Archive: Jan 2016

Saturday night Jan. 30th: Colder temps and a storm system working in.

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Good Saturday evening!  I hope you have had a great weekend so far.  Hopefully you have gotten a chance to get outside over the past two days and enjoy the amazing spring temperatures.  Of course we are going to see some changes working in.  I got outside and did some exercising today which is always nice.  My son Christian, has his last basketball game late this morning.  Here is a picture of Christian, my mom and me after his game.

BBall pic

This afternoon, I washed the truck and played with my sons remote control car for a good 45 minutes.  I think I actually bought that for myself, that thing runs over 30 mph.  It does have a slight dent in the front after the neighbors mailbox jumped out in front of the car, shhh.

Of course we have changes working in.  A cold front will pass through in the morning that will start to drop our temperatures.

Sunday AM Precip

We may see a random shower but that is about it.  Look at the cooler temperatures settle in for Monday ahead of the stronger system working in.

Monday Am temps

This is a strong upper level low that will kick out late Monday.  This is the same system that passed one cycle ago on December 13th.  In fact, we had weaker versions of this system in October and back in August.

Monday night 500

This system will track from the panhandles into NE MO.

Tuesday evening 500

You can see by Tuesday evening, it is working out of the region.  So what will it produce?  Lets take a look.

Monday PM precip

By late Monday, rain and snow will spread into central KS and western OK.  The rain and snow will continue to push east on Monday night.  Here is a look at Tuesday morning.

Tuesday AM precip

Very heavy snow will be falling across central and NE KS.  The rain/snow line should be right around the KC metro.  This could be a case where the south side of the city see’s mainly rain while the north side picks up snow.  Farther south in Joplin, southern MO, OK and AR, will all be a cold rain.

Tuesday evening precip

By Tuesday night, the system wraps up and pushes out.  Snow showers will continue from about I-44 in NE OK and SW MO points north into Iowa.  I think for my area (Joplin area) any snow would be light.  However, there will be a line of upwards of a foot of snow from central KS, NE KS, SE NB and into central Iowa.  The heavy snow will cut-off right around the KC metro.

Much colder temperatures work in for the rest of the week.  I have my eyes on a possible system over Super Bowl weekend (if we can get the moisture to return) and early the following week.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler late Tuesday with some light snow Tuesday night.  Staying cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow as we work into the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  Slight chances for snow on Sunday with another system working in on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will give us rain and snow chances.  Stay cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances again on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Thursday night Jan. 28th Blog: Warm temperatures but changes moving in. Plus long range forecast through severe weather season.

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Good Thursday night.  I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine hasn’t been to bad.  Well my refrigerator died on my.  It is a Bosch and the replacement parts are expensive and I am not even sure what is wrong with it yet.  I think it is the mother board but who knows.  So we lost our food that was in there, ugh.  So I will see how that turns out.  I really don’t want to drop a grand or more on another one right now or really ever.

At least the weather is great!  Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.  I have the long range forecast posted through May.  The entire central US is warming up and will continue to over the next few days.  Look at the warm temperatures Friday.

Warmer Temps

We will continue to see temperatures around 20 degrees above normal for most of us over the next couple of days.  The next big system pushes in on Monday.  The main question with this system is the cold air.  I think the track is pretty set even though the models have it pretty far north right now.  Let me show you.

Monday 500

Here is the projected position for the upper level low on Monday.  You can see the center right across SE Colorado.  Lets go back to December 13th, this was the last time it rolled through.

Dec. 13th

Last time it was oh 150-200 miles farther south.  I think the models have this storm system hair to far to the north and it will track a little farther south.  With that said, it should track out into SW MO and then into NE MO.  Again the question will be the temperatures.  Here is the moisture for Monday night.

Monday night precip

A big batch of rain and snow will push through.  However, I wouldn’t be surprised if that rain/snow line is a little farther south from Wichita into central MO.  Then heavy snow across central KS into NE KS and up into Iowa.  By Tuesday night, the colder air filters in and we get into the wrap around precip.

