Archive: Mar 2016

March 30th Severe weather blog

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great Wednesday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, just plugging away at some work as usual.  Of course I have been glancing over today’s severe weather set-up for the central plains.  It is an interesting set-up, and something we want to watch.  This storm fall right in the pattern and actually all the way down to the micro-scale.  We are going to keep seeing this set-up through the spring with drylines setting up across central and eastern KS and OK.  This is our second one in a week and we will continue to see them over the next couple of months.  Lets look at today.

Early Afternoon

I put a red circle around the areas with a severe threat.  The orange circle are the areas with a little higher threat.  The higher threats will be St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Emporia, Chanute, Yates Center, Fredonia.  Also areas farther south from Dallas into SE OK and a good chunk of AR.  Scattered and I do mean scattered thunderstorms will pop-up over the next few hours across the region and push through during the afternoon hours.

3 pm storms

Here is a look at 3pm.  Scattered thunderstorms with mainly small hail through AR, OK, MO and KS during the afternoon hours.  Some clearing will take place ahead of the dryline (black dotted line) out west and storms will start going probably around 4pm.  These storms will race ENE across KS and OK.  Lets work through the evening hours.

5pm storms

Here is a look at 5 pm.  The storms now in eastern KS south into OK, could be strong to severe.  They should have strong winds with hail and possibly a few isolated tornadoes.  However, they will be scattered, they won’t be a line of storms.  They will continue to press NE.

7 pm storms

Let move to 7pm. The dryline/front now is pushing the state line of KS/MO.  Hail and wind is the primary threat with still a few isolated tornadoes possible.  However, again you can see these storms are scattered.  At this time the storms will start to quickly break up.

9 pm storms

Isolated storms by 9pm.  However, the severe threat starts to decrease and the storms start working east quickly.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Tuesday morning blog: Severe threat across the central plains!

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you have had a great start to the work week and a great holiday weekend.  We had a pretty good weekend.  My son of course got a few items for Easter and we did a few things over the weekend.  We tried painting eggs and hey he enjoyed it.  I thought it left a pretty good mess, but at least he had fun.

Christian

Temperatures warmed back up on Monday and will continue to warm today and Wednesday.  However, the winds will start to pick back up as well.  So lets turn to our next storm system that is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  Remember, we are right on a 49.5 day cycle this year.  The cycle will last a few more months before it takes a turn which will will get into here later.  So lets look at this next system.  Today looks great across the central plains.

Tuesday Temps

Temperatures look great on Wednesday as well.

Wednesday Temps

However, our next system pushes in fast on Wednesday.

Wednesday 500

You can see the swirl across NW KS, that is the center of the energy for the next wave on Wednesday.  This is coming out with perfect timing to give us a severe weather shot tomorrow afternoon.  However, when I look at the map above I see a positive tilt.  This means the system is leaning forward and not backward.  On the other hand we do have pretty good shear (wind changing with height) and moisture is already feeding back into the plain states.  One big key here is the surface winds will be out of the south or just a hair out of the SSE.  This usually points to a better shot for stronger supercells across the region.  Back to the other hand, we will be strong capped (lid on the atmosphere, keeping storms from firing up) which means we won’t have a widespread outbreak of storms.  So with that said, lets look at what the NAM model projects for Wednesday evening.

Wednesday precip

You can see the area of Low pressure across eastern Nebraska with a dry line stretching south into eastern KS.  The NAM model want thunderstorms to fire along the dry line during the evening hours.  So here is my take with everything mentioned above.  At this time, I think we will have SCATTERED strong to severe storms that will develop after 4 pm tomorrow from SE NB into NE KS and east central KS.  These will most likely become severe with severe thunderstorm warning with hail and gusty winds.  We also can’t rule out a few tornadoes.  This would affect areas from St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Topeka, Emporia to Ft. Scott.  As we work farther south into SE KS and NE OK, I expect isolated supercells.  Isolated means one here and one there.  These could go severe with mainly a hail threat as these will be more of an elevated threat.  A little father south in central OK, again we will see isolated supercells, but these will have more of a tornado threat due to the low level jet being stronger and some great upper level divergence.  All of these storms will plow east and become a line during the evening and start to fall apart becoming just a hail threat.  Of course as things evolve over the next 36 hours I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady #headypattern

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Thursday night Blog March 24th: More rain heading our way

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I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good, but definitely on the busy side.  I had the stomach flu last week and of course my son got it this week.  That is never fun for a kid on his spring break or a parent taking care of a kid!!!  Also last night was a busy night with thunderstorms across the region and back to the cold temperatures for us today.  Spring around here is wild as you never really have spring.  You seem to have summer one day and then back to winter the next.  So you get an average of what is called spring for a few months.  At least temperatures warm up a bit on Friday as most areas are back into the lower 60s.

