Archive: Apr 2016

Thursday PM Blog: Next system working in

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Good Thursday afternoon.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been very busy but pretty good.  All morning I have been working on the AMS (American Meteorological Society) national conference for 2017.  The AMS is those wonderful seals that us meteorologist work our butts off for that none of you guys know what they mean, lol.  However, I have been on the national board for the past 3 years and board chair next year, so I am working on the conference location.  This summer, we are going to Austin and in 2017, I am trying to get it in KC.  The conference has never been in KC, and it is time!  Plus that is where I am from, so I am KC biased lol.

During our severe weather the other night I started doing Facebook Live broadcasts.  I thought this was great!  I was able to show everyone where the storms were, and telling everyone live what I was thinking.  I was doing this when I wasn’t on-air with cut-ins.  Plus I was able to answer questions live for viewers that wanted to know what was going to happen.  I will have to do these more often as weather events move in and are here.

Well most of us are having great weather today!  However, our next system is pushing in quickly.  Lets take a look.

500

You can see the system developing across the SW US.  Now this is right on target with the Heady Pattern.  Lets go back one cycle to March 9th.

March 9th

In March, this system became a cut-off low and dug into northern Mexico.  This time around it won’t dip as far south but still push across the south central plains.  Showers and thunderstorms will start getting going on Friday.

Surface Friday PM

However, look how far south the warm front is on Friday.  This means any big storms will stay mainly in central and southern OK and parts of Texas.

Cape Friday

Here is where the storm energy will be on Friday.  However, this will try to lift north on Saturday.

Cape Saturday

So lets break this down.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms getting going on Friday morning, but not severe across the region.

morning precip Friday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue into Friday afternoon.

afternoon precip friday

Anything severe at this time would be southern OK and northern TX.  Lets go into Friday night.

night friday precip

Strong storms now in SE KS and SW MO, but severe should stay in eastern OK, western AR and south into TX.  On Saturday afternoon, the front will quickly push east.  But there is a small window for severe storms.

saturday precip

A small window for severe storms early and mid afternoon on Saturday for central MO, SW MO south into eastern OK.  I will keep you updated.

Oh, next severe events:  Next Friday and Saturday, Thursday the 12th.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday.  Warming up with a much stronger system working in with possible severe storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: We will start the week with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday.  Staying warm through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday, but much better chances on Thursday and Friday.  On Thursday and Friday, I expect a widespread severe weather event across the central plains.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

6:10pm Severe weather updated

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Severe weather has been ongoing for several hours now across central KS, central and western OK.  There have been a few tornado warnings but most of these have been producing large hail and gusty winds.  This has all been going right along a dryline with the storms lifting NE.  At this time, the thunderstorms will slowly switching into a line of thunderstorms with individual supercells in the line.  Once we get this line complete, the line will start to plow off toward the east.  Because we are going to see more of a line of storms through the rest of the evening, the main threat will be wind and hail with a lower tornado threat.  Now, we do get tornadoes in lines of thunderstorms.  However, usually the tornadoes are shorter lived and smaller but something we want to watch as work through the evening hours.  The line really gets going by 8-9pm

9pm

By 11pm, the line should be in SW MO and NW AR.

11pm

After midnight, we will just have a high wind and hail threat with a very low tornado threat.  These storms will continue to push east and weaken after midnight.  Here is a look at 1am.

1am

Another threat with this line of storms will be heavy rains.  Most areas will pick up 1-3″ of rain.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild and nice start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit again with mainly dry conditions heading into the weekend.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Tuesday 10:15AM Severe weather update

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great day so far.  Mine is rolling right along as I got up early and started doing some work and looking at all of the weather data.  Of course, if you know me I am the biggest weather nerd/geek around and I live and breath the weather.  So I have been diving into all of the data that comes out over the past couple of days to see what exactly will happen across the central plains later today and tonight.

This system is right on track with the Heady Pattern and out 49.5 day cycle.  We saw this exact system on March 7th and January 17th.  It will come back through in about 50 days once again with a summer version or shall I say more of a June version.  I will keep you updated through the day with what the changes are.  First off we have showers and thunderstorms to our north around the KC metro that will dip into central MO over the next few hours.  This will drop an outflow boundary (like a cold front) into the area.

cape

This is our cape, or energy or how unstable the atmosphere will be this afternoon.  The red and purple shows the most unstable air.  I put the dryline and the outflow boundary on the map for you.  This is important because the storms will fire this evening along the dryline out to our west.  However, this evening they will try to pop-up along the outflow boundary which will be over us.  Here is another look at this.

surface winds

Where that outflow boundary lines up, we will have surface winds trying to back to the SE.  That means if storms can fire they could rotate easily.  However, most of them will be out west along the dryline.  The whole reason I am posting this is just to show I am watching this boundary this afternoon.

