Archive: Feb 2016

Wednesday afternoon Feb. 24th: Snow just misses the central plains! Still some chances.

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Good late afternoon!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good.  I am trying to get some work done before I get ready for the 5 and 6.  I got my taxes done before I came to work, that was depressing, but that afternoon is getting better, lol.  I was looking over the snowfall records here over the past 30 minutes and a ton of areas in KS, MO, AR and OK are pressing record lows.  In Joplin, the record low for snow in a season is 2.5″.  So far we are sitting at a whopping 2″, lol.  In the 2011-2012 winter we had 2.8″ which was close to the record snow.  We had the storm system yesterday that just missed the area that could have given us some snow but of course it didn’t.  Look at the snowfall from this past system.

snowfall

I almost find the amusing now, but very sad.  If we don’t get a system to come together very quickly we are in serious trouble of setting the record low.  So lets look at the next week for the central plains.  Our next wave rolls in on Sunday.

Sunday 500

This is a little weaker version of the system that rolled through on January 9th.  However, when it did roll through on January 9th, it didn’t do much for us.

January 9th

Again, I don’t expect much.  I think we will see a few showers on Sunday afternoon with cooler temperatures working in late in the day.  It is the next system that should have a little more of a punch.  Lets take a look.

Wednesday 500

I put a circle around this wave because last time this came through 49 days ago it was a little disorganized and split into two different waves.

Jan. 13th

However, if you read my blogs much, with the heady pattern every other cycles like to mirror each other a little bit more.  So if we went back two cycles ago this would be our Thanksgiving day storm.  If you remember that, it was a big rain maker with some flooding rains and a pretty big ice and snow maker from KC to Wichita.  This time around it should behave again more like it did in November and not like in early January.  As of right now it looks like rain will develop across the central plains late Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Snow will develop across western KS and start to spread east by Wednesday morning.  Here is a projected look at Wednesday.

Wednesday precip

If we can get the cold air, this could give us snow in the areas that haven’t seen much this winter.  Lets see how this sets up over the next several days.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

This week:  After this system passes by, cooler with partly sunny skies.  However, temperatures should warm up nicely for the weekend.

Next Week:  A few showers and turning cooler on Sunday.  Our next system with showers works in on Tuesday and Tuesday night.  Rain and snow chances on Wednesday into Thursday morning. Slight chances for rain will return on Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  Mild temperatures with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  With cooler temperatures working in we could see a rain snow mix on Thursday.  Cooler, but it should be dry the rest of the week.

March 13th-19th:  Cool with showers to start the week with mild temperatures the second half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances by the weekend with some strong to possibly severe for the weekend.

March 20th-26th:  Mild with thunderstorms on Sunday to start the week.  A second system rolls in on Tuesday with thunderstorms that could be severe with showers sticking around Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler but it should be dry heading into the weekend.

March 27th-April 2nd:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorm chances return for Wednesday and then again Friday and Saturday.  Some could be strong to severe by the weekend.

April 3rd-9th:  Showers and cool to start the week on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  The rest of the week will be dry but a little cooler.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Monday night Feb 22nd/23rd Blog: Southern Plains storm and cooler week.

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Good Monday night!  I hope you had a great weekend and start to the work week.  I had a great weekend as Stacey, my son and I went to Kansas City to see my mom and do a few things around the city.  Being born and raised there, I love to go back as much as possible and hang out.  Stacey and I went out to dinner with my mentor Bryan Busby (Chief Meteorologist KMBC-TV in Kansas City) and had a great time catching up.  I met Bryan when I was 8 years old and went down to the TV station and bugged him my entire childhood.

Doug and Bryan

Once we got back home, Christian and I worked on hitting the ball.  He is getting much better and when he connect he is hitting with a little power this year.  We have to decide if he is going to play another year of T-Ball or machine pitch.

At least the weather has been great with fantastic temperatures.  However, it will be a much cooler week than what we had last week.  We also have a storm system working through the southern plains.  Lets take a look.

500 Tuesday

Look at the strong upper level low right across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on Tuesday.  This low really tightens up and gets stronger as it pushes east into Wednesday.  However, this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  Remember, we have been consistently in a 49 day cycle since roughly the 3rd week of July.  We are in the 5th cycle of this current cycle length.  Remember this isn’t just here in the central US.  This is everywhere in the US, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, across the pond and wherever you want to go in the northern hemisphere.  In the southern hemisphere we also have the Heady Pattern going on down under.  However, it is at a different cycle length this year as they are sitting at a little longer length of a cycle.  I never post the extensive research I have done on this pattern.  I have great data and even a model that I have developed over the past few years.  However, you guys want to know what is going to happen, not pages of mathematical equations and charts.  But you can see where this storm fits in the pattern.  Remember, every other cycle like to mirror each other a little more in the winter months.  So lets go back to November 18th.

