Archive: Dec 2015

Tuesday Dec. 29th: Cold, weak waves but more to come

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you have tried to avoid all of the flooded waters over the past couple of days.  It is definitely one amazing site to see.  Anyone who is directly effected by the flooding, thoughts and prayers are with you.  Now we have the cold temperatures that will stick around for the next few days, ugh.  Lets go off on a tangent for a second.  I know some Broncos fans around here.  I was really hoping for a Broncos loss last night for 2 reasons.  One, it would give the chiefs full control of the division.  Two, it would have been the 3rd loss in a row by the Broncos.  I am a Manning fan even though I am a die hard Chiefs fan.  I just don’t want to see Manning go out this way, so I wanted a loss to see Manning get back into some games this year.  I don’t want to see one of the best of all time go down like this.  The Chiefs need to win to lock the 5 spot this weekend.  I would much rather go on the road and play Houston then go to the Broncos on the Bengals.

Another cold day for most of the midwest today.  Lets look at where we are in the Heady Pattern.  Here is the upper level map for today.

500 Today

The big system over the weekend is now a weak wave over the Great lakes and we have a second wave digging across Texas.  However, the second wave has very little moisture to work with.  Lets go back to November 11th.

November 11th

You can see this exact same wave digging into Texas.  The first time around it had moisture, but the second time around the first wave stole all of the moisture.  I think most of us are ok with that after this past weekend, lol.  However, you can see we are right on track with the Heady Pattern as we should be!!!!!  This wave will still produce some snow showers tonight across the central plains.

Precip tonight

We will have to see where the band of snow sets up, but accumulations will be light.  It looks like a dusting to 1″ in the heaviest band.  I would say north of I-44 to KC would be in the dusting to 1″ band.  The colder temperatures with calm conditions stick around into the new year.  We will start to see the action once again as we work into next week.

Let me post what happened on November 17th which would be roughly next Tuesday.

November 17th

You can see a cut-off low developed across the Rocky Mountain states and produced a storm system.  However, the main Jet Stream was still well to the north.  Some form this will happen again next week.  The models are having a hard time with this.  I don’t think we will have a strong cut-off low, but I do think some for of a system will kick out like this next week.  So lets watch it and I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

New Years: Cold and mainly dry.  40s return over the weekend.

January 3rd-9th:  Staying cool to start the week with some rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see if any cold air can work in to give us any wintry weather chances.  As colder air works in late in the week we will see some additional rain and snow chances on Saturday.

January 10th-16th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures quickly returning.  Rain chances increase for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  A second system works in for the weekend with rain and snow chances.

January 17th-23rd:  Cool with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cold through the middle of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Also slight chances for rain by the weekend.

Saturday PM Dec. 26th Blog: Massive storm system is here. Storms, Very heavy rain, snow

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Good Saturday midday!  I hope you had a great Christmas.  Mine was fantastic and I am kinda glad that I got through it all with my 6 year old.  It is a very stressful age where he just wants gift after gift after gift.  I am trying to teach him how lucky he is to have ONE gift.  Kids now days!  We are heading to KC, to do Christmas with my sister, mom and some extended family here in just a bit.  But of course my love of my life, well weather love of my life has to come first.  I have to update you on what is going on.  I am seriously impressed on what is moving in this weekend.  The amount of rain parts of the area will see if absolutely amazing!  So lets get to it!

Very heavy rains today, they will increase through the day.  Lets look at the evening hours.

Rain this evening

Look at this huge system heading in our direction.

Sunday AM 500

This is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  This is the same system we had back on November 7th-9th.  Heavy rains continue into Sunday morning.

Sunday AM precip

You can see the bands of very heavy rains continuing in the yellow.  Just west of the viewing area we are seeing very heavy sleet and snow with several inches of snow.  Check out the precip totals by morning.

Sunday AM precip totals

Already at this time we will have very heavy rain amounts.  From extreme SE KS, NE OK, NW AR and SW MO, amounts from 2-7″ of rain.

Lets continue into the Sunday evening.

Sunday PM precip

Extremely heavy rains continue.  Also at this point, Iola, Yates Center, Chanute, Fredonia and back to Wichita should all be a rain/snow or sleet mix.  This will continue through Sunday night with the snow line slowly working SE.