Friday temperatures

Temperatures stay pretty good on Saturday even though scattered showers work back into the central plains for the morning hours.

Saturday AM precip

This is the first weaker wave.  The stronger wave will work in Saturday night and on Easter Sunday.  Lets take a look.

Saturday 500

I circled the wave dropping into the plain states.  You can see this same wave 50 days ago in our pattern.

Feb 5th

Here is a look at February 5th.  This will give us cold showers across the region on Sunday.

Sunday precip

Even across central KS, we could see a mix of snow and some light accumulations.  Temperatures will warm back up early next week with thunderstorms and possibly severe weather returning by the middle of next week.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Warming back up early in the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday that could be on the strong to severe side.  Left over cooler showers on Thursday.  Cooler but dry on Friday and Saturday.

April 3rd-9th: A mild start to the week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Another wave works in with thunderstorm chances again on Wednesday.  Warming up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances again on Friday.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Friday Night/Saturday AM Blog March 18th: Spring is almost here but it doesn’t feel like it. Plus our next severe weather chance

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Good Friday night!  I hope you had a great week and of course looking forward to the weekend.  I am always looking forward to the weekends.  I have so many things I need/want to get done this weekend I don’t even know where to start.  I just made a list and it was long, super long.  I know realistically I am not going to get half of the stuff done, but at least I have it written down and can start digging at it.  It is to bad the weather won’t be nicer like we have seen over the past several weekends.  I would really like to get outside and do several things.  However, temperatures are going to really struggle for everyone across the central plains.  Check out the temperatures for Saturday morning.

Sunday AM Temps

We have freeze warnings out for a lot of the central plains as the freezing line will dig into northern Texas.  During the day on Saturday, we will struggle to warm up.

Saturday PM Temps

High temps will only be in the upper 40s across KS and MO.  Only around 50 degrees in northern OK and AR.  Again Saturday night, the freezing line takes another dip south.

Sunday AM Temps

Now spring officially begins at 11:31pm on Saturday night.  It just isn’t going to feel like it over the weekend.  We do start to warm back up into the 60s and 70s on Monday and Tuesday ahead of our next storm system.  Lets take a look.

Wednesday 500

This is the upper level map for Wednesday.  You can see the storm system swinging out into the central plains.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern as we saw this exact same thing in the previous 5 cycles.  Lets look at the past two, here is February 2nd.

Feb 2nd

You can see this same system just like you can on December 13th.

Dec 13th

This should give us scattered showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday afternoon this time around.  As of right now this isn’t the best severe weather set-up but definitely needs to be watched.  Here is the surface map for Wednesday night.

Precip Wednesday

We should have scattered thunderstorms pop-up in the red circle.  I will watch this over the next few days and see how this shakes out.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Warming up early in the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down on Friday with temperatures moderating once again for Saturday.  Another system will roll in on Saturday with scattered thunderstorms working in.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A chilly start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures return for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling back down on Saturday.

April 3rd-9th: Mild with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures warm up late in the week with thunderstorms on Saturday.

April 10th-16th: Mild temperatures through the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday and then again on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be severe during the middle of the week.  Cooling down for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th: Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday. The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th: Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe. The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st: A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system. The rest of the week looks good.

Wednesday Morning Blog March 16th: More storm systems rolling in

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Good morning, I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but good.  I have been spending the past few days with Chad Crilley.  Chad is a major weather nut that lives in San Diego.  He contacted me back in the spring of 2011, and told me he wanted to come out and see some severe weather.  Chad was only 12 at the time and I was thinking sure, if he was really serious.  I talked to Chad’s mom over the next couple of months and we got it all set for Chad and his mother to fly to Joplin.  I looked at the pattern to figure out when we could possibly see some severe weather.  I chose May 22nd, 23rd and 24th.  Chad and his mother flew into Joplin airport about 2 hours prior to the Joplin tornado.  They had to take shelter in Applebee’s during the tornado on 32nd street.  Chad stayed with me at work over the next couple of days as we were obviously very busy.