Tuesday night precip

Tuesday night will be the wrap around snow.  As of now I am expecting a band of light snow from NE OK northward with heavier amounts the farther north you travel.  I think around the Joplin metro the amounts will be light, but lets watch the temperatures.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler late Tuesday with some light snow Tuesday night and into Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain and snow as we work into the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  Slight chances for snow on Sunday with another system working in on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will give us rain and snow chances.  Stay cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances again on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

 

Wednesday AM January 27th Blog: A warm-up, but more storm systems

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Good Wednesday morning.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  I have been busy, but what is new.  I need to get the Jack (German Shepherd) into the vet over the next couple of days.  Poor guys is starting to limp a little bit after he has been laying down for a long time.  He is 6 years old and I know this is common for German Shepherds.  Also I need to get to the doctor, I have something wrong with my tendons in my hand.  It could be that I stay up to late typing on blogs!!!  I am working on my long range forecast for you through severe weather season.  I will post that on my next blog.  We are getting close to finishing up our 4th cycle.  Remember we started this cycle way back at the end of July.  We will see another switch in cycles here in the early summer months.  At least this part of the Heady Pattern isn’t to bad.  We will continue to warm up across the central plains for the rest of the week.  As we work into the weekend we have a fairly zonal pattern.  This means all of the storm systems are flat and up in the northern US.

Friday 500

Here is a look at heading into the weekend.  Lets go back one cycle in the Heady Pattern.

December 12th

You can see this is the exact same thing we did one cycle ago on December 12th.  But it is what happens after this what gets interesting.

Monday 500

Look at the big system that drops into the southern Rockies and just west of the panhandles.  The placement of this storm was identical one cycle ago.

December 13th

So this tells me it should track to exact same spot that it did last time.  Now I wouldn’t be surprised if it is a little farther south because the Jet Stream is a little stronger, but lets see where it tracked.

December 14th

On December 14th, you can see it in north MO.  Now lets go to the projected model for next Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

It takes it right into northern MO.  So if we saw this exact track, showers and thunderstorms will develop late Monday into Tuesday morning.  Take a look.

Precip Tuesday AM

We would have showers and a few thunderstorms from Texas, Oklahoma, southern KS and into central MO.  As the storm system passes through the snow would get going.

Tuesday evening precip

So we would see heavy snow with several inches across north central KS, Nebraska and into Iowa.  Now remember, I wouldn’t be surprised if this system track a little farther south which would take the snow a little farther south.  So this is something we want to watch, but I think if you live in Oklahoma, Arkansas, SE KS, SW MO and up to central MO, this is mainly a rain maker.

Much colder temperatures work in for the rest of next week behind this system.  We do need to watch a system over Super Bowl weekend IF it can get enough moisture to work with.  The following week will also have two systems that could be wintry weather.  It is going to get active and a lot to talk about over the next several weeks!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Saturday.

February 7th-13th:  Slight chances for snow on Sunday with another system working in on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will give us rain and snow chances.  Stay cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances again on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday Jan 21st Blog: Waves of wintry weather continue, but for how long?

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Good Thursday afternoon.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  I am getting a little work done and a few things done around the house before I shoot off to work.  I do need to run and get an oil change on the SUV that I keep forgetting to do.  I am glad I just reminded myself in that last sentence, lets see if I remember.  Well here in the central US we have had rounds of freezing drizzle, sleet and snow over the past 3 days.  Some area in KS have had 6-8″ of snow.  In SW MO, we have had a decent amount of freezing drizzle and then a round of sleet last night that made the roads a little slick this morning.  Freezing drizzle will continue lightly today and this evening for most of KS and MO.  This is all caused by and upper level wave that is now weakening very quickly.  Lets take a look.

