stuff done around the house before I head into work today.  I do want to give a shout out to my sister today who is going through treatment number 1 of Chemo for breast cancer today.  She has already had her surgery but has a year of chemo and I know she is pretty scared about it.

Our weather has been pretty calm the past couple of days behind all of the rain we had early in the week.  We do  have another system working in on Friday.  The pattern is staying very active and it will stay active through the winter and spring.  We have had 2 severe weather events over the past week in the Joplin area.  These will come around again and this will most likely mean a pretty active spring for us.  However, we need to get through winter first.  I will have my winter forecast and posted on here on Monday.  I have it all together in my head, I just need to put it all down, lol.  Lets go ahead and look at the next system and see where we are in the Heady Pattern.

Friday 500

Here is Friday’s wave.  I put the low on it for you that you can see digging across Nebraska.  Remember, we are in the third cycle of this new cycle.  It started around August 1st, which is pretty late just due to the switch from El Nino to El Nino or shall I say lack of a switch.  Remember the actual pattern began around September 20th.  So lets go back to September 28th.   You can see this same system, but shifted much farther north.  The key here is that it is right on schedule and the right placement.

Sept 28th

This system will actually be a snow maker across Nebraska, Iowa and through the Great Lake states.  Farther south, just expect a few showers.

Friday night precip

I put a red line where the rain/snow line should be.  This system will also bring much colder temperatures south.  Overnight lows will be in the teens across a good chunk of the plain states.  Here is Saturday night.

Sunday AM

If we jump ahead, we have a big travel week next week.  Plus another pretty big system working into the central plains.  I am just going to glance over this for right now.  I am going to post the upper level map for Thanksgiving and the last time it rolled through on October 5th.  Also I will post the rain that it could produce.

Next Thursday 500

October 5th

Next Thursday Precip

So you can see once again this system fits right in line.  We do need to watch how fast the cold air rushes in behind this system, we can’t rule out some wintry weather on Friday or Saturday.

Doug

Long Range Forecast is based off the Heady Pattern.  This is for the central plains and I will expand it over time.  If you are wanting something specific let me know.

Rest of this week:  Chilly temperatures with showers developing Friday evening across KS and MO.  Snow which could be heavy at times in Nebraska and Iowa.  As the colder air rushes south we could see a rain snow mix in MO late Friday night but not looking for accumulations.  Much colder temperatures work in for the weekend.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances work back in by Wednesday and Thursday.  We need to watch how fast the colder air rushes in for Black Friday as some precip could linger around.

November 29th-December 5th:  A chilly start to the week with slight chances for precip early in the week.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  Much cooler temperatures work in again for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Expect a cold start to the week with a weak wave around Monday the 7th with slight chances for rain or snow.  Cold temperatures stick around into the middle of the week before mild temperatures return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances return for the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Mild with rain chances through the middle of the week.  As cooler air works in by the middle of the week, we could see some wintry weather by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold temperatures the rest of the week with another wave on Friday and Saturday.  This wave will give us chances for rain and snow.

Tuesday AM November 17th: Power House System working through. Second one in a week, and it will repeat

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Good early Tuesday morning!  I hope you are having a great start to your week.  Mine has been pretty good, but on the busy side.  I had a great weekend and a pretty good Monday.  I am up late as I am watching all of the thunderstorms that are working through the area.  The Joplin metro, 4-states and central plains will deal with this system for the next couple of days.  Look at this power house system.

Today 500

In a sense this is a cut-off low.  This is cut-off from the main flow of the jet that is in southern Canada.  That is where the main jet is now and was last time it rolled through on September 25th.  Take a look at this.

Sept 25th

You can see how the main Jet Stream was in southern Canada like it is now.  However, look at the little wave in KS, oh my it is there now as our major storm system.  This just flat out amazes me, lol.  This will come back through again in about 52-53 days as a major storm once again.  Look at the rains it will drop Tuesday and Wednesday.

Rain totals

Several inches will fall from Texas up into Illinois.  A second wave will drop in on Friday with some rain and possible snow across Iowa and Illinois.  This will bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.  Here is a look at Friday.

