Archive: May 2016

More severe weather: Next 48 hours

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Good Thursday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great and looking forward to the holiday weekend.  It has been and active week with showers and thunderstorms and a ton of severe weather across the state of KS with numerous tornadoes over the past few days.  It looks like we are going to do it again today.  I actually have off the next 5 days and have zero plans of coming to work.  Well that is if we can stay out of the severe weather.  But we have plenty of severe weather that is going to be around over the next few days.  Lets look at this afternoon.

4pm

Here is 4pm.  We already of big time storms getting going across central KS and these will most likely drop tornadoes again this afternoon and evening.  I circled in the purple the highest threat for severe weather at this time and in the yellow the lower threat.  Lets move on to 6pm.

6pm

Thunderstorms will still be raging across central KS with the highest severe threat.  However, I do expect scattered storms across NE OK, SW MO and also NW MO. These storms could have some gusty winds and some hail associated with them.  Lets jump to 9pm.

9pm

The highest threat remains in central KS with a lower threat with scattered storms around it.  After 9pm, we will have to see if a complex develops and pushes east or if the storms just decide to fall apart.

On Friday afternoon we will see another severe weather set-up across the central plains.

Friday pm

I think the highest threat will be in NE TX and SE OK, but we will have a severe threat all the way north into SE KS and SW MO.  This is something I will watch through the day on Friday.  Thunderstorms will stick around into the weekend as well with at least a low severe threat sticking around.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Scattered thunderstorms through the holiday weekend and into at least the middle of the week with warm temperatures.  We should dry out a bit late in the week.

June 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild and nice through the middle of the week with thunderstorms chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Warm temperatures and mainly dry heading into the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  War with slight chances for thunderstorms to start the week.  We should stay warm most of the week with a few scattered thunderstorms during the middle of the week with hot temperatures by the weekend.

June 19th-25th:  A hot start to the week with a few thunderstorms by Tuesday that will cool us down for the middle of the week.  The rest of the week should be dry with great temperatures.

June 26th-July 2nd:  The heat returns with thunderstorm chances by the middle of the week.  As we see a couple waves work through, the chances for thunderstorms will last into the weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with a few thunderstorms to start the week, then hot and dry the rest of the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Updated Tuesday PM Blog: Severe threat picks up

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Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great.  Mine has been pretty good so far, just busy as usual.  My son and I are hanging out today but mainly inside due to the scattered showers and thunderstorms. We will see plenty of chances for thunderstorms over the next few days.  One batch has been working through over the past few hours.  However, most of the afternoon looks pretty good before additional thunderstorms fire again tonight.

Tonight precip

Some of these working across northern OK, southern KS and SE KS could be on the strong to severe side with wind and hail late this evening.  These will push through the region during the overnight hours tonight.  The severe threat shifts a little farther north near KC on Wednesday and into southern Iowa.

Wednesday evening

However, by Thursday the threat shifts back south into southern and SE KS.  Also we will see the severe threat work south in Oklahoma as well.  I think Thursday the severe threat will jump up to an elevated threat for Wichita, Tulsa, Joplin metro and NW AR.

Thursday evening

On Friday, the main upper level low will kick out into the central plains.

Friday 500

This should produce another elevated threat for the Joplin metro, Tulsa and NW AR.

Friday precip

I will keep you updated through the week

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Scattered thunderstorms continue through the holiday.  Some of these could be on the strong to severe side.  As we continue to have weak waves push into the central plains through the week, scattered thunderstorms will continue to fire off most of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures will stay warm with highs into the 80s

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances returning for the rest of the holiday weekend.  As a slow moving wave works through, temperatures will cool down a bit with scattered showers through the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up heading into the weekend.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Thursday AM Blog: More showers plus the NEW CYCLE IS HERE!

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Good Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good so far.  I had the day off on Wednesday as I had to shoot up to KC and go to my migraine doctor for my normal check up.  Of course being from KC and knowing the city like the back of my hand, I didn’t make it out of the city before getting some BBQ.  Then I headed home and went to my sons baseball game.  He is getting better as he got a couple of hits last night.  He just turned 7 and I feel for him as it is so important to get a hit.  It is amazing what you forget when you get older.  I am 37 and with my son being 30 years younger you really get to see how hard it is to be a kid.  Yes we all know being an adult is hard, but remember being a kid?  Your whole world is everything on a micro scale.  Everything that happens is so important.  As you age you just don’t care about that stuff and you worry about your family, job, others and relationships.  However, I was proud of him as any father is of a child when they aren’t striking out!