Noon Monday

By midday Monday, there should be heavy snow east at least to the state line of KS/MO.  KC should have a band of very heavy snow with several inches in about a 6 hour period.  All of SE KS and NE OK have the best shot to pick up accumulating snows.  In SW MO and NW AR, it looks like a rain/snow mix right now with little accumulation, but needs to be watched.

Total precip

Here are total precipitation amounts.  This is crazy with rain totals along and south of I-44 in the range of 6-12″.  Lets look at total snowfall amounts.

Total Snowfall

The heaviest track of snow is from the panhandles to Wichita to KC.  At this time Joplin looks to be 1″ or less with increasing amounts as you work NW into SE KS.  As you work toward Chanute and  Yates Center, amounts look to be in the 3-6″ range.  A lot can still change as this system could shift a few miles south and the snow line shifts south or it could shift north.  We also need to watch out for the flooding rains.  We are going to see extreme flooding!!!!!!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

New Years: Cold and mainly dry.

January 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Wednesday could be rain or snow.  Colder the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Saturday.

January 10th-16th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures quickly returning.  Rain chances increase for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  A second system works in for the weekend with rain and snow chances.

January 17th-23rd:  Cool with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cold through the middle of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Also slight chances for rain by the weekend.

Christmas Eve Blog: Big system working in! T-Storms, Heavy Rain, Ice and snow!

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Happy Merry Christmas Eve, ha ha.  I am getting stuff done around the house.  Is it really Christmas again.  I feel like I just took the tree down from last year.  This life thing we go through is just flying by!!!!!!!!!!!  I guess that means enjoy each and everyday.  Well today looks like a pretty good day.  We have had a lot of clouds as yet another fast moving wave is passing by.  We had a wave yesterday that produced huge tornadoes across the SE US.  That was major severe weather outbreak for anytime of the year.  This wave today gave us a few random showers this morning and snow from Omaha to Des Moines.  However, the next couple of days look pretty good with highs near 60 in the Joplin metro.  So lets jump to our next system.  Our big upper level low digs out on Saturday.  Remember with the Heady Pattern we have a recurring pattern.  This is the same system we had back on November 9th, 10th and 11th.  So we sit around 46-47 days.

Saturday night 500

Look at the huge storm system.  The question is where is this guy going to go?  If he tracks out into eastern MO, it will produce wintry weather from the panhandles through central OK, up through SE KS, SW MO, KC into Iowa.  As of now (which we are still a few days out) this looks like the most likely track. However, if it goes farther south, the system will have less cold air and mainly just affect the southern states.  So there is a lot to watch.  On Saturday, we will mainly see rain in the central plains.

Saturday night Rain

Look at the heavy rains from Texas up into MO.  Some of these storms could be on the strong side in Texas and Arkansas but I think OK and MO will mainly have just heavy rains.  In pink is a wintry mix with blue being snow.  Look at the rain totals projected by Saturday night.

Saturday night rain totals

Along and south of I-44 could see 2-5″ of rain just by Saturday night.  Lets jump into Sunday as the colder air starts to work in.

Midday Sunday precip

On Sunday, we will still have rain south of I-44 with sleet and snow north and west of I-44. Heavy wintry weather in central and western OK.  This continues into Monday as the main upper level wave kicks out.

Monday 500

You can see the wave kicking out across NE Arkansas and SE MO.  This is just like it kicked out on November 11th but farther south due to the stronger Jet Stream.  So we are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  This would take the wintry weather NE into central MO.

Monday eve precip

You can see the heavy snow from central OK through central MO.  Most of this would be out of here by Tuesday morning.  Amounts would be very hard to peg down as we don’t know the exact track right now.  I would expect the band of sleet and snow to produce 3-6″ in most locations with some areas getting 6-12″ especially back in central OK.  A lot to watch and I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the this week:  Mild with highs in the 50s and 60s through Saturday.  Rain increases late Christmas and Saturday.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain, sleet and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Cold through most of the week with rain and snow chances returning by the weekend.

January 3rd-9th:  Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  Cool temperatures stick around most of the week with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday with our next storm system.

January 10th-16th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down for the weekend with rain and snow chances returning.

January 17th-23rd:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool through the first half of the week with mild temperatures returning for the second half.  Slight chances of rain on Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday AM Blog Dec. 23rd: Big system heading our way!