500 today

You can see in the central US to L’s.  The top one has been causing our crazy weather the past couple of days.  However, it is about done because the bottom L is now taking off.  The bottom L is dominant and it will become the mother L.  It will roll through the SE US and up the eastern states and become a huge storm system.  For the rest of today, freezing drizzle will continue across KS and MO with shower and thunderstorms for SE OK and south AR.  As this southern wave gets stronger, snow will develop in central AR.

Precip this evening

This will become a powerhouse system over the next couple of days.

500 Saturday

Here is a look at Saturday morning with the system now working east.  Lets see how this fits the Heady Pattern, we have seen this before of course.  Lets go back one cycle to December 2nd.

December 2nd

You can see this same system, just a little farther north due to the Jet stream being a little weaker.  So we know in about March this will be the position of the wave once again.  So by Saturday, look at the snow it will be producing.

Precip Saturday

If you aren’t a snow lover, at least this is heading away from the central plains.  If you are a snow lover than this stinks.  Our next bigger system in the Heady Pattern is right at the end of the month.  Lets jump ahead.

240 hour 500

 

This is January 31st and the return of one of the flooding rain storms.  With being in the colder part of the winter, maybe we can get a winter storm out of this, we will see.  This is the storm we saw on December 12th.

December 12th

 

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

January 24th-30th:  Cool again most of the week with chances for rain chances on Monday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week with mild temperatures working in for the weekend.

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.  Cold and dry for the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday Midday Blog Jan 19th: Couple wintry weather chances!

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I hope you are having a great day so far!  I want to quickly push out a blog before I head to a DR appointment.  We have storm system working through the central plains today with some wintry weather. This is a fairly weak wave, but enough to drop a few inches of snow in a lot of spots.  Light snow will continue to develop across MO this afternoon.  South of I-44, will be mixed with freezing drizzle and sleet at times.  We will see showers farther south into OK and AR.  Here is a map of this evening.

This Evening

I think the heaviest snow will track from just east of KC through the St. Louis metro where 2-5″ could fall.  Also in SE MO, areas near West Plains could pick up several inches of snow later tonight.  For the Joplin metro, I expect most areas to be around an inch at this time.  This system will work out of here later tonight and we will watch the second one build in late Wednesday.

Light rain showers and a wintry mix will develop on Wednesday night and into Thursday.  However, this system actually will get organized right on top of us.  So any showers or snow on Thursday looks to be light.

Thursday 500

If this wave can organize a little quicker, we could see a nice band of snow across the region on Thursday.

Thursday precip

As of right now, it looks disorganized, but needs to be watched.  This system becomes a power house system as it pushes east up the eastern states.

Friday precip

 

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

January 24th-30th:  Cool again most of the week with chances for rain or snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week with mild temperatures working in for the weekend.

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.  Cold and dry for the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

Sunday Morning Blog Jan 17th: Will we ever have a big snow? Lets look at the Heady Pattern

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Good Sunday morning.  I hope that you have had a great weekend so far.  I did some stuff around the house on Saturday, and then went to my sons basketball game.  For a solid 3.5 hours I stood and glared at the TV as I tried to figure out what was going on with the Chiefs game.  Plus on top of that I have to deal, very nicely deal but deal with a Boston native in my house.

Stacey

If you know me I am a die-hard Chiefs fan.  I am the guy who yells and screams at the TV because I actually think the team can hear me.  On top of that, I think they will listen to what I have to say.  So it has been a rough evening!  All I am going to say is I am very proud of my Chiefs season and leave it at that.  So we went to a movie to get me out of the house, lol.

Well the weather is much colder this weekend but it isn’t awful.  We have many waves that are going to roll through over the next week or so but they are mainly weak.  We are in the weaker part of the Heady Pattern.  Remember we have already gone through 4 cycles and two full cycles with this pattern.  The pattern set up the 3rd week of September but the cycle started around August 1st.  With all of my extensive research over the past few years, I have found that the new cycles for the patterns will start from late April through August of each year.  It just depends on how that year sets up.  I can already tell that the new cycle of 2016 will set up earlier than August 1st like it did in 2015.  So lets look and see what is going on.  We have another front that is dropping through today that could give us some snow showers later today.  However, the bigger news will be a shot of colder air once again.  Take a look at later tonight.  Look at all of the cold air across the central plains.