Well we have some massive changes in the Heady Pattern.  Remember the pattern sets up the 3rd week of September each and every year.  When I say the pattern, that means this is how storm systems will react.  Now in that pattern we have a recurring cycle each year where in a sense the same systems repeat over and over again.  This years cycle has been about 49 days.  So that means the systems that roll through today are similar to about 49 days ago.  However, the cycle doesn’t set up the same time the pattern does.  In fact the new cycle is setting up right now!!!!  I already have a pretty good idea what the new cycle is going to be give or take about 3 days for the next 12-14 months.  So the 49 day cycle will slowly fade over the next few months as the new cycle gets stronger and stronger.  This is all part of the Heady Pattern and being influenced by El Nino and La Nina.  The new cycle will be longer than 49 days.  I actually prefer a longer cycle as we have 2 or 3 bigger systems with-in the cycle during the winter season.  I will continue to update you on this.  Oh and so you know, I am super excited as the earliest that I have ever even had a hint of the new cycle is June.  So for me to get it nailed down on May 18th is a massive break through for me.  Lets look at El Nino that is almost about dead.

El Nino

Last November, we had a near record El Nino.  It has now decreased to well near dead.  Why?  La Nina is coming on strong.

La Nina

We need to see how the Heady Pattern sets up, but most likely we will have a much colder winter with some snow!

A few showers will try to work back into the southern central plains for us today.  We have a weak upper level wave working through.

500

We will have light scattered showers working back in this afternoon.

Noon precip

These will become a little more widespread during the overnight hours tonight.

Thursday late evening precip

Have a great day!

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Scattered thunderstorms picking up on Monday and Tuesday.  A few of these could be on the strong to severe side.  A second wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.  Temperatures cool down a bit heading into the holiday weekend.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances returning for the rest of the holiday weekend.  As a slow moving wave works through, temperatures will cool down a bit with scattered showers through the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up heading into the weekend.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Monday Evening: More thunderstorms for tonight

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Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a great weekend and the week has started off pretty good.  Most of us have had a very wet and cool start to the week.  Here in the central plains, we should have high temperatures around 80 for the middle of May.  A lot of us didn’t reach 60 degrees this afternoon.  Temperatures will stay cool for the next couple of days before we start to warm back up later this week.  Lets look at this storm system rolling through.  It is still right on track with our pattern as we remain in about a 49 day cycle.

500 today

You can see these same waves rolling through back on March 28th which is one cycle ago.

March 28th

Additional thunderstorms will continue through most of the central plains tonight.  Again, we aren’t going to see any severe weather except for out in the panhandles of Oklahoma and Texas.  Lets look at the middle of the evening hours.

10pm tonight

You can see the showers and thunderstorms really filling back in along the KS/OK state line and pushing back into SW MO.  These areas could pick up another 1-1.5″ of rain through though the overnight hours tonight.  Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will last into the morning hours.

Tuesday AM precip

Temperatures will stay cool for the next couple of day.  Look at the cool temperatures pressing south Tuesday.

TUesday temps

Our next wave kicks out on Thursday and Friday.  However, this is really weakening and falling apart as it pushes in.

Thursday 500

A few showers with this wave as it passes through, then temperatures will warm up for the weekend.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warm with scattered on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  A second wave will kick in on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with thunderstorm chances.   Mild temperatures into the weekend.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances for Monday and Tuesday that could be severe.  Staying warm through the week with a nice first weekend of June.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Friday early afternoon: More severe chances and updated long range forecast

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I hope you are having a great Friday so far.   Mine is going decent with as we are almost to the weekend.  I am getting some work done and stuff done around the house before I head into work.  I am also fighting a migraine that has been killing me the past two days as my sleep pattern has been off this week with severe weather.  It looks like again tonight we will have showers and thunderstorms with at least a low severe threat across portions of the central plains.  Lets take a look at this system.

500 today

Here is our storm system sliding down form the northern plains.  Most of the energy is well north but you can see the Low I put on the map.  Plus the second low that passed a couple of days ago.  I put that on there so you can see where we are at in the pattern very easily.  Lets go back to March 25th.

march 25th

In March, you can see both systems with a much stronger Jet Stream back in the early spring.  Lets go back 2 cycles to February 5th.