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your shopping is done, or going great, hey maybe you haven’t started yet.  If you haven’t, tick tock.  I have most of mine done, but I still have a few things I need to pick up and I am stressing about that.  Hopefully I will get those done here over the next two days or I have ran out of time.

Well we are in the active stretch of the pattern as we have had many little systems that have rolled through and even a couple big ones over the past couple of weeks.  The problem has been no cold air.  If we can’t get the blocking up in Canada to push the cold air south we are going to get rain.  We still don’t have the blocking right now, but there are some signs over the next couple of weeks that could change a little bit.  We have a big storm system this weekend that will push cold air very close to most of us.  This will produce a major winter storm across the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma and up through Kansas.  The question is how far east will this go?  It all depends on the track of the upper low.  First off a storm system has been passing through today.

500

This system is a fairly fast moving system that will cool us down just a bit today.  Showers and thunderstorms will push east but some could be severe across the southern states.

Storms today

As this pushes out, we can focus on the next system over the holiday weekend.

Sunday 500

Look at the massive storm across Texas.  This is a little stronger and farther south than last time, like it should be.  Also it is right on track at about 46-47 days with the Heady Pattern.  Lets go back to November 11th.

November 11th

You can see this same strong system back in November.  It just wasn’t as far south due to the Jet Stream being a little weaker in the fall months.  So the big key is where will that low track.  If it tracks into MO, the snow line tracks farther east.  If it tracks into KS, the snow line stays west.  Lets look at where it looks like it will go right now.  Here is Saturday evening.

Saturday precip

Showers and thunderstorms break out with very heavy rains.  On Sunday the colder air works in.

Sunday precip

On Sunday we would have a wintry mix from KC south to Joplin. Then heavy snow in southern KS and OK back through Texas.  This system lifts NNE on Monday.

Monday precip

On Monday the heavy band of snow lifts from SE KS through NW MO.  Now that is only if this system tracks out like this.  As of now I would say the heaviest snows will fall from the panhandles through north central OK and up through central and NE KS.  As you work SE lighter amounts will fall.  In the heavy swath of snow a foot could easily happen and needs to be watched.  This whole track and whole system needs to be watched closely.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the this week:  Mild with highs in the 50s and 60s through Saturday.  Rain increases late Christmas and Saturday.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow on Sunday, with all snow possible at this time on Monday.  Heaviest snow across central OK, through KS.  Cold and dry through the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

January 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week but cooler temperatures working in.  Rain and snow chances through the beginning of the week.  The second half of the week will be cooler and mainly dry.

January 10th-16th:  Mild with slight chances for rain on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit late in the week with rain and snow chances by Saturday.

January 17th-23rd:  A cold and dry start to the week.  The second half of the week will be mild with slight chances of rain.

Saturday PM December 19th: Active stretch of the Heady Pattern, but will we have snow?

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Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope your weekend is going great so far.  I am trying to get a little work done before Stacey, Christian and I shoot up to KC this afternoon.  Stacey and my mom are heading to see the nutcracker which I have zero interest in seeing.  So my son an I are going to a Christmas party with some high school friends.

Update on my sister as a lot of people ask.  She is fighting away with her breast cancer.  She has now gone through 2 major rounds of chemo and has been fighting the sickness and is super tired.  She still has several surgeries she will have to have once she finishes up the big dog chemo treatments.  However, she seems to be responding fairly well.  Gina and I argue over KU and MU.  Of course I graduated from KU back in 2002.  So over the past couple of years I have given her a couple KU gifts, lol.  Of course I get some MU gifts in return, ugh.  This is what I got in the mail the other day.

MU

Oh I have a pretty good idea where I will display this, lol.  I will let you know soon, ha ha ha ha.  Let the games continue!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The weather has been great so far today.  We will see highs into the 50s over the weekend.  Lets see where we are at in the Heady Pattern.

Today 500

You can see the wave across the NE and then the second wave dropping into the SW US.  So lets go back to November 2nd.  You will be able to see that same look in the pattern.  In a sense today is November 2nd.

November 2nd

You can see the very similar look.  This will hold with our storm systems working out day by day.  Late tomorrow and into Monday we have a week system working out that will give us a few scattered showers.  This system won’t have a ton of moisture to work with but it will give us a lot of wind tomorrow and some scattered showers.

Monday AM

Showers will last into Monday morning and then push off toward the east.

Most of the week we will have nice mild temperatures heading into Christmas.  Our next wave moves in on Wednesday and into Christmas Eve.