Noon-4pm:  Mostly cloudy, warm and windy with a random isolated storm trying to pop-up as we get closer to 4pm.  However, most of us staying dry.

4pm precip

4pm-7pm:  Storms really get going across central KS south into central OK.  These will become severe quickly with hail, wind and some tornadoes.  Some of the tornadoes could be strong out to our west.  Most of us will have mostly cloudy skies with a few isolated storms with a low severe threat through this time with the outflow boundary trying to produce a few storms.  If some storms can pop-up, we will need to watch them.

7pm precip

7pm-10pm:  Severe thunderstorms from our west work into the area.  We will have very heavy rains with gusty winds, large hail and a tornado threat.  The tornado threat will drop some from what it will be from the 4-7pm time frame, but it will still be present and needs to be watched.

10pm precip

10pm-2am:  Showers and thunderstorms with large hail and gusty winds.  Tornado threat will continue to drop.  At this time we will have a low tornado threat.

4am precip

Most of the storms should be out of the area by 3am.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild and nice start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit again with mainly dry conditions heading into the weekend.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Monday night blog: Severe weather update for Tuesday

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Good Monday evening!  I hope you have had a great Monday and evening as well.  Mine has been pretty good, just working away and trying to get as much done here before the 9:00 news begins here shortly.  I wanted to make sure to get a blog out about our severe weather chances on Tuesday evening night as that seems to be the big talk around the area today.  At least for tonight, most of us will be calm.  We can’t rule out a few thunderstorms trying to pop-up across north central OK and pushing NE.  I am watching to see if a few can get going over the next few hours.  So at least a few isolated storms with minimal severe threat is possible for the overnight hours tonight.

Tonight

It is Tuesday afternoon and evening that we really need to watch.  We have a low threat across MO and AR with an elevated threat for severe weather in eastern KS and eastern OK.  Central KS and central OK are stuck in the high risk for severe weather.  Lets break this down, here is our system pushing in Tuesday evening.

500 Tuesday

You can see the massive system pushing out into the central plains.  This will create a strong set-up for severe weather between 3-5pm across central KS.

Cape

The map above is showing our cape or how unstable or juicy the atmosphere will be.  You can see the prime areas that will be targeted during the afternoon and evening.  I also in very paint fashion added the fronts and circled the prime spot for severe weather to pop-up for you.  Storm will fire between 3-5pm with some supercells that could have some tornadoes with them across central OK and central KS.  The storms will stay fairly isolated through the 5-7pm time.

5-7pm

Between 7-10pm, these storms will become a huge complex and really start plowing east.  They should make it to the MO/KS state line around 9 or 10pm.  At this time the tornado threat is still present but it will start to slowly shift to a high wind and hail threat.

8-10pm

After 10pm, the storms will continue pushing east and most likely severe.  However, the tornado threat will continue to drop with the main threat becoming wind and hail after 10pm.

10-12pm

These storms will continue to push east and eventually weaken through the overnight hours.  I will continue to keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild and nice start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit again with mainly dry conditions heading into the weekend.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Midday Sunday Blog: Severe weather ramps up this week!

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I hope you are having a great weekend and a fantastic Sunday so far.  Mine has been pretty good!  I have been trying to get all kinds of stuff done around the house this weekend and outside.  Also, I want to say congrats to one of my co-workers and great friends Mike Olmstead on the marriage yesterday with Cynthia.  You two make a beautiful couple and I wish you both the best of luck!

The weather is great for us today with temperatures shooting through the 70s.  It is windy, but I am going to enjoy it.  I need to mow and I want to get the boat cleaned up for the lake season.

boat

However, it will be a busy week with the weather as we have several storm systems working through.  A moderate to strong system works through the northern plains today with showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.  However, most of the moisture will stay across the northern half of the central plains.

5 pm

Here is a look at 5pm.  You can see strong to severe storms with the main threat of hail and wind across eastern NB and stretching south into north central KS.  Now these storms will lift NE, so they will stay mainly north of the Joplin metro, but could affect the KC metro after dark.  Lets move to 10-12 late this evening.

midnight

The storms lift into Iowa and NW MO.  Farther south in the Joplin Metro, we could see a random isolated storm tonight, but that would be about it.  This system will push east pretty quick on Monday, but with the front hanging out across the central plains there is a slight chance for a pop-up storm on Monday.

Monday precip

Now we need to focus on Tuesday, the next big storm system working in.  This system will have all of the ingredients to produce a fairly nice size severe weather outbreak.  At least for my viewing are it should be our 5th of the season.  Lets take a look.  Here is our storm system on Tuesday.

500 Tuesday

I put the red line on the map which shows it leaning back toward the NW.  This means it has a negative tilt which shows how powerful this guy is.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern as we saw this in our last cycle just 49.5 days ago.  Lets go back to March 7th.