November 18th

You can see this exact same system, just a little farther north due to seasonal changes in the Jet Stream.  Lets look at what to expect.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the central and southern plains.  Showers by Tuesday morning with heavy rains in southern Oklahoma and Texas.

Tuesday pm precip

Joplin north will be just light showers.  South of Joplin with be moderate rain and then thunderstorms as you work farther south.  As the colder air works in aloft (but just above the surface) rain will mix and change over to a very heavy wet snow.  This will be across SW MO, northern Arkansas and eastern OK.  Lets move to Tuesday night.

Tuesday night precip

You can see how the blue is mixing in on the map.  However, I think snow will become dominant on the backside of the storm system.  For the Joplin metro, showers most of the day.  A little rain/snow mix during the evening and overnight hours.  I think most of the snow will stay just east of the viewing area.  We just need to watch how fast and the colder air aloft work in, but as of right now it doesn’t look like a big deal.

Wednesday morning precip

By Wednesday morning, this system shifts into the Ohio River Valley and takes the snow with it.  It should leave a stipe of wet slushy snow from east central OK, NW AR, south central MO, eastern MO of 1-4″.  There could be a few isolated higher amounts in that band.

Temperatures will be much cooler this week compared to last week, but mainly dry through the week.  Our next wave works in with a fast moving system on Sunday that could give us some showers across the region.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

This week:  After this system passes by, cooler with partly sunny skies.  However, temperatures should warm up nicely for the weekend.

Next Week:  Showers on Sunday with cooler temperatures working in on Monday.  Cooler temperatures stick around most of the week with rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with our next system.  Warmer temperatures for the weekend with rain chances for Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  A cool start to the week with rain and possibly some snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Cooler and dry for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures warm for Saturday with rain chances.

March 13th-19th:  We cool right back down with showers on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures return the rest of the week with severe thunderstorms possible by the weekend.

March 20th-26th:  Thunderstorms, possibly severe on Sunday with mild temperatures.  Another system with thunderstorms that could be severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures with showers for Wednesday and Thursday.  We should be dry the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Friday night Feb. 19th: Warm temperatures, but changes moving in. Plus and update on the Long range forecast and what is coming

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Good Friday evening!  I hope you have had a great week.  Mine has been pretty good, but very busy.  I have been doing a ton of work and doctor appointments with my migraines.  I did a lot of cleaning around the house before work today and I have figured out I don’t like clean much.  I feel satisfied after it is done, but I really don’t like doing it, lol.  At least the temperatures will stay nice tomorrow and I can get outside and enjoy it.  We are going to see the clouds and a few showers, but I can get outside and enjoy it.  So are you ready for spring?  Most of us haven’t had a winter.  In Joplin we are sitting at 2″ for the winter.  2.5″ is the lowest amount Joplin has ever had since records have been recorded with snow back in the 1940s.  We did have 2.8″ in the 2001-2012 winter, but we are super low this year.  So would you like to see a big snow or just skip it and move right into spring?  To be honest, I wouldn’t mind having a good snow before spring hits.  I love snow and I have seen very little of it this winter.

So lets look at the Heady Pattern.  The pattern sets up each and every year from September 21st-September 28th.  In this pattern we have a recurring cycle which can range anywhere from about 42-65 days long.  This year we are sitting on about 49 days long.  Now the cycle DOESN’T set up when the pattern sets.  I have proven this over the past several years.  I have a very detailed method of finding out when the cycle will set-up each year which I know you don’t want to hear about.  The new cycle can set up as early as late April to early May and as late the beginning of August.  This years cycle started in early July.  I have a pretty good idea when the next cycle will set-up and what the cycle length will be give or take 3 days.  However, I don’t want to give that information out just yet as I have a few readers that will take credit to it, lol.  So I am going to keep it to myself for now.

So lets look at what is going on right now.  The central plains has had very mild temperatures with near record highs across the region over the past few days.  Also we have had very windy days across most of the central plains.  A weak wave is working through the area this weekend.

