Archive: Dec 2015

Friday Dec. 4th Blog: It is going to get wild! Lets look toward Christmas

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I hope everyone has had a great week.  Mine has been pretty good, busy but pretty good.  I have had a very boring weather week.  If you know me, I hate when nothing is going on with the weather.  That means I get on-air and feel like their is nothing to talk about.  However, all of you are happy as can be.  Now in the summer when I want to go to the lake I love the hot and dry conditions, lol.  It is going to start to get active over the next several weeks.  We are still in the lull of the pattern which will still last for about the next 7 or 8 days or so.  After that, we will go through a pretty good stretch of weather that is going to be pretty active.  I think the Heady Pattern is absolutely amazing!  I found this back in 1999 in college and have been working on it since then.  While working with Gary Lezak(Chief Meteorologist KSHB-TV, Kansas City, MO) before coming here to Joplin 13+ years ago we really started finding the heart of this pattern.  Gary calls the pattern the LRC (Lezak Recurring Pattern).  Another meteorologist with Gary, Jeff Penner has also been working on it for many years.  We have built a team of 5 meteorologist and are really pushing forward as a team.  What is amazing is somehow, don’t ask me how, we are the only ones who have figure this out.  Hey, that works for me!!!!  We have built some weather contests that we do every month which are pretty cool.  Plus we have forum on the our weather2020.com site that you can check out if you are interested.

So what is going to happen?  Well we are in the boring part of the pattern.  Remember the pattern starts around September 20th with the cycle starting prior to that depending on the year between May and August.  This years cycle started around August 1st.  We have had two main cycles I have been watching, a transition cycle that we have every year and the true main cycle.  The true main cycle looks to be in the range of 47-50 days.  This is very typical for an El Nino year.  El Nino years seem to have shorter cycles as La Nina years have longer cycles.  So today is about October 16th in the cycle.  So lets go down the road for the next big system.  We have to go to next weekend.  Here is a look.

Next Saturday 500

I want you to look at the deep system next Saturday across Oklahoma and Texas.  Plus you can see the second system in the Pacific NW.  This is the beginning of the active stretch.  We saw this before, but a weaker version in October.  Lets go back to October, 24th.

October 24th

You can see the same system, but not near as strong.  The Jet was weaker as always in October.  So lets go to the surface map for next Saturday.

Next Saturday

As of right now, this looks like showers and thunderstorms.  However, we need to watch the track and see if cold air can pump in and give us some snow on the backside.  This should set the stage for colder air to work south for the next few systems.  Lets jump ahead a few days to December 16th.  This would be the next system in line.

Dec 16th 500

You can see a much deeper system with colder air in place.  This would give the central and southern plains our first real shot for snow.

Dec 16th precip

Lets see how this matches with the pattern, of course right on schedule.

October 28th

Here again is the weaker version but still a strong storm on October 28th.

This gives you an idea of all of the systems stacking up for us.  Check out the long range forecast below.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Weekend:  Mostly sunny on Saturday with highs well into the 50s.  Mostly cloudy on Sunday with a slight chances for a shower with a weak wave rolling through.

Next Week:  A pretty calm week, but a couple week waves on Tuesday and Wednesday.  These waves will give us some clouds and a slight shot for a shower.  Temperatures look nice as we stay above average.  Mild temperatures stick around through the week with showers and even a few thunderstorm chances increasing by the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Cooler with rain or snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through most of the week with rain and snow chances once again on Tuesday and Wednesday.  The best chances for snow will be across KS, MO and northern OK.  A brief break with additional chances for rain and snow on Friday and Saturday.

December 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Monday.  Warming up a bit with rain and snow chances on the 24th and 25th!  Then cooling back down for the holiday weekend.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with slight chances for rain and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Mild with rain chances moving back in Wednesday.  Colder air works in Thursday with rain or snow chances.  Cooler and dry the rest of the week.

Wednesday Dec. 2nd: Chilly but a calm week. It will get active!