March 7th

This system also have the negative tilt and gave us thunderstorms.  A dryline will set-up just west of us on Tuesday evening.  A dryline separates the warm moist air and the warm dry air.  Thunderstorms love to blow along the dryline.

Dryline

Also I want to show you are cape, cape is in a sense the stability or how unstable the atmo will get.  Right along this line the atmosphere will become very unstable.

Cape

This means by evening strong to severe storms will fire from NE KS, Central KS south into central OK.

Tuesday evening

These should become severe quickly with hail, wind and a few tornadoes that could be on the strong side.  Thunderstorms will track NE into Eastern OK, SE KS, SW MO, Western MO through the evening hours.

Tuesday night

As the evening pushes on the tornado threat will slow drop and the hail and wind threat will become the main threat.  However, this is an event we want to watch closely over the next few days.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Friday midday April 22nd: Warmer temperatures with a few severe weather threats!

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Happy Friday!  I hope your week was great and enjoying your Friday so far. Mine has been pretty good, just a little tired.  Up early to take my son to school and have been running around in the yard so far this morning.  Wow, what a great day!  Temperatures are going to continue to warm up with sunny skies.  Most of us should go in the 73-76 range.

Temps today

Even warmer tomorrow as we press 80.

Saturday temps

However, when we look at the Heady Pattern, we are going to jump back into the active stretch of the pattern here over the next few weeks.  Remember, we are in a 49.5 day cycle that will last a few more months before the new one kicks off during the middle of the summer.  We are right on target with where we should be with our next storm systems working in next week.  In fact, we have 3 systems next week rolling through.  The first one is on Sunday.

Sunday 500

The low is up in northern Nebraska so that puts the best energy and lift just NW of us in the red circle.  Plus this system doesn’t have a ton of moisture but it will fire showers and thunderstorms by Sunday.  The ones that do pop-up could be strong to severe.

Precip Sunday evening

Next system rolls in on Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

This is a much stronger system with a neg. tilt meaning it is leaning back toward the NW.  This will provide more energy for the system which I circled in the red having the best shot for severe storms on Tuesday evening.

Tuesday precip

I will keep you updated.

#headypattern #mowx #kswx #okwx #arwx

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A few scattered storms Sunday and into Monday.  This will be pretty scattered but the ones that get going could be strong to severe.  A much stronger system moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  A higher threat for severe storms on Tuesday evening and into Wednesday.  Even a third system works in late Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Wednesday AM Blog: More Thunderstorms, plus a look at our next severe weather chances

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been going pretty good so far.  I have been fighting my sleep pattern this week, ugh.  I say or write this at 1am, but I have to stay on a strict sleep pattern or my migraines become much worse.  However, I am going to knock this sucker out and get a little sleep.  I need to run some errands this morning and pick up my boat as it has been in the stereo shop as I have been beefing up the stereo system.  I still have some 1990’s teenager in me where I want to here this KICK in the system when I am on the lake.

Well it has been a gloomy week so far and the scattered showers will stick around through the morning hours.  Lets take a look at this slow moving system.

500 today

The problem with this guy has been being cut-off from the main flow of the jet.  So he is a very slow moving.  Finally he is kicking out of here over the next 24 hours or so.  However, we have needed the rain and we are still way behind.  Here are the stats in Joplin.

This month:  1.6″

Year:  About 5.5″

Average:  10.5″

Behind by: About 5″

So we need the rain and we will see the rain working out of here this afternoon.

precip today

As the back side of the low passes by tomorrow, we could see a few showers across the southern plains.

precip thrusday

Friday and Saturday look great for the central plains with temperatures warming through the 70s.  The beginnings of our next system will roll in on Sunday.  Sunday through Tuesday, we will see a couple weak upper level waves working through with a front across the central plains.  This will fire off a few scattered storms through the period.  Here is a look at Sunday afternoon.

Sunday precip

Same situation for Monday and into Tuesday.

Tuesday precip

Finally by next Thursday, a strong upper level low will kick out which is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.

Next Thursday 500

In the circle area, is the area of possible severe weather.  This is the exact same we saw 49.5 days ago.  Lets go back to March 8th.

March 8th 500

Thunderstorms will be likely next Thursday and Friday.

Friday precip

Some of these could be strong to severe.  In fact I see many systems over the next several weeks that fall exactly as they should with the pattern.  I will keep you updated and I promise the blogs won’t be as long, lol.  I just haven’t blogged on here in a while.  Long range forecast is below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Partly sunny with a few pop-up storms from Sunday through Wednesday.  Most of us will stay dry, but the ones that do pop-up could be on the strong side.  Strong to severe storms on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Wednesday Night/Thursday AM: Right on track with the pattern, watching down the road.