Feb 5th

Also a much stronger Jet Stream with the two systems working through.  However, we are working toward the summer months and the Jet Stream is weakening quickly.  This is why our severe weather season is usually dead by June 10th.  We still get afternoon pop-up storms in the summer with some being severe, but the big severe weather outbreaks are usually done by about June 10th.  We still have about 4 weeks to go and then things will calm down.  We have had 8 severe weather events this spring season.  Now when I say a severe weather event, I mean in the Joplin TV viewing area we had severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings.  We usually average about 8-10 in a season.  I was thinking 10-14 for this season and we should hit that mark being above average.  As a cold front drops in this evening scattered thunderstorms will pop-up in the 3-4 pm time frame from NE MO-NW MO-NE KS back through central KS.  These storms will drift SE through the evening hours with the front.  Here is a look at about 6-7 pm.

7pm precip

I do expect some of these to be severe with some large hail.  However, the atmosphere isn’t that unstable, so a lot of severe just won’t happen.  The threat this evening is hail and some gusty winds and that is about it.  The surface winds will be out of the SW meaning it will be very hard to get any storms to rotate.  These storms will continue to drop SE from 7-9 pm.

8pm precip

As the thunderstorms continue to drop SE, the severe threat will continue to drop as we lose the heating of the day.  by 9-11 pm, the severe threat will be very low as the thunderstorms continue to fall apart.

9-10pm precip

Behind this front, temperatures will be much cooler for the entire central plains over the weekend.  Check out my updated long range forecast below.  #headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe, especially in OK, AR and TX.  A little cooler but nice on Thursday and Friday.  Warming up for the weekend ahead of our next storm system.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm with thunderstorms chances with two systems working through from Sunday through Wednesday.  We will have a severe chances with both of these systems.  Staying warm the second half of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances for Monday and Tuesday that could be severe.  Staying warm through the week with a nice first weekend of June.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday 10:40am Severe weather update!

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Good late morning, I hope you are having a great day so far.  We still have a severe threat for the evening and the overnight hours tonight, but the good news is our threat has greatly dropped.  We had some severe storms that popped up last night along the warm front as it shifted through between 1-4am and these storms continue in northern parts of MO along the front.  This has greatly helped our atmosphere out.  This means we won’t be near as unstable this afternoon as what we could have been if those storms didn’t develop during the overnight hours.  Lets look at our Cape or storm energy.

Cape

Our cape is still decent but could have been double this afternoon if we didn’t have the morning storms.  This will really give the thunderstorms havoc this afternoon as they try to develop.  The thunderstorms will have a very hard time developing and probably won’t until 6-7 pm  Here is a look at our surface map late this afternoon.

Surface

Because the thunderstorms will have a hard time getting going, they won’t even pop-up until the front has made it south to about I-44 in the 6-7 pm range.  Now this is banking on how the atmosphere looks right now.  If for some reason it would recover very quickly, we could see some changes but at this time it doesn’t look that way.  So scattered thunderstorms start to pop-up between 6-7 pm along and south of the cold front.

6-7pm precip

These will be very scattered and mainly along and south of I-44.  So if you live north of I-44, you aren’t going to see much action unless these storms can fire a little earlier.  Once the cap erodes and the low level jet can increase some during the evening hours, the thunderstorms will increase along the front.  Here is a look at the 9-10 pm time frame.

9-11PM

We will have strong to severe storms along and mainly south of I-44 with some large hail and gusty winds.  With these storms we could see some heavy amounts of rain as they hover just south of I-44 through the 11pm-2am time frame.

1AM

After about 3am, most of the storms should start to fall apart and shift south of the area.

3AM

Severe threat: Low/mainly along and south of I-44/main threat is wind, hail and some heavy rains.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday, some of these could be severe.  Another wave works in on Wednesday and Thursday with possibly severe thunderstorms.  Mild temperatures with thunderstorms chances returning for Saturday.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm with thunderstorms on the 22nd!!!!! that could be strong to severe.  Warm temperatures stick around with an addition severe threat on Tuesday and Wednesday with our next system working through.  Great temperatures and mainly dry for the rest of the week.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm temperatures with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday that could be severe.  Slight chances for thunderstorms will stick around on Wednesday and Thursday, but dry and warm for the weekend.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week that could be strong to severe on Sunday and Monday.  A hair cooler for a couple of days during the middle of the week behind this system but warming back up for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Monday May 9th: Severe weather update

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I hope you are having a great Monday so far.  Mine has been good but very busy.  I have to make sure to say happy birthday to my son Christian, who is somehow already 7 years old today.  And of course on my sons birthday we have a severe weather threat, that only sense.

