Good Tuesday evening!  I hope your week is going great so far.  The weather has been fantastic the past few days.  In fact most of us shot into the low to mid 80s across the central plains today, you can’t beat that.  We do have some changes which are going to roll in for a lot of us tonight.  We have a cold front slicing through with some showers and thunderstorms.  This will also drop our temperatures a bit over the next few days.  Lets take a look at what is going on out there.

500

You can see our system the is working through tonight.  This is right in line and on target with the pattern.

Feb 14th

This will give KS and MO scattered thunderstorms tonight.  Some of these could be strong but the severe threat is pretty low.

10pm

Here is 10pm, lets work through the night.

2am

2am, and lets go to 4am.

4am

This will quickly work out of here tomorrow with temperatures a little cooler the next couple of days.  Our next system will work in on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could also be on the strong to possible severe side.

Next Monday

However, when I look down the road, the system that really sticks out at me for severe weather right now is the May 11th and 12th system.  I want to see how that one comes together.  We continue in an El Nino which is weakening and it looks like we will switch over to a La Nina during the summer months.

El Nino

The red line shows you where we are at right now.  We will continue in the 49.5 day cycle with this Heady Pattern for a few more months and then see a drastic switch to a longer cycle in June or possibly as late as July.  Check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Showers and thunderstorms that could be strong to severe on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures stick around most of the week with thunderstorm chances returning Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

April 17th-23rd: Another mild to warm week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up through the week with good chances for thunderstorms that could be severe on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit heading into the weekend.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.