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Good Wednesday night and Thursday morning!  I hope you are having a great work week so far as it is flying right on by.  Mine has been going pretty good, but it has been busy and I am ready for the weekend.  I just remember that the tax deadline is almost here.  I did my taxes a while back but I owe the state of MO a chunk of change and I need to pay them money.  If you are in the same boat, I am sure you are as happy about that as I am.  The weather has been fairly decent the past couple of days and will actually get a little better as we work toward the weekend.  We have had a weak wave that has been passing through the southern plains that has given a lot of us clouds and even a few random showers the past couple of days.

500

This weak wave will roll east over the next day and we will return to sunshine with great temperatures.  Highs over the next few days will be into the lower 70s.  Next system starts to work in over the weekend.  Take a look at it on Saturday.

Saturday 500

At this time, it is a fairly strong system across the Rockies, but most of the showers and thunderstorms are west of us.

Saturday precip

Our chances for showers and thunderstorms will start to increase late Sunday and into Monday.  However,  I am not looking at much of a severe threat due to our system stretching out and eventually cutting off.

Monday 500

By Monday, the system is cut-off from the main Jet Stream which means it is going to lose a lot of juice.  So I expect just scattered showers and a few thunderstorms.

Precip Monday

Rain chances until next Wednesday is the way it looks right now.  We are right on track with the #headypattern and it looks like our severe weather threat will start picking up again here in about 10-12 days.  More to come.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms from late Sunday through Wednesday.  Mild the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances returning by the weekend.

April 24th-30th: Warming up with thunderstorm to start the week on Sunday and Monday.  A second system rolls in late Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  This second system could have strong to severe storms across the area.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 1st-7th: Warm with thunderstorm chances that could be severe on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Monday Night Blog April 11th: Cooler temperatures, but more thunderstorms in the forecast

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Good Monday night!  I hope you had a great weekend and enjoyed the great spring temperatures.  I got outside and did all kinds of things over the weekend in the yard.  I even got about 1/4 of the yard mowed before the thunderstorms hit me last night.  Part of the yard looks really nice!  We have much cooler temperatures that have settled in now and will be here for the next day or so before we start to warm back up.  We are still right on track with the pattern.  Remember, we are in a 49.5 day cycle this year.  That means what is going on today is similar to what we had about 50 days ago and 100 days ago and so on.  In fact, we are now in the 6 cycle of this this current stretch of being in this cycle length.  This 50ish day cycle will last until June or July before it takes a switch and becomes most likely a longer cycle for the next year.  Here is what today looks like.

500

I put a red circle around the wave that is rolling through.  The same wave the gave us all of the severe weather last night.  So lets go back 50 days.

Feb. 21st

We can evening go back 99 days, which would be 49.5 days.

January 3rd

You can see this same wave working through.  However, we do have another weak wave that will work in late Wednesday and Thursday.

Thursday 500

This wave is weak and will be lacking moisture.  It will give the central and southern plains some clouds and maybe a random shower or two.

Thursday precip

You can see not much in the way of moisture.  However, the next system that slowly presses in over the weekend will have a nice supply of moisture.  This system will just be disorganized.

Sunday 500

The energy will be very stretched out with will keep this system from becoming a big powerhouse.  However, if it can organize a bit, it could give us some good thunderstorms.  This will be something to be watch.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Scattered thunderstorms that could be strong on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  The severe threat is low, but something to watch.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances returning for the weekend.

April 24th-30th: Warming up with thunderstorm to start the week on Sunday and Monday.  A second system rolls in late Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  This second system could have strong to severe storms across the area.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 1st-7th: Warm with thunderstorm chances that could be severe on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Friday Morning Blog April 8th: More thunderstorm in the forecast

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Good Friday morning!  I hope your week has gone great.  At least the weather has been pretty good over the past couple of days.  We have had to deal with the wind, but at least it will get a little bit better.  I am hoping to get a few things done outside today before I have to head to work.  In fact, I would like to start to dig into the boat and start getting it ready for the season, we shall see.  Temperatures will be cooler today, but still not a bad day.

Friday temps

Temperatures will warm up even a little more on Saturday out ahead of our next system working in late Saturday and Sunday.

Sunday 500

You can see the weak wave spinning out across Arizona and New Mexico.  However, still strong enough to give us showers and thunderstorms.  This is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We have been in a 49.5 day cycle since about July 15th of 2015.  We will switch into a new cycle here in about 10 weeks, but we still have a ways to go.  This will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday.

Sunday precip

Some of these could be strong, but the severe risk is low right now.  These will continue into Monday morning and then shift south.

Monday AM precip

I will keep you updated!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Showers and thunderstorms that could be strong to severe on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures stick around most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd: Another mild to warm week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up through the week with good chances for thunderstorms that could be severe on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit heading into the weekend.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.