Precip Saturday

This will produce some showers Saturday afternoon, night and Sunday morning.  The best chances for scattered showers will be eastern KS, eastern OK, central and eastern TX, AR and MO.  As this wave works through it will cool our temperatures back down to where we should be for this time of the year on Sunday and Monday.  However, temperatures look great on Saturday.

Temps Saturday

You can see the warmer temperatures surging north in Nebraska, Iowa and even through the Ohio River Valley.  The next wave for the central plains is on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is a tricky little guy as we need to see how much moisture we can get, where is he going to track and how strong will he be.  Well each cycle likes to mirror every other cycle a little bit more, so lets look at two cycles go with this one.  So here is next Tuesday night.

Tuesday night 500

If this storm can wrap up like this, it could be a strong system.  If it stays as an open wave, it will be a weaker system.  That is something we need to watch.  Lets go back to November, 18th.

Wednesday Nov. 18th

Here is the exact same system two cycles ago.  This is 99 days ago which is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  You can see this same system but a little farther north as it should have been when the Jet Stream was a little weaker.  So what could this produce?  I think this will produce rain and snow across the central plains, lets look at Tuesday night.

Tuesday evening precip

Lets go into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday morning precip

If this system can get enough moisture and doesn’t track as an open wave, then it should have a band of snow on the backside of the system.  It would work out by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday PM precip

So this is something we want to watch over the next few days and see if this comes together or if it doesn’t.  However, something to watch.  Check out the updated long range forecast below.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next week:  Near average temperatures with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances returning for the weekend.

February 28th-March 5th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool through the middle of the week with mild temperatures working in  by the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  Cool with rain chances on Sunday, then just slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  Mild most of the week with some showers on Monday.  The rest of the week should be dry until thunderstorms on Saturday.

March 20th-26th:  Thunderstorms to start the week for the weekend.  Another system rolls in on Tuesday with thunderstorms that could be severe.  Cooler with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Tuesday PM Blog Feb 16th: Warming up!

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Good afternoon!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine is going pretty good, just staying busy.  I am actually running up to KC this afternoon as I am heading to my migraine doctor this afternoon.  Well one of my doctors at least.  I thought I would do a quick blog update before I hit the road.  At least the weather has been pretty good that past couple of days.  Most of us are still in a lack of winter weather.  Central KS, Western KS, Nebraska and Iowa have had anywhere from 20-30″ of snow this winter.  Then there has been a sharp cut-off in snowfall just south of that.  I knew we would have a lot of storm systems this winter with 75% of them being rain makers.  However, I was hoping that a few of them could produce some snow for us.  So far, this hasn’t worked out for most of us.  We are running out of time quickly.  Wichita, KC, Joplin, Tulsa, NWA are all under 5″ of snow for the winter season.  Joplin is at 2″ and the record low for a season is 2.5″.  I don’t even see a chance right now for at least a week and not a chance for a bigger system until the end of the month.  Let me also point out the chance at the end of the month may be rain.  So lets see what is going on.  We actually have nice weather for the rest of the week.  It will be windy but a nice week with a warm-up moving in.

Wednesday 500

Here is our upper level map for tomorrow.  You can see the huge ridge over the central US.  We have storm systems on each coasts.  This is very similar to what we had two cycles ago back on November 8th.

Nov 8th

This allows us to really warm-up.  Most of us will be well into the 70s on Thursday and Friday.  We will cool down a bit over the second half of the weekend and early next week with a few showers as a cold front pushes through.

Sunday precip

You can see the front drops through on Sunday with a few scattered showers.  Lets look at the upper levels.

Sunday 500

You can see how the ridge is gone in the central US.  This fits just like what we had one cycle ago on January 1st.

Jan 1st

So the first half of next week will be cooler than this week.  We will warm up a bit late next week before our system works in late next week into next weekend.  Besides that, we aren’t going to see a lot of weather action.  This will change, once we get into March, April and May we will see this weaker winter systems really producing.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next week:  A cooler start to the week with temperatures warming up for the second half of the week.  Rain chances increase for Friday and Saturday.

February 29th-March 5th:  Colder with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.  Temperatures will warm up a bit just in time for the weekend with rain chances returning.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Thursday Feb. 11th Blog: Active weather coming!