Wednesday 500

You can see this system sliding across the northern plains on Wednesday.  However, again this sytem will struggle for moisture.

Wednesday surface

So we could have a few showers on Wednesday and that should be about it.  Travel on Wednesday and Thursday should be pretty decent across the central plains.   The holiday weekend looks a little different.  We have a stronger wave that will drop into the southern plains.  This system should produce heavier amounts of rain across the region.

Next Sunday

You can see the stronger system dropping deep in the SW.  This is the same system we had back on November 10th and 11th.

Nov. 11th

This time around with a stronger jet it should drop a little farther to the south.  Showers and thunderstorms will spread in next weekend.

Next Sunday precip

The big question is will we get cold air to give us our first winter storm of the season.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A few showers on Sunday, then mild and fairly nice through the middle of the week.  We could see a few more showers popping up on Wednesday and into Christmas Eve, but this doesn’t look like a big deal.  Briefly cooler for Christmas Eve, but warmer for the holiday weekend.  Showers and thunderstorms spread in for the weekend.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  The second half of the week should be dry with temperatures warming up a bit.

January 3rd-9th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Cooler temperatures with wintry weather possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool and mainly dry the rest of the week.

January 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures return with rain chances for the middle of the week.  This system will be interesting as it will be prolonged and could have wintry weather on the backside by the weekend.

Friday PM Dec. 18th: Pattern continues to pick up

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope your week has gone great! Mine has been pretty good, but a busy week.  I am always happy it is Friday and looking forward to the weekend.  I need to finish up some Christmas shopping over the next several days plus the wrapping of the presents.  I am not the best at wrapping presents but I do get it done.  After a little light snow in SE KS, NE OK, SW MO and NW AR yesterday, temperatures will continue to warm up a bit over the weekend.  Our next system works in on Sunday with a few showers.  This system doesn’t have a lot of moisture to work with, but I still think we will see scattered showers across the central plains.  Lets take a look.

Sunday 500

Here is the weak wave rolling through, now lets drop to the surface.

Sunday precip

We will stay fairly mild into next week with another wave right before Christmas.  Again this wave is weak and disorganized.  This system will get its act together as it passes by the central plains.

Christmas Eve 500

I don’t expect to see more than a few random showers next Wednesday and Thursday.

Christmas Eve Precip

This system now puts us right in line with what we had in early November with the Heady Pattern.  November was a very active month for the HP.  We have another system that will move in starting next weekend and early the following week right now schedule.  Lets jump ahead to about the 27th.

Sunday 27th 500

This is a model out-put but it is getting the general idea of what should happen.  We will have another fairly strong system working through.

Sunday 27th precip

This big question is will it be rain, snow or ice?

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A few showers on Sunday, then mild and fairly nice through the middle of the week.  We could see a few more showers popping up on Wednesday and into Christmas Eve, but this doesn’t look like a big deal.  Briefly cooler for Christmas Eve, but warmer for the holiday weekend.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  The second half of the week should be dry with temperatures warming up a bit.

January 3rd-9th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Cooler temperatures with wintry weather possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool and mainly dry the rest of the week.

January 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures return with rain chances for the middle of the week.  This system will be interesting as it will be prolonged and could have wintry weather on the backside by the weekend.

Wednesday Dec 16th Blog: Lets look at Christmas!

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Good afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine hasn’t been to bad.  I am just trying to finish up all of my shopping and get some stuff done around the house before I head to work.  I am not a big shopper, so this Christmas shopping stuff isn’t very fun.

Much cooler temperatures for us today and this is the way it looks for the rest of the week.  We will warm up a bit over the weekend as a week wave passes through on Sunday and Monday.  However, it won’t have much moisture to work with and it looks like it will mature mainly east of the region.  So I am going to throw in just slight chances for rain in the forecast.

Monday precip

Our next system pushes in on Wednesday, right before Christmas Eve.  This is a stronger system but still a little disorganized.  I am interested to see if it will become more organized over the next week as it works in.  Also I am interested to see where it develops.  As of now it looks like again it will mainly mature just east of the region.  This means we wouldn’t see much moisture or cold air.  However, we do need to watch it.

Next Wednesday 500

This is the same system in the Heady Pattern that we had back on November 5th and 6th.

Nov 5th Wave

As you can see most of the moisture is east of the region.