Sunday surface

Here is the front rolling through, look at the cold air.

Monday AM Temps

Now we do have a weak wave rolling through on Tuesday and Tuesday night that could give us a few snow showers.

Tuesday night precip

After that, another wave digs in on Thursday.

thursday 500

As of right now, this wave looks to mainly drive south of the area into NE AR.  We need to watch it to see where and if it can produce a batch of snow.

thursday precip

So these are the things we need to watch this week.  But why not look a little farther down the road.  I did say we are in the weaker part of the pattern, so when does that end?  So lets go to next Tuesday.

Next Tuesday 500

You can see another system dipping south of the region, but again a weak on.  This falls in line with where we were on December 6th in the Heady Pattern.

December 6th

So we will continue to have weak to moderate waves even next week.  So lets jump out even farther.  Lets go to February 2nd.  If we line this up with the pattern this would be December 13th.  So lets pull a map from December 13th.

December 13th

Ok, this looks more like it.  So we have to wait a couple weeks.  We don’t have the potential for a big system for a couple of weeks.  At that time we get back into the active strong part of the pattern where we see stronger systems rolling through.  That will be our shot for a big winter storm across the central and southern plains.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Cool temperatures stick around with some rain and snow chances late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Another wave works in on Thursday with additional rain and snow chances.

January 24th-30th:  Cool again most of the week with chances for rain or snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week with mild temperatures working in for the weekend.

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.  Cold and dry for the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday Morning Blog: Colder air working back in. Many systems lining up. Latest Heady Pattern Update

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Well, I was hoping to NOT be writing this blog as I would be 1.5 Billion dollars richer right now.  However, that didn’t happen.  They say your odds are around being struck by lightning or even a little less.  Well guess what?  I was struck by lightning when I was 12, so winning 1.5 Billion should be a piece of cake, right?  Well, I guess not, I didn’t win like all of you.  Oh well, life goes on, lol.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine is going pretty good.  You will hear me talk about this for the next two days but I am getting very worried about my Chiefs.  I actually think they can going into New England and win.  However, these are the Super Bowl Champs and they have Tom Brady with all of this playoff experience.  Plus my better half (Stacey) is from Boston and has been trash talking me for the past few days.  She is going to get the couch here real soon!  Well lets see how it goes.  Hey the weather has been great the past couple of days with warmer temperatures.  We will see another great day today with highs in the 50s to 60s depending on where you live.  However, we will see a series of waves starting tonight that will last for the next couple of weeks.  Lets take a look and I will break it down for you.

Thursday Night

We will see a weak wave working through tonight that will give us a few showers across the region.  Also this is going to drag the colder temperatures back south for the weekend.

Saturday

A second wave dives south across the southern plains on Saturday as I am stressing over the Chiefs.

Tuesday

A third wave kicks in on Tuesday with some light snow showers.  However, this doesn’t look like a big deal at this time.

Thursday 500

A stronger wave kicks out next Thursday.  This is one we need to watch across the central plains.  So lets go back in time to the 3rd cycle in the Heady Pattern and see where this fits.  Here is December 1st.

December 1st

Here was the same system in December.  Now it was a strong cut-off low and it didn’t have much cold air.  This time around it should have more cold air which will give us higher chances for wintry weather.  This is right on target with the Heady Pattern as we are in the 4th cycle of this Pattern.  Lets look at the surface.

Thursday precip

This will be something we want to watch over the next week or so.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Cool with rain and snow chances increasing on Tuesday and Wednesday.  A stronger system works in on Thursday with rain and snow, turning cooler for the weekend.

January 24th-30th:  Cool again most of the week with chances for rain or snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week with mild temperatures working in for the weekend.

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.  Cold and dry for the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

Monday Night Blog: Right on track with the pattern. What is coming down the road?