I have stayed in touch with Chad and actually saw him and his family last summer when my family made a trip to San Diego.  Chad came back out and has stayed with me the past few days to job shadow as he is now a 17 year senior in high school.  Of course as he flew in on Sunday we had thunderstorms.  I took him up to KC yesterday to meet my mentor Bryan Busby and Gary Lezak.  Here is us with Bryan at KMBC channel 9.

Chad

At least the weather looks decent over the next few days.  Our next decent system across the region rolls in on Friday.

Friday precip

This should give most of KS, MO, OK and AR scattered showers Friday afternoon.  As the colder air works in, we can’t rule out a few snow showers Friday night.  However, the next bigger system is next Tuesday and Wednesday.  So lets look back at the Heady Pattern.  Remember we are roughly on a 50 day cycle.  So lets go back two cycles which is about 100 days.

Dec.14th

You can see the big system digging across the southern Rockies heading out into the plains.  So lets go back one cycle which is about 50 days ago.

Feburary 2nd

You can see on February 2nd, we had that same exact system.  So lets look at next Tuesday and Wednesday.  The models are trying and SHOULD produce that same system.

Tuesday night 500

 

You can see the data is trying to produce this same system.  This should be our next shot at thunderstorms and possibly some strong to severe storms.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Warming up early in the week with showers and thunderstorms possible Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances returning by Saturday.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A fairly mild week with thunderstorms chances with our next system on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe to start the week. Mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms sticking around into the middle of the week. Cooling down for the last few days of the week.

April 10th-16th: Mild temperatures through the week with a few waves working through. A few showers on Monday and a slight chance as well on Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances for Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th: Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday. The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th: Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe. The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st: A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system. The rest of the week looks good.

Thursday Evening March 10th Blog: Rain chances continue, but what about severe weather?

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I hope your Thursday is going great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad so far.  I am trying to get some work done and get my shows ready at the same time.  I didn’t get near the things that I wanted to get done at home today, but I always have tomorrow and the weekend is right around the corner.  The weather has been gloomy here the past few days.  We haven’t had much sun, but we did get a chance to dry out a bit today.  We have been dealing with this same system for the past several days.  This system isn’t done with us yet, it will still give us showers over the next few days.  Lets take a look at what is going on.

500 today

You can see the wonderful cut-off low spinning in northern Mexico.  Lets look at two cycles ago (100 days ago) in the Heady Pattern and you can also see the cut-off low.

Dec 1st

Here on December 1st, you can see the Jet Stream was well north in south Canada similar to now with the cut-off low across the central US.  If we go back 50 days (one cycle ago) we only got a small brief cut-off with a much stronger Jet Stream, but we had the same waves rolling through.

Jan 20th

The bottom line here is we are right on track with the pattern and this is going to affect us until we get a system to kick it out of here which will occur late in the weekend.  This means showers will be around on Friday as well.

Friday precip

As the cut-off on Friday starts lifting north, so to the showers once again.  These will be mainly showers with a few random thunderstorms, I am not expecting severe weather around here.  Much of the same on Saturday.

Saturday precip

And then finally the KICKER SYSTEM!

Saturday 500

here is late Saturday, the cut-off gets kicked out by the kicker system and finally gone!  Check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A mild start to the week with a slight chances for showers on Tuesday and Wednesday.   A  little cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for rain returning by Saturday.

March 20th-26th: A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  As an second wave works in, showers and thunderstorms possible on Wednesday and Thursday as well.  Cooler temperatures for the weekend.

March 27th-April 2nd: A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances working in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe to start the week. Mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms sticking around into the middle of the week. Cooling down for the last few days of the week.

April 10th-16th: Mild temperatures through the week with a few waves working through. A few showers on Monday and a slight chance as well on Wednesday. Thunderstorm chances for Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday. Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th: Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday. The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th: Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe. The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st: A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system. The rest of the week looks good.

Tuesday night March 8th Blog: The rain continues, but what about severe storms.

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I hope your week has started off great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad so far.  I have been keeping myself busy the past couple of days with a sick son and running to the doctor for my migraine stuff.  Plus of course work is a little chunk of the day, lol.  However, I actually prefer to stay busy, I actually feel like my days are productive when I am busy.  Even if I don’t get the things done that I want to get done at least I am getting stuff done if that made any sense at all.  Well we are right on track with the Heady Pattern and right where we should be.  We have this prolonged storm system this week as it should be and as it has been in the past with this pattern.  If you read my blogs much you know that I have been working on my pattern since 1999 when I was in college.  Gary Lezak, meteorologist in Kansas City, also uses a version of this pattern that he calls the LRC.  We both have worked hard to find the details of how this pattern works for many years and have been pretty successful at it and getting more accurate each year as we continue to learn.  A professor from the College of DuPage posted an article last week saying he thinks the atmosphere might be cycling and can be used to forecast tornadoes.  Well that is what I have been working on for years and have been able to forecast severe weather events pretty well.  At least other meteorologist are starting to notice their is a cycle going on in the atmosphere.  Even a few weather enthusiasts have taken a small portion of the Heady Pattern and have been trying to prove it in their own way.  I am thrilled it is getting out there and starting to catch on a bit.