500 Friday

You can see the wave dropping into the Dakota’s, Nebraska and Iowa.  Of course this is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern, this is exactly what happened on September 28th.  This will bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.  Take a look at temperatures below freezing for overnight lows over the weekend.

Weekend temps

We might as well jump ahead into Thanksgiving.

500 Thanksgiving

So how does this fit into the pattern?  Well as of right now we will have a storm system west of us that should give us some chances for rain with cool temperatures.  The farther south you work the warmer it will be across the plain states.  Well if you count out days in the cycle this should fit around October 4th.

October 4th

Hmm, that looks pretty close to me.  Early October was a mess with all of these little cut-off lows.  I think it should be a little more organized this time around with a strong Jet Stream.  I will post my winter forecast next Monday the 23rd!!!!!

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST IS BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN

Right now this forecast is for Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma and Arkansas.  Over the next few months I will expand much more.  Please let me know what you would like to see on my site.  dheady@koamtv.com or you can facebook me at meteorologist Doug Heady.

Rest of this week:  Cooler and windy after this storm system works out for late Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Highs will be in the 40s north to 50s south.  As the next cold front works in expect a rain snow mix across Iowa on Friday.  The rest of us could see a few showers late Friday as the cold front drops through.  This means much cooler temperatures for the weekend.  We are looking at highs in the 30s north to lower 40s south.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Slight chances for rain will return Wednesday and Thanksgiving.  Better chances for rain on Black Friday and into the holiday weekend with cooler temperatures working in.

November 29th-December 5th:  A chilly start to the week with slight chances for precip early in the week.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  Much cooler temperatures work in again for the weekend.

December 6th-12th:  Expect a cold start to the week with a weak wave around Monday the 7th with slight chances for rain or snow.  Cold temperatures stick around into the middle of the week before mild temperatures return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances return for the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Mild with rain chances through the middle of the week.  As cooler air works in by the middle of the week, we could see some wintry weather by Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold temperatures the rest of the week with another wave on Friday and Saturday.  This wave will give us chances for rain and snow.

Friday PM Blog: Interesting Heady Pattern. Continues to get active!

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope everyone is ready for the weekend.  I am always ready for the weekend, but they fly right on by.  I am getting stuff done around the house before work and also some work done.  So I thought I would pound out a blog for you real quick.  Hey the weather here in Joplin today is fantastic!  We have sunny skies and highs around 60 degrees.  You can beat that here in the middle of November.  But the Heady Pattern has been picking up some serious steam over the past couple of weeks.  We have had some strong storm systems working through and I am excited to see what is to come.  First off, El Nino is near record strength.

El Nino

I marked a red mark where I usually look.  That is the 3.4 index and it shows near a record level at about 2.8.  Now remember El Nino influences the Heady Pattern.  El Nino doesn’t cause storm systems to react a certain way, the pattern does, but it does influence it.  So lets look at this weekend.

Saturday 500

It is pretty calm here in the central plains.  We have a low off the two coasts.  The one off the west coast is our next system.  This is right on track with my pattern and where we should be.  Lets go back to late September on the 25th and 26th.  This will show a weaker version due to the Jet Stream being weaker, but the same pattern and cycle.  Remember the new Heady Pattern started around September 20th, and the cycle started late July, so we have already had a few cycles.

September 26th

Here is a weaker version, but the same set-up.  Now lets jump into next Tuesday.  A power house low pushes into the central plains.  This will produce some heavy rains across the central plains.

Tuesday 500

You can see the massive low that develops.  However, lets go back and compare to late September.

September 28th

Here is the weaker version, but it is still there!!!!!!!!!! Amazing that is right there.  Look at the rain that the GFS wants to produce on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday Rain

As of right now the heaviest rains will fall across eastern Texas, LA, AR, eastern OK and southern MO.  In fact lets jump into Thanksgiving week.

Nov 24th

The GFS wants to push COLD air south into the central plain on November 24th.  Does this fit?  In a way it does.  Look at the low in Canada, Great Lake and California.  Now let go to the weaker version on October 6th.

October 6th

We have the two lows in Canada, but farther north due to a weaker Jet Stream and a low in California.  We have a lot of changes coming and I have my winter forecast just about put together.  I will put it out on November 23rd!!!!!!!!!