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Good Monday night!  I hope you had a great weekend and the work week has started off great!  I had a pretty good weekend and Monday well is Monday so far.  I am feeling pretty good about my Chiefs winning huge in Houston on Saturday.  However, the worry feeling is slowing sinking in about this coming Saturday at the Patriots.  The Super Bowl Champs are healthy now and we have to go into Gillette which I am not happy about.  Plus our star wide receiver Maclin most likely is out of the game.  It doesn’t help that my better half Stacey is from Boston and the trash talking has begun.  So lets see how I feel in a couple of days.

Temperatures across the central plain will be up and down over the next few days.  We do have a wave rolling through right now that will cool us down for Tuesday.  Check out the upper levels on Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

Just so you can see where we are in the pattern, this is the same wave we had back on November 21st.

November 21st

I am a little upset with the pattern or how the pattern will react over the next week or two.  It will fit how late November and early December fell, however it will also try to act a little more like two cycles ago back in early October.  Because of that, we just aren’t going to see as powerful systems rolling through, but the same systems will work through right when they are suppose to.  This means the version we saw in late November and early December will like return in Late February and early March.  Temperatures will warm up the rest of the week after Tuesday until the next wave on Friday.

Friday 500

Friday’s wave will give us some rain, but maybe some snow on the backside as it passes through.

Friday evening precip

Another system will try to form next Monday and Tuesday.  This all depends on the southern wave and will it kick out strong enough.

Next Monday 500

If this southern wave can kick out strong enough, this should produce some snow across the southern plains.

Next Monday precip

So we still have a lot to watch over the next several days.  Here is your updated long range forecast below.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Temperatures slowly warming up with rain and possibly some snow chances on Friday.  Temperatures turning much colder again for the weekend.

January 17th-23rd: A cold start to the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying cool through the week with rain chances returning for Thursday and Friday.

January 24th-30th:  Cool again most of the week with chances for rain or snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Cool and dry the rest of the week with mild temperatures working in for the weekend.

January 31st-February 6th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.  Cold and dry for the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for rain on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooling down the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

 

Wednesday Jan. 6th Blog: Still numerous waves and our time will come.

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I hope you have had a great start to the new year and great week back at work or school as the schedule is back to normal.  I can’t believe the holidays are gone.  You have this massive build up and then boom, they are gone.  Every year this happens, and each year gets faster.  I am going to blink and it will be summer and blink again and Christmas trees will be up again!

Well most of us have finally had some taste of winter with some snow and cooler temperatures the past couple of weeks.  If you read this blog you know I talk about the AO.  Without going into it, lets just say if it is negative we see colder temperatures.  If it is positive we have warmer temperatures.  October, November and December was positive AO.  This is why the central plains had so much rain.  However, we have dipped into the negative.

AO

This is why we are colder and will stay colder the next few weeks.  Look at the top graph, you can see I circled the positives the past few months and now we are negative.  However, we aren’t in the best part of the Heady Pattern to be negative to have big snows, lol.  So lets see how it plays out.  For the rest of this week we have weak waves rolling through.  Lets look at the wave for the next few days.

Wednesday 500

I circled the three waves that are kicking out.  However, none of them are very strong.  Wave one is producing a few showers and light wintry weather.  Wave two will produce mainly rain over the next few days.  Wave three will produce rain and snow over the weekend.  Wave one is passing by so lets focus on wave two.  Showers will increase tonight and Thursday morning.

Precip Thursday AM

Showers will stick around until Friday morning, then most of the showers will exit the central plains.  On Saturday, wave number 3 will work in.

Saturday 500

You can see the low working through the area.  Lets go back about 49 days in the Heady Pattern.

November 21st

Here is this same system, just a hair farther north due to the Jet being a little weaker.  Remember we are in cycle 4 now.  The cycle started roughly around August 1st in 2015, so we have seen a version of this system now 3 times.  So what can we expect at the surface?