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Good Thursday morning, well I think.  I am just glad it is Thursday.  Before I get any getting old jokes, I just want to say I have been working Sunday’s the past several weeks so my days are a little off.  I missed a doctors appointment on Wednesday for my hand (I have really bad bone spurs, I think) because I was looking at the wrong day in my calendar.  Then I almost took my dog to the vet which is actually today.  I actually called the line for a conference call which is also today.  OH MY, what is wrong with me.  I need some serious sleep or something.  Let the old 37 year old jokes fly!!!!!!

Well the weather is actually a little boring in my standards which mean great for most people.  Let me show you what is going on.

Thursday 500

We are in a NW flow, meaning the jet stream out of the NW.  This gives us weak fast moving little systems.  However, we can’t get a big system in this flow.  It just gives us swinging temperatures like we have seen.  We will start to pull out of this as we work into the weekend.  Our next system will dig into the central plains.

500 Sunday

You can see how the Jet Stream digs a little bit more to the SW with a few waves working through.  This is actually the same system we had on Christmas.  However, look at Christmas.

December 25th

Can you see how much harder this system dug into the SW over Christmas.  Because it dug into the SW and grabbed so much gulf moisture we had flooding rains across the region.  This isn’t going to happen this time around.  We are sitting around a 51 day cycle if you do the math.  I can get into a big explanation why, but I don’t think you want to hear it, lol.  It has to do with what happened in 3 cycles ago in the 3rd week of September.  Lets push that aside, as the system after this will really start digging into the SW US.  So what can we expect?

Sunday precip

This will produce some light snow on Sunday across the central and northern plains.  Once you work a little farther south toward the I-44 corridor we could see a light freezing rain.  This shouldn’t be a big deal.  We do need to watch the back wave that kicks out on Monday.

Monday precip

If we can get enough cold air south on Sunday, this could produce some wintry weather in the southern plains on Monday.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

February 14th-20th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through the middle of the week with rain and mild temperatures increasing fro Thursday and Friday.  Lets see if we can get any cold air in here for wintry weather by the weekend.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday as a weak system passes by.  Temperatures moderate for the rest of the week with another big system moving in with rain increasing for Friday and Saturday.  Again, lets see if we can get any colder air working in for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Tuesday Feb. 9th Blog: Calm boring weather!! How long will this last? It will get active

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I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good.  I went out of town for the weekend to go see my dad.  I don’t get to see him much but wanted to go see how he was doing. Here is a nice picture of three generations.

Dad

I had to work on Sunday, but still got to at least check in on the massive defensive Super Bowl.  I am the first to say I am not a Broncos Fan.  However, I am very proud of Peyton that he can ride off in the sunset as one of the best of all-time as a winner.   You can’t ask for a better ending than that to his amazing years in the NFL.

Now I am looking at what is going to hit us down the road.  We are in this awful NW flow.

500 today

When I say NW flow, all of the energy is diving out of Canada which brings in the colder temperatures.  On top of that we can’t get any systems in here until this breaks down.  We will see a weak wave drop in from the NW on Wednesday that will affect the northern plains.  Let me show you.

Wednesday Wave

This will produce snow from the Dakota’s through Iowa into central and eastern MO.  This will stay northeast of the Joplin metro but it will drop 1-3″ of snow in that line.

snowfall

We will have a warming trend toward the weekend with our next system working in on Sunday and Monday.  This is right in line with the Heady Pattern.  In fact this is the Christmas storm that produced that major flooding that we had across most of the central US that week.  Here is the difference this time around.  Due to the flow we are in now, we are going to have a hard time getting much moisture into this system.  So it will be a weaker version of this system like we had in early November and in late September.

Sunday 500

You can see this wave working through the central plains on Sunday.  Lets look at the surface.

Sunday precip

As of right now, this looks like light snow from central KS/MO points north with rain south of that.  This is something we will watch closely.  We are going to get into be wet storms again until the 18-20th.  This would be the December 31st storms and November 10th storm in the Heady Pattern.  This will be the next big system that will have a lot of moisture.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

February 14th-20th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through the middle of the week with rain and mild temperatures increasing fro Thursday and Friday.  Lets see if we can get any cold air in here for wintry weather by the weekend.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday as a weak system passes by.  Temperatures moderate for the rest of the week with another big system moving in with rain increasing for Friday and Saturday.  Again, lets see if we can get any colder air working in for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Thursday Evening Feb. 4th Blog: Lack of snow! What is going on?