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN

NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS

THIS WEEKEND:  Cooler with highs into the lower 60s.  Rain sneaks into the forecast on late Sunday.

NEXT WEEK:  Showers and thunderstorms scattered on Monday and Tuesday.  As colder air works in we could see a mix or change over to snow in KS and OK, maybe even MO as colder air works south on Wednesday.  Cooler and dryer for the rest of the week.

NOVEMBER 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances through Tuesday.  Another wave works in with additional rain chances on Friday and Saturday with cooler temperatures.

NOVEMBER 29th- DECEMBER 5th:  Cool with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

DECEMBER 6th-12th:  A cool start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Rain chances with a couple waves from Tuesday through Saturday.  These waves could mix with snow late in the week.

Friday morning Blog Nov. 12th: Heady pattern pick up!

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I hope your work week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I have gotten a decent amount done and trying to get some work finished right now.  If you live in the central plains, you had some wind on Thursday.  Picture a trampoline that was anchored down in 5 spots 3 feet deep with rebarb, now picture this.

tramp

Well I guess this means the next one I cement in the ground.  This is the second one I have lost.  I was sure this one wasn’t going anywhere.  I am highly ticked that this took flight.  I had this anchored at least what I thought pretty well.  Hmm, I guess I will do better next time.  When you get sustained winds at 40-50 mph and gust at 65-70 mph it just couldn’t take it.  Well this system is through and cooler temperatures are here for the next few days.  However, I am already watching our next system.  Lets jump ahead to next Monday.

Monday 500

Look at the system taking a dive across the Rocky mountains.  This is another strong system.  This is something that I have noticed in the new Heady Pattern since it has set-up back around September 20th.  We have had some powerhouse systems that have rolled through.  We may not take a direct hit, but they push through.  We are bound to get a few good ones this winter.  Let go back to September 26th and compare.

Sept. 26th

On September 26th, we had the wave in about the same place but we didn’t have it digging across the southern Rockies.  Because it digs farther south this time, it will spread showers and thunderstorms across the area.

Monday precip

However, watch what happens with this system.  Lets jump to Wednesday.

Wednesday 500

It becomes some what of a cut-off low.  If we can get enough cold air south we could see some snow in the central plains.  Look back in September.  Let go to the 28th.

Sept 28th

Hey look, we had the low across Texas.  Watch how this pulls out by Thursday.

Thursday 500

And of course just like it did in September.

Sept 30th

So this is something I want to watch closely.  I will put out my winter forecast late next week.  I pretty much have it together.  I have been showing you the transition cycle and the new cycle since August, I should have it together.  Look at the long range forecast below.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN

NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS

THIS WEEKEND:  Cooler with highs into the mid to upper 50s.  Rain sneaks into the forecast on Sunday for Oklahoma, Western Arkansas, southern Missouri and southern Kansas

NEXT WEEK:  Showers and thunderstorms scattered on Monday and Tuesday.  As colder air works in we could see a mix or change over to snow in KS and OK, maybe even MO as colder air works south on Wednesday.  Cooler and dryer for the rest of the week.

NOVEMBER 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances through Tuesday.  Another wave works in with additional rain chances on Friday and Saturday with cooler temperatures.

NOVEMBER 29th- DECEMBER 5th:  Cool with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

DECEMBER 6th-12th:  A cool start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Rain chances with a couple waves from Tuesday through Saturday.  These waves could mix with snow late in the week.

 

Wednesday AM Blog Nov 11th: Some severe weather plus changes down the road

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Good Wednesday morning, I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  I have another busy day today with stuff around the house and work of course.  I am sure Stacey will love this, but I need to do the dishes, I had a note saying take care of my dishes, and the counter tops if your up to it.  So I guess I need to do the dishes!!!!!!!!!!!!!

We also have at storm system today across the central plains.  This system has for some odd reason had a lot of hype.  Sure there could be some severe weather, but all the hype of a massive outbreak seems far fetched.  Here is what we are looking at.