Saturday precip

Depending on how much moisture we can see kicking back into this system, I think mainly rain south of the KS and MO state lines.  North of there should see rain to snow.  This is something we want to watch closely the next few days.

Do you remember the wonderful Thanksgiving storm system with very heavy rains and a pretty good ice storm across KS, well it is returning next week.  The AO being negative will affect the flow a bit but a form of the system will return.  The models are just now starting to pick up on it.  It won’t be as powerful this time around, but watch out next time it comes around.  Lets jump out to next Thursday.

Next Thursday

I tried to mark the Jet Stream flow for you in purple with our big ridge out across the west coast.  You can see the waves developing across the SW US.  So lets go back to Black Friday.

Nov. 27th

Very similar and something we want to watch.  If we can get enough energy to kick down this time it will be something to really watch.  Also of course right on schedule.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the week:  Mainly showers and cool over the next few days.  Rain and snow mix on Saturday.  Turning much colder for the weekend.

January 10th-16th:  A very cold start to the week with mainly dry conditions the first half of the week.  Rain and snow chances increase for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

January 17th-23rd: Staying cold most of the week with rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Another system will work in with rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 24th-30th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by mid week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  We could see some rain and snow on Wednesday if enough cold air can work back in.  Cooler the rest of the week with rain and snow chances returning for Friday and Saturday.

January 31st-February 6th:  This will mainly be a cool with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Warming up a bit as we head into the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday and Saturday.

February 14th-20th:  Rain and snow chances return for Monday and Tuesday.  Also we will see cool temperatures through the middle of the week before we warm up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances will return for the weekend.

Friday Night Jan. 1st: It is calm FOR NOW!

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Good Friday night!  I hope you have had a great New Year.  Mine has been pretty good, just a normal day for me.  I had to work NYE and today, so I didn’t do anything super excited.  I did play a mean game of Sorry with the family about midnight last night, lol.  My son was a little upset he didn’t win, but he has to learn the dad has to win as well for my self esteem.  At least we are drying out after all of the crazy flooding this past weekend.  We have had pretty calm weather across the region over the past few days.  We are actually going to stay calm for the next several days.  Let me show you why.

Saturday 500

Look at our upper level map above.  We have a split flow with our Jet Stream.  Our main Jet is way up north in Canada and dipping south into the Great Lakes.  Our second but building Jet is across the southern US.  This creates a ridge of high pressures across the western US which means we stay calm until this breaks down.  However, it will break down by the middle of next week.

Wednesday 500

By late next week, the southern Jet becomes the main Jet Stream.  You can see storm systems start to dive southeast along the Jet and kick out into the central plains.  This is interesting, this of course fits into the Heady Pattern, but it is a combination of the past two cycles.  Take a look at one cycle ago.

November 19th

On November 19th, we have a very strong Jet Steam with fast moving waves.  However, two cycles ago it was more of a mess like it is now.

October 2nd

On October 2nd, it was a disorganized mess but the same cycle.  So this time around it is a mix of the two.  Our first wave will be a rain maker next Wednesday and Thursday.  However, a second wave rolls in with some rain and possible snow on Friday and Saturday.

Next Weekend precip

The waves will continue the following week.  We should be fairly active until about January 21st or so, then we will hit a little lull in the pattern.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Cool temperatures and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Rain chances increase Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  We could see a rain/snow mix or all snow by Saturday with a second wave working through.

January 10th-16th:  A cold start to the week with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Another storm system moves in for the weekend with rain and snow chances.

January 17th-23rd: Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  Staying cold most of the week with another system working in with rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 24th-30th:  A cool start to the week but warming up quickly.  Rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday as our next system works through.  Cooler the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 31st-February 6th:  This will mainly be a cool with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Warming up a bit as we head into the weekend.

February 7th-13th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday and Saturday.

February 14th-20th:  Rain and snow chances return for Monday and Tuesday.  Also we will see cool temperatures through the middle of the week before we warm up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances will return for the weekend.