So lets look at this system and rain.  Most of the central plains has seen the showers and thunderstorms that continues to push east and weaken tonight.  Some severe weather will continue tonight along the Gulf States but that is about it.  Another batch of rain will surge north on Wednesday morning.

Wednesday AM Precip

You can see the showers and thunderstorms lifting north on Wednesday morning.  Not much severe weather with this, just showers and thunderstorms.  During the afternoon, the scattered storms start to spread north.

Wednesday PM Rain

We will have moderate to heavy rains for central MO, Joplin, most of Arkansas and eastern Texas.  Any severe weather will be in southern Arkansas or eastern Texas.  This batch will work through and weaken as additional thunderstorms work in for Thursday.

Thursday AM

Again on Thursday morning I am not expecting much severe weather, just showers and thunderstorms.  By Thursday afternoon, most of the showers and thunderstorms shift south of I-44

Thursday PM Rain

Now this system is going to take its time getting out of here.  Lets jump to Saturday.

500 Saturday

You can still see the energy across the southern plains.  It is working out but it is still here.  You can see the same thing last cycle on January 22nd and two cycles ago on December 3rd.  Here is January 22nd.

Jan 22nd 500

You can see the deep wave in January and in December we had the same system with the weak energy left behind.

December 3rd 500

WHAT IS TO COME?

After this guy moves out, our next system with showers and thunderstorms that could be strong will be next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with showers and thunderstorms returning on Tuesday and Wednesday.  A little cooler the rest of the week with slight chances for rain returning by Saturday.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe on Monday and Tuesday.  Another round of thunderstorms possible on Thursday with cooler temperatures working in the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A nice mild week with thunderstorms working in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe to start the week.  Mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms sticking around into the middle of the week.  Cooling down for the last few days of the week.

April 10th-16th:  Mild temperatures through the week with a few waves working through.  A few showers on Monday and a slight chance as well on Wednesday.  Thunderstorm chances for Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd:  Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Up and down temperatures most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Saturday.

April 24th-30th:  Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th:  Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system.  The rest of the week looks good.

Thursday night/Friday AM March 3rd Blog: Great temperatures stick around with a bigger system moving in!

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Good Thursday night or soon to be Friday morning.  I hope your week has been great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad, just busy as always.  I am getting some work done here at work and wanted to get a blog out as I had a little bit of down time.  I do want to say happy birthday to my sister.  She is 39 years old and the past 6 months haven’t been fun for her as she has been fighting breast cancer.  In fact on her birthday she had to have a chemo treatment but at least her last big chemo treatment.  Now for the next 8 months she is on a lower grade chemo which won’t make her as sick.

Sister

Our weather looks great again for us on Friday.  We should see plenty of sunshine with fantastic temperatures.

Friday Temps

Saturday may be a hair cooler, especially the farther north you travel as a weak front works through but still great!

Saturday temps

However, I am watching our next system which works in on Monday.  This is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.  So lets take a look.

Monday 500mb

You can see how the Jet Stream is digging across the SW US.  I put a circle around the two main waves.  This should produce showers and thunderstorms, some strong for Monday PM across the region.

Monday

Lets jump into Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

Wave one pushes into the Great Lakes as wave two becomes the dominant wave and now sits in the southern plains.  So lets go back to November 30th in the Heady Pattern.  This is two cycles ago when the Jet Stream was at a similar strength and you will see this is a very similar system.  Our cycle length is about 49.5 days and this is roughly 99-100 days ago, which is two cycles ago.

November 30th

This is the exact same system! It is a little farther north due to seasonal changes but the same system which is flat out amazing and right on time.

The cold front will drag farther south on Tuesday.

Tuesday precip

With my great skills, ha ha I drew the fronts on for you.  North of the front you have a northerly wind which will lower the severe threat.  So the strong storms on Tuesday and Wednesday will stay near the front.  Because this becomes a cut-off low, it doesn’t go anywhere.  In fact lets jump into next weekend.