Next Wednesday precip

So as of right now I am going to give us about a 10% chance for a white Christmas and dropping.  Lets see how this system looks over the next few days.  Their does look to be a stronger system working in the next week that we really need to watch.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Much cooler and mainly dry.

Next Week:  Rain chances return on Sunday and Monday.  Staying fairly mild through the first half of the week.  Rain chances return on Wednesday with slight chances for snow late Wednesday.  Cooler temperatures and mainly dry the rest of the week.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  The second half of the week should be dry with temperatures warming up a bit.

January 3rd-9th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Cooler temperatures with wintry weather possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool and mainly dry the rest of the week.

January 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures return with rain chances for the middle of the week.  This system will be interesting as it will be prolonged and could have wintry weather on the backside by the weekend.

Tuesday Dec 15th Blog: Colder temperatures work in.

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I hope your week has started off great!  Mine has been pretty good.  I had a great fast trip to Boston and Cape Cod over the past few days.  The weather there was fantastic, actually a lot better then what we had here in the mid west with all of the rain over the weekend.  At least we have rebounded today with great temperatures expect the northern plains with the snow going on up there.

This system the is shifting through just doesn’t have a ton of moisture to work with.  So in return, we are just seeing snow in the northern plains and that is about it.  I do have my concerns for winter lovers for this winter.  We have a very active pattern but we aren’t getting any blocking.

AO

I am looking at the top section here is this is what is called the AO.  We need this guy to go negative.  Well it has been pretty much on the positive side.  As long as it stays pretty much positive, we will struggle all winter to get much cold air pushing south.  This means we will continue to see big rain makers and not much snow makers.  I do think it will go negative some, but not much.  We will get a few storms and they could be decent size storms, but we aren’t going to get hit over and over again this winter.  So when we get the winter weather we much enjoy it.  Lets look at the system pushing through now.

500 tomorrow

You can see this big upper level system that is bringing colder air south.  This is the same system we saw back on October 28th.  Remember we have seen this system cycle through about 3 times now.

October 28th

So this should be a northern plains system like it has been in the past.  On the surface you can see the snow across the northern plains.

Surface tomorrow

Next week gets a little more interesting.  We have two systems that will push out into our area.  The first will be early in the week with the second on Christmas Eve.  We could see some wintry weather in the central plains.  I am digging into this one right now.  We will talk about this next!

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Much cooler and mainly dry.

Next Week:  Rain chances return on Sunday and Monday.  Staying fairly mild through the first half of the week.  Rain moves back in on Wednesday with a rain/snow mix or snow on Christmas Eve.  This is something we want to watch.  Turning cooler for the holiday weekend with slight chances for rain and snow over the weekend.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with slight chances for rain or snow to start the week.  A bigger system will work in on Tuesday and Wednesday with rain and snow chances.  Cold and dry for the rest of the week.

January 3rd-9th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  Cooler temperatures with wintry weather possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool and mainly dry the rest of the week.

January 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures return with rain chances for the middle of the week.  This system will be interesting as it will be prolonged and could have wintry weather on the backside by the weekend.

Thursday night/Friday Morning Dec. 10th/11th: The active stretch of the Heady Pattern is here!

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Good Thursday night!  I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good so far, but busy.  Today has been crazy.  I have fought a migraine all day long, which is nothing new for me.  Once I felt good enough to actually stand up I decided to do some laundry for my short trip.  I have an early flight as I am heading to Boston for 3 days.  Well of course I have to do a little bit of laundry.  Well the dryer decided to give me an error code.  Hmm, after using wonderful google for a while it is the circuit board.  Ok, well will deal with that when I get home.  I have been working since then and will go home and pack.  Just another day in my busy life, lol.

We have had amazing temperatures around here all week long.  After last weeks below average temperatures all week, we have been above average all this week here in Joplin, MO.  Lets jump into Saturday as this is the beginning of the active pattern that will be here for about the next 4 weeks.

Saturday evening

Look at the showers and thunderstorms from about KC south to Houston on Saturday evening.  Some of these will be strong to severe mainly along and south of I-44.  The best chances for severe weather will be eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas and eastern Texas.  Heavy rains with showers and thunderstorms continue across the central and southern plains Saturday night.  Snow will break out across the northern plains.  Colder air will start to work in with the second surge of energy on Sunday.