The highest threat for severe weather is across eastern OK, most of AR for later today.  Eastern KS and most of MO is also under a severe threat, but just a little lower threat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will work up I-44 over the next several hours.  Most of these will stay under the severe level. Here is a look at early afternoon.

1pm precip

By late afternoon, this first batch will push into central and eastern MO and most areas will clear out just a bit.

5pm precip

We will start to see much stronger severe storms at this time firing up in SE KS and south into NE and north central OK.  These should become severe with large hail and gusty winds.  We can’t rule out and isolated tornado or two but the wind profiles aren’t the best right now.  These thunderstorms will work into a line as they work east through the evening hours.  Here is a look at 7pm.

7pm precip

By 7pm.  The highest tornado threat will be in central and southern AR.  Those storms will be lifting NE and scattered but need to be watched.  In NE OK and SE KS, these storms will be mainly a wind and hail threat with a lower tornado threat.  However, I am always watching it to see how things come together.

9pm precp

By 9pm, as the storms work into SW MO, they will start to greatly weaken.  Also in central AR the storms should switch over to mainly wind and hail threat at this time.  I will keep you updated

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  A few left over showers on Tuesday with our next wave working in with more thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.  However, our chances will be scattered!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Friday AM Blog: Watching for more severe weather

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Good Friday morning!  I hope you have had a great week.  Mine has been pretty good.  Of course the week has flown right on by like all of them seem to the older you get.  We have had great weather all week for the first week of May.  The first week of May and really any week of May is historically a very active week for us.  However, this week has been calm as possibly can be across most of the lower 48.  Of course, you know this can’t last long.  We will see changes starting to move in on Mothers Day.  Remember with the Heady Pattern we are still in a 49.5 day cycle and will be for about another 4-6 weeks before we see a drastic switch which we will cover at that time.  This next system will kick off a series of systems that we will see for the rest of the month.  So lets cover this first one.

Sunday 500

Here is the upper level energy kicking out into the central plains on Sunday.  The placement of the energy will fire off storms across the central plains.  We will start seeing showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Pm

We should have some severe storms across most of KS, SW MO and down through OK.  However our severe weather chances increase on Monday.

Cape Monday

You can see where the most unstable airmass will set-up on Monday afternoon.

Monday PM

Severe weather chances on Monday increase NE KS, SE KS, Eastern OK, Western AR and western MO on Monday.  We will have another wave working through on Wednesday and Thursday as well.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  A few left over showers on Tuesday with our next wave working in with more thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.  However, our chances will be scattered!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Watching for severe weather

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Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been going great so far, just fighting a few migraines which is well normal on a daily basis for me.  I am actually very used to them but today looks to be a better day.  At least the weather has been great this week.  We are going to continue to see great weather across the central plains for the next few days.  This is historically a busy severe week.  Today is the 16 year anniversary of the May 4th, 2003 massive severe weather outbreak.  We had tornadoes from Texas north into Iowa.  In my viewing area, this was really my first big severe weather coverage that I had ever done.  I was a young 24 covering three F-4’s on the ground at the same time going through Franklin, Carl Junction and Pierce City all at the same time.  This day holds a special day in my heart.

However, this year this week is extremely calm across the entire lower 48.  Of course it is May, it won’t last long.  Our next system moves in on Mothers Day.

Sunday 500

Remember, in the Heady Pattern, we are in a 49.5 day cycle and have been since last July.  This is the same system we saw last cycle and well 6 cycles ago as what we had on March 19th.

March 19th

Showers and thunderstorms will slowly increase across the central plains on Sunday afternoon.  these will mainly be across central KS.

sunday evening

However, chances for thunderstorms will continue to increase on Monday with a severe threat.

Monday evening

Severe threat continues into Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday evening

Lets look at Wednesday

Wednesday evening

So with two systems, we have a severe threat at least through the first half of the week.  I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Showers and thunderstorm chances from Sunday through Wednesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Thunderstorm chances return on the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.