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Good late Wednesday morning!  I hope your day is going great.  I am getting a few things done around the house this morning.  Plus I need to do some online Christmas shopping for my son.  He is on a monster truck craze, I think the kid has just about every single one out there.  I am trying to see what I can find for him.  It is still cold but at least we have the sun once again.  We did have a few snow showers last night that didn’t amount to anything as they quickly blew through the area.  If fact the rest of the week looks pretty good as we will see a nice warming trend into the 50s over the next few days.  This will last into the weekend until we see our next weak system working in on Sunday.  Lets take a look.

96 hour 500

You can see the upper level wave swinging in on Sunday.  However, this system will have very little moisture to work with.  It could produce a few random showers or snow showers and that is about it.  Here is a look at the precip map for Sunday.

Precip Sunday

This is also the same system that we had back in early to mid October.  We had a wave that swung through that was a little farther north but the same wave.  The Jet Stream wasn’t as strong so it didn’t dig as far south back on October 12th.

October 12th

We will see a few weak waves next week but a much bigger system will work in next weekend.  This system will dig into the SW US like we have seen many times during this pattern.  Remember we are already in cycle 3 of the Heady Pattern and we have seen this many times and will continue to see this.  Lets take a look at what we should see.  Here is Monday the 14th

Next Monday 500

This is really the next bigger system we want to watch for rain and snow across the region.   Here is a look at the surface at the same time.

Next Monday precip

Of course, I will keep you updated.

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of this week:  A slow warming trend through the week with highs warming into the 50s by Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Next Week:  We have our weak wave with a few showers on Sunday, then turning a little cooler for Monday.  Temperatures will stay near average and mainly dry through the week.  Their is one weak wave that I am watching around Wednesday that could give us a few showers but that is about it.  Mild temperatures and rain chances return for Saturday.

December 13th-19th:  Rain on Sunday, but turning cooler with possibly some wintry weather by Monday.  Staying cool most of the week with our next system due in on Wednesday and Thursday with slight chances for rain or snow.

December 20th-26th:  Another system to start the week with rain and snow chances for Sunday and Monday.  We will stay cool most of the week with another system working in from the 23rd – 25th.  This will give us rain and snow chances.  So if you want a white Christmas, keep your fingers crossed.

December 27th-2nd:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures by the middles of the week.  Rain and snow chances move in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then colder temperatures for the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow by the weekend.

Tuesday December 1st Blog: Much calmer weather for now!

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I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend and you are now back in the swing of things this week.  At least we finally got rid of this storm system that gave us a cold rain and some areas freezing rain.  Today is  the first day that we have even seen the sun in a week.  That is depressing!  However, at least this week will be much calmer and we will warm up a bit over the next few days.  We are still going to be pretty chilly over the next couple of days as we have a NW flow behind this system.

Wednesday 500

We are in the part of the Heady Pattern that we had back in about the middle of October now.  I haven’t done the exact math but this system will roll back through in the January 10-15th time frame.  During that time of the year we should have a more widespread ice event.  Our weather across the central plains doesn’t get active again until the middle and later half of next week.  So we get a nice little break across the region.  Later this week we actually warm up some.  Look at our afternoon highs by Friday.

Friday

Most areas should be well into the 50s for highs which will be nice!

Doug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of this week:  A slow warming trend through the week with highs warming into the 50s by Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Next Week:  Mild most of the week with slight chances for rain on Wednesday and Thursday.  However, a bigger system will work in for the weekend.

December 13th-19th:  Rain chances to start the week with colder temperatures working in.  We could see some wintry weather around Monday and Tuesday if enough colder air works into this system.  Another system works in late in the week with additional rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 20th-26th:  A cool start to the week with slight chances for snow on Sunday.  Warming back up with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down for Christmas Eve with rain or snow chances.  Rain and snow chances return again for the weekend.

December 27th-2nd:  Cool with rain or snow chances on Sunday. Staying cool through the week with rain or snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the start of 2016.