Next Friday 500

Look at next Friday.  It hasn’t moved much, it is cut-off and very similar to the system above on November 30th.  If you are wonder why is it doing this?  Well, it is suppose to, this is the pattern!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms through the week.  Best chances will be on Monday and then again late in the week.

March 13th-19th:  Mild with scattered thunderstorms on Monday and into Tuesday morning.  A second system works in Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorms.  Cooler but dry the rest of the week.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms moving in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Cooler and dry the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday.  Mild temperatures stick around through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorms return for the weekend.

April 3rd-9th:  Thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures stick around with showers through the middle of the week.  A second system with storms on Wednesday and Thursday could also have strong storms.  Cooler but dry for the rest of the week.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with a few showers early in the week.  Slight chances for thunderstorms work in for the second half of the week.

April 17th-23rd:  Up and down temperatures through the week with fast moving waves.  Slight chances for showers early in the week with these waves working through.  A better chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

April 24th-30th:  Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th:  Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system.  The rest of the week looks good.

Wednesday early AM Blog March 2nd: Severe weather season moves in!

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Comments Off on Wednesday early AM Blog March 2nd: Severe weather season moves in!

I hope your week is going great so far.  The weather hasn’t been bad in most places.  Actually we had great temperatures over the weekend and to start the week.  Can you believe it is already March?  Time is just flying by and spring is right around the corner.  In fact, Daylight Savings Time begins next weekend on the 13th.  So imagine this, the sun will set around 7:40 at the end of the month and it won’t be dark till about 8:15.  Their are brighter days ahead!  However, we are moving quickly into severe weather season.  We might as well say it is here b/c of the mild temperatures over the winter.  When we have a cold winter, the temperatures over the Gulf of Mexico really cool down and it takes a little time for us to push into severe weather season.  Well, that isn’t the case this year.  The gulf is warm and we are jumping into the season.  Joplin and many other areas are close to setting record low snowfall seasons.  In fact, if Joplin sees no snow from here on out, we will set a new record.  Now for a snow lover like me, that isn’t a record I want to set.

The rest of the week looks pretty good, but we do have several fast moving waves.  Look at the one rolling through tonight.

Wednesday 500

This is a fast moving wave dropping in which is the same that we saw one cycle ago on January 13th.

January 13th

This will give the central plains a few showers tonight.

Wednesday night

We have another quick wave Friday that doesn’t do much for us and then again late Saturday.  Here is a look at Saturday.

Saturday night

You can see Saturday night’s wave stays mainly across the northern plains.  We will actually have nice temperatures in the 60s for most of the week.  A bigger system rolls in on Monday and Tuesday.

Monday 500

This is interesting.  Look at this system two cycles ago on November 30th.

November 30th

It was still a strong system, but we had a split Jet Stream because it just wasn’t strong enough for all the energy to dive south.  This time around it will be and it should be a pretty wet storms for areas in the central plains.  It could also produce some strong storms.  Lets look at Monday and Tuesday.

Precip Monday

Here is Tuesday.

Precip Tuesday

I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

This week:  After this system passes by, cooler with partly sunny skies.  However, temperatures should warm up nicely for the weekend.

Next Week:  Mild with showers and thunderstorms that could be strong on Monday and Tuesday.  Showers stick around for Wednesday and Thursday with cooler temperatures the rest of the week.

March 13th-19th:  Up and down temperatures all week long with slight chances for rain on Sunday and Monday.  We will have another weak system with a few showers on Wednesday.  Temperatures warm up for the weekend.

March 20th-26th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  A second system rolls in for Wednesday with more strong thunderstorms.  Cooler the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday.  Mild temperatures stick around through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorms return for the weekend.

April 3rd-9th:  Thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures stick around with showers through the middle of the week.  A second system with storms on Wednesday and Thursday could also have strong storms.  Cooler but dry for the rest of the week.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with a few showers early in the week.  Slight chances for thunderstorms work in for the second half of the week.

April 17th-23rd:  Up and down temperatures through the week with fast moving waves.  Slight chances for showers early in the week with these waves working through.  A better chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

April 24th-30th:  Mild and dry through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

May 1st-7th:  Mainly a mild with just slight chances for showers on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week will be mainly dry.

May 8th-14th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe.  The second half of the week should be calm and mild.

May 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Warm with severe storms possible on Wednesday with our next system.  The rest of the week looks good.