Wednesday 500

You can see the strong system across the central plains.  Now next time this shifts through in the Heady Pattern in roughly 50 days this will produce a pretty good snow across the northern plains and probably as far south as I-70.  However, it won’t snow much farther south than that with this system, but something to watch.  Today it will produce showers and thunderstorms with the greatest severe risk eask of Joplin.

severe

Much cooler air will work in for the rest of the week and into the weekend.  Then an mess in the upper levels rolls in for the next week in a half. We will get into that tomorrow.

Doug

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Rest of the week:  Cooler buy nice into the weekend.  Highs in the 50s on Thursday and Friday.  60s return for the weekend.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with thunderstorm chances returning Monday and Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures with showers for Wednesday-Friday.  The cooler temperatures stick around into the weekend.

November 22nd-28th:

A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  We need to watch rain chances on Black Friday.

November 29th-December 5th:

Mild with rain chances to start the week.  As colder air works in we could see a rain/snow mix or switch all over to snow early in the week.  Cold and dry through the middle of the week.  Chilly temperatures and mainly dry to end the week.

Weekend blog, November 7th: I love a more active pattern. I see good things and bad things

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Comments Off on Weekend blog, November 7th: I love a more active pattern. I see good things and bad things

Happy Weekend!  I hope your weekend has started off great!  I have a lot I would love to get done this weekend.  I need to get work done and just stuff around the house.  I posted this on my work blog and I am going to post the same here.

I know my sister back home in KC reads my blogs and I want her to know I am constantly thinking of her.  Gina, only 38 years old but my older sister not by much has been fighting breast cancer.  She had surgery a couple of weeks ago and had to go through a double mastectomy.  She has recovered fairly well from that, but starts Chemo next week.  This is going to be 18 weeks of what they call the red devil.  Then she follows that up with finishing a year out with a lower grade of chemo.  I want her to know that I am thinking of her.

The weather has definitely calmed down around here and will stay calm through the weekend.  The entire central plains has below normal temps and expect it through Monday.  Our next system rolls through on Wednesday.  This system will produce showers and thunderstorms with even being cold enough for a rain/snow mix across the northern plains.

Wednesday

So how does this system fit into the Heady pattern.  Remember we are at least in the 2 cycle if not the 3rd of this new pattern.  I need to go back and look at the exact starting date, but it was around August 1st which is very late.  That is just do to going from El Nino to El Nino.  If we switch from one to another the cycle always starts earlier.  Lets look at September 23rd.

September 23rd

I know this is hard to see, but we had a weak low across the central plains.  You have to remember two things, we had just started the new pattern and the Jet Stream was very weak.  So this low was very weak, but this time around it is much stronger and will continue to be as it rolls through in the future.  Lets go to the next storm systems down the road. Lets just to 216 hours on the GFS model (the long range model).  It is showing a storm system across the central plains which is on Sunday and Monday the 15th & 16th.

216 hours

So lets take a look at this system.

Sept. 28th

Lets go back to September 28th.  You can see the same low across southern Canada.  Doug, why isn’t it across the central plains?  Remember the Jet Stream was much weaker, so it was much farther north.  However, these all fit into the Heady Pattern.

What to expect!!!!

I will put out my winter forecast in two weeks.  El Nino does influence the Heady Pattern, but it is the pattern not El Nino that will tell you what is going to happen.  I get a kick out of all the national stories saying El Nino did this and that, it isn’t El Nino, it is the pattern!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Stay tuned!

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN

THIS IS FOR MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.  I will expand this over the next month to cover the entire central plains and then we will work on the left and right coasts as well.

THIS WEEKEND:  Mostly sunny skies with highs in the mid 50s north to near 60 south.

NEXT WEEK:  Mostly sunny and mild through Tuesday, then showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

November 15th-21st:

Rain chances return on Sunday and Monday with our next storm system.  Colder temperatures work in for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return with rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

November 22nd-28th:

Cool with rain chances on Sunday, then cool and dry through the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return for Thanksgiving, but we need to watch rain chances on Black Friday.

November 29th-December 5th:

Mild with rain chances to start the week.  As colder air works in we could see a rain/snow mix or switch all over to snow early in the week.  Cold and dry through the middle of the week.  Chilly temperatures and mainly dry to end the week.