Sunday AM

I still think most of the central and southern plains will have showers and thunderstorms by Sunday morning.  However, by Sunday evening I do think we could see at least a rain/snow mix as the upper level low shifts by.

Sunday evening

In the circled area is where I think we could see a rain/snow mix.  Lets go ahead and look at the next system next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Next Wednesday

Here is our system for Next Wednesday.  As of right now it looks like the moisture will be split across the northern and southern plains.  We do need to watch it closely of course.  It was a little more organized the last time it worked through on Halloween.

October 31st

A lot to watch over the next few weeks.

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Weekend:  Showers and thunderstorms, some possible severe mainly south of I-44 late Saturday.  Rain on Sunday that could mix with some snow late in the day.

Next Week:  Nice temperatures stick around for Monday and Tuesday.  We need to watch the mid-week system as a few showers or even snow showers are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler temperatures work back for Friday, but it should be dry.  Warming up for Saturday with slight chances for rain returning.

December 20th-26th:  Rain and snow chances to start the week on Sunday and Monday with a pretty strong system working through.  Cooler temperatures stick around through the week with slight chances for rain and snow on Christmas Eve and Day.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain and snow chances to start the week with cold temperatures.  We will see mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with rain chances by the 1st.  Colder air works in for the weekend with some snow chances.

January 3rd-9th:  A cold start to the week with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cold most of the week with snow chances again on Wednesday.  Warmer temperatures working in for the weekend.

Wednesday AM Dec. 9th: Warm temperatures, but changes moving in!

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I hope you are having a great work week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  I have a lot I need to get done today before work.  I feel like I can never catch up.  I am sure a lot of you feel the same way.  I have a couple days to get stuff done then I am off to Boston for a few days for a wedding.  Stacey (better half) has a high school friend that is getting married.  I am looking forward to that trip.  If you have never been to Boston, that is a pretty cool city.  Well minus the Patriots, ha ha, go Chiefs.  Stacey is going to kill me is she reads this!

Starting this Friday, we enter the active stretch of the Heady Pattern that will last until about January 15th.  From January 15th through Feb. 1st will be calm, then the whole month of February is active once again.  The first half of March is calm, the second half of March and the first half of April is active.  I think you see the trend here.  Here is the given, spring is going to rock and roll.  We are going to see one of the most active severe weather seasons we have seen in a while.  Now the winter is going to be active, but will it be all rain?  We need to get some arctic air down here.  This wasn’t a problem that past two winters as we had cold winters.  This isn’t going to be the case this winter.  We need the AO to block up a couple times this winter.

AO

Here is the Arctic Oscillation. If the AO stays positive all winter, we stay warm.  If it can go negative some we will get some arctic air.  You can see from above it wants to go negative here in about a week.  This is in the active stretch of weather.  So lets look at the next two systems.  System one moves in this weekend.

Sunday 500

Here is the upper level map with our next system for Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Lets compare back to October 28th, this is about 46 days.

October 28th

This is the same exact system.  Now, this system looks to be mainly a rain maker across the central plains.  Here is at the surface for Saturday.

Saturday night precip

We could get some cold air in here on Sunday, but I think most of it will stay across the northern plains.  So lets jump to next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Next Tuesday

The models want this to be a very fast moving wave that doesn’t dig south.  However, by the pattern it should dig farther south.  Lets go back to Halloween.

October 31st

You can see on October 31st it dug farther south.  That is something I want to watch.  Plenty more systems will move in after this before and right after Christmas.  A ton to talk about.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Warm and partly sunny.  Showers and thunderstorms work in for Saturday.

Next Week:  Left over rain and a few snow showers on Sunday.  A quick rebound in temperatures on Monday ahead of our next wave for Tuesday.  Turning cooler with rain and snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler the rest of the week until the weekend.  Mild temperatures return for Saturday with rain chances.

December 20th-26th:  Mild with rain chances to start the week.  As cooler air works in we will see rain and snow chances on Monday.  Then the colder temperatures settle in for the middle of the week.  Slight chances for rain and snow on Christmas Eve and Day.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain and snow chances to start the week with cold temperatures.  We will see mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with rain chances by the 1st.  Colder air works in for the weekend with some snow chances.

January 3rd-9th:  A cold start to the week with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cold most of the week with snow chances again on Wednesday.  Warmer temperatures working in for the weekend.