I hope everyone has had a great week. Mine has been pretty good, busy but pretty good. I have had a very boring weather week. If you know me, I hate when nothing is going on with the weather. That means I get on-air and feel like their is nothing to talk about. However, all of you are happy as can be. Now in the summer when I want to go to the lake I love the hot and dry conditions, lol. It is going to start to get active over the next several weeks. We are still in the lull of the pattern which will still last for about the next 7 or 8 days or so. After that, we will go through a pretty good stretch of weather that is going to be pretty active. I think the Heady Pattern is absolutely amazing! I found this back in 1999 in college and have been working on it since then. While working with Gary Lezak(Chief Meteorologist KSHB-TV, Kansas City, MO) before coming here to Joplin 13+ years ago we really started finding the heart of this pattern. Gary calls the pattern the LRC (Lezak Recurring Pattern). Another meteorologist with Gary, Jeff Penner has also been working on it for many years. We have built a team of 5 meteorologist and are really pushing forward as a team. What is amazing is somehow, don’t ask me how, we are the only ones who have figure this out. Hey, that works for me!!!! We have built some weather contests that we do every month which are pretty cool. Plus we have forum on the our weather2020.com site that you can check out if you are interested.
So what is going to happen? Well we are in the boring part of the pattern. Remember the pattern starts around September 20th with the cycle starting prior to that depending on the year between May and August. This years cycle started around August 1st. We have had two main cycles I have been watching, a transition cycle that we have every year and the true main cycle. The true main cycle looks to be in the range of 47-50 days. This is very typical for an El Nino year. El Nino years seem to have shorter cycles as La Nina years have longer cycles. So today is about October 16th in the cycle. So lets go down the road for the next big system. We have to go to next weekend. Here is a look.
I want you to look at the deep system next Saturday across Oklahoma and Texas. Plus you can see the second system in the Pacific NW. This is the beginning of the active stretch. We saw this before, but a weaker version in October. Lets go back to October, 24th.
You can see the same system, but not near as strong. The Jet was weaker as always in October. So lets go to the surface map for next Saturday.
As of right now, this looks like showers and thunderstorms. However, we need to watch the track and see if cold air can pump in and give us some snow on the backside. This should set the stage for colder air to work south for the next few systems. Lets jump ahead a few days to December 16th. This would be the next system in line.
You can see a much deeper system with colder air in place. This would give the central and southern plains our first real shot for snow.
Lets see how this matches with the pattern, of course right on schedule.
Here again is the weaker version but still a strong storm on October 28th.
This gives you an idea of all of the systems stacking up for us. Check out the long range forecast below. I will keep you updated.
Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Weekend: Mostly sunny on Saturday with highs well into the 50s. Mostly cloudy on Sunday with a slight chances for a shower with a weak wave rolling through.
Next Week: A pretty calm week, but a couple week waves on Tuesday and Wednesday. These waves will give us some clouds and a slight shot for a shower. Temperatures look nice as we stay above average. Mild temperatures stick around through the week with showers and even a few thunderstorm chances increasing by the weekend.
December 13th-19th: Cooler with rain or snow chances on Sunday and Monday. Staying cool through most of the week with rain and snow chances once again on Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chances for snow will be across KS, MO and northern OK. A brief break with additional chances for rain and snow on Friday and Saturday.
December 20th-26th: A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Monday. Warming up a bit with rain and snow chances on the 24th and 25th! Then cooling back down for the holiday weekend.
December 27th-2nd: Cool with slight chances for rain and snow on Sunday and Monday. Mild with rain chances moving back in Wednesday. Colder air works in Thursday with rain or snow chances. Cooler and dry the rest of the week.