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Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have had a great work week so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good so far.  I haven’t felt the best the past couple of days, but I am making it.  Hey the work week is almost over.  I have a lot of work to do, but I wish I was busy at work with a big snowstorm!  We have had a lack of winter weather.  Here in the Joplin area, we have had 3 very tiny little snows and a little ice event, that is it!  What is crazy is we have had big storm systems that have rolled through with heavy rains or a snow has just missed the area.  In SW MO, SE KS, NE OK and NW AR, it is a lot harder to have a big snow than what people think.  You have to be in a great pattern with upper level lows tracking to our south.  At the same time we have to have cold air in place.  We have had warm air when system have rolled through with upper level lows tracking over us or just north of us.  We are actually in a pretty active pattern, which means we will see decent amounts of thunderstorms this spring.  If we look at where the storms are tracking, I see many chances for severe weather this spring.  However, for winter weather it isn’t the best set-up.  Because we don’t have much cold air this winter, I don’t think we have much of a shot past the month of February.  It will become much harder to get a decent snow once we get into March.  So if we focus on this month, here is what I see.  Decent storm systems around the 14th, 18th and 19th, then a couple systems from the 26th-1st of March.  After that is gets much hard to get snow.  We do have a weak wave that drops down on Friday.

Friday 500

You can see the brighter colors in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.  However, there is no moisture to work with.  Look at the precip produced.

Precip Friday

There may be some sprinkles or a shower, maybe a few flurries on Friday night.  That is about it.  We will have a couple of cold fronts that shift through from Sunday through Tuesday.  This will bring down the cold Canadian air.

500 Monday

You can see the energy diving south across the eastern half of the country on Monday.  Look at the cold air it pulls south.

850 Monday

Thankfully the cold air will be short lived and shifts east pretty quickly.  By late in the week we will have a great warm-up.

850 late next week

Our system moving in on the 14th and 15th, we need to see if it will be closer to the Christmas version or the early November version.  My bet is the early November version where it was a little weaker and faster moving.  We will talk more about it next time.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

February 7th-13th:  Much colder air dives south early in the week.  At least we warm right back up late in the week and we stay dry most of the week.

February 14th-20th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Stay cool most of the week with rain and snow chances returning on Thursday and Friday with our next system.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.

Monday night Feb 1st: Big central plains system

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I hope you had a great weekend and your Monday started off good.  Mine has been pretty good, I just ran all over the place today trying to get stuff done before work.  I have been sitting here over the past couple hours looking through the pattern and this storm system rolling through the area over the next couple of days.  It looks like all of the fantastic temperatures we have seen will be gone by Wednesday.  At least we had a nice little stretch of warmer temperatures for a while.  Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase across southern KS, northern OK and push east through the overnight hours tonight.  Some of these storms could be on the strong side, but should stay below severe limits.  Here is a look at thunderstorms late tonight working through.

Late tonight precip

I also put the blue line on for you so you can see where the rain snow line will be located.  North of that line will see near blizzard like conditions.  Thunderstorms that push through tonight will quickly push off toward the east during the morning hours on Tuesday.  Lets look at this big system.

Tuesday evening 500

You can see the main system working into the north central plains by Tuesday PM.  This is the same system that we saw back on December 14th in the pattern.

December 14th

Most of the southern plains will see sunshine Tuesday as the dryslot pushes into the area.  Temperatures still look good until the colder side of the storm works in Tuesday evening.

Tuesday Evening Precip

Look at the snow amounts this baby is going to produce.

snowfall

You can see the monster snowstorm raging on Tuesday evening.  As the colder air works south, snow showers will spread in Tuesday night for eastern KS and western MO.  Expect colder temperatures for the rest of the week.  Here is a look at lows Thursday morning.

Thursday AM temps

Everyone will be cooling back down.  Our next wave we need to watch is Sunday and Monday.

Sunday 500

Lets go back two cycles and look at this.

October 26th

In October, it was a weaker version but the same systems.  We need to see where the southern low tracks and if we can get any moisture.  This will be something to watch over the next few days.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

February 7th-13th:  Slight chances for snow on Sunday with another system working in on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will give us rain and snow chances.  Stay cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances again on Friday.

February 14th-20th:  Mild with rain on Valentine’s Day and Monday.  As cooler air works in we will see rain or snow chances for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Friday.

February 21st-28th:  A cold start to the week with slight chances for snow on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures for the second half of the week with rain chances for the weekend.

February 29th-March 5th:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then cold and dry the rest of the week.

March 6th-12th:  Warming back up with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain or snow chances for Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances for Thursday and Friday with cooler air briefly working in.

March 20th-26th:  Mild and mainly dry through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.