Archive: Jun 2016

Friday Night/Saturday Morning Blog: Heat with more thunderstorms

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I hope you had a great work week and of course look forward to the weekend.  My week was fast and great!  I am getting around and about to head out the door for another vacation with a trip to Colorado this time.  The fam and I have all kinds of things planned but I will keep you updated on the weather.

On my next longer blog, I will get into the new cycle that is really taking shape.  However, remember the old 49 day cycle is still in place.  It is fading but still in place and will be for another month or two as the new cycle becomes the dominate cycle.

Of course the heat and humidity will stick around across the 4-state region(KS,OK,AR,MO) over the weekend.  However, we do have a cold front that will dive south on Sunday and start to change our weather up.  Lets take a look.  Here is the upper level map for Sunday.

Sunday 500

I put the Jet Stream on the map for you with our wonderful High pressure.  However, you can see the storm system digging in across the northern plains.  This will help drag a cold front south.  This did happen 49-50 days ago.  Lets go back to May 7th.

May 7th

You can see that same system across the northern plains.  Also the High pressure is in place as the same pattern was in place.  However, on Sunday, the front will drag south and fire off scattered strong thunderstorms.

Sunday precip

Most of these will be after 3pm and in the circle.  Dad I know you read my blogs and most of the storms will be south of Morgan Co.  Some of the storms could be strong so we will have to keep our eyes on them.  Behind the front, our temperatures will actually cool down a bit.

The extreme heat is gone through the 4th of July.  A stormy pattern will pick back up the week of the 4th of July with the heat kicking back in the week of the 10th.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm to hot through the middle of the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Another cold front will try to sag south the second half of the week with scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot temperatures return with mainly dry conditions.  A slight chances for a few thunderstorms late in the week but mainly dry.

July 10th-16th:  Hot and mainly dry with a few thunderstorms late in the week.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday night blog: More heat and humidity. But some thunderstorms

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope you have had a great week so far and staying cool from the heat and the humidity.  Most of us have been dealing with this for about 2 weeks now with no big relief over the next several day.  I think it is terrible outside during the middle of the afternoon.  If your at a pool or the lake it isn’t that bad, but anything else it isn’t much fun.  At least most of that time I am inside working in the wonderful AC this week.  However, I do need to get outside and mow my what is slowly becoming a crunchy grass in my yard.  The heat and humidity will stick around until our ridge of high pressure breaks down.

wednesday 500

This high pressure will dominate our weather for at least the next 4 or 5 days.  So again on Wednesday, expect very hot conditions.

Wednesday temperatures

Most areas will also see heat indices up around the 105-108 range.  Thankfully we will see a cold front that will work south on Thursday that will fire off a few scattered thunderstorms.

Thursday precip

This front will stall and lift back toward the north on Friday.  A second cold front will work in on Sunday and Monday with additional scattered thunderstorms.  This front should be able to work farther south and actually drop our temps down into the upper 80s because our ridge should work back toward the west.

Sunday 500

Because this ridge of high pressure works back toward the west, our temperatures will cool down just a bit.

Our pattern is still right on target as it should be as it slowly morphs from this current one into the new one by the 3rd week of September.  Now remember, we have been in the 49 day cycle since last July.  This 49 day cycle will still show itself for about 2 more months and maybe even a little longer.  However, our new cycle has already started and will get stronger over the next 2 months.  It is hard to see right now due to it being the summer and it is brand new.  I am continuing to watch it and pegging it down as it develops over the next month or so.  I will keep you updated on that.  Right now we will have to deal with a hot summer.  Because we will see this persistent ridge for July and August we will struggle to get a lot of rain with cold fronts very often this far south.  We will start to see a shift by mid to late August but until this we will stay steady.  The only other way to get much relief is a tropical system moving up from the Gulf of Mexico.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm to hot through the middle of the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Another cold front will try to sag south the second half of the week with scattered thunderstorms Wednesday through Saturday.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot temperatures return with mainly dry conditions.  A slight chances for a few thunderstorms late in the week but mainly dry.

July 10th-16th:  Hot and mainly dry with a few thunderstorms late in the week.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday evening quick blog: The heat continues. A few thunderstorms

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Good Wednesday evening!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been going pretty good but very busy.  I am in Austin all week at the AMS(American Meteorological Society) Weather Conference.  I have been on the national board for the past 4 years and take over as the national board chair later this year.  So it is very important that I am here.  I did want to post a quick little update on here of course but this isn’t going to be my normal blogs.

Expect the heat and the humidity to really stick around the rest of the week.  Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 90s with the heat index cranking in around 105-110.  This is dangerous heat and you need to watch yourself if you are going to be outside during the 2-6pm stretch.  Also watch the pets as well as they really get hot if they are outside.  We have very slight chances for a pop-up storm over the next couple of days with the daytime heating, but most of us will stay dry. The heat will return on Thursday.

highs

Most areas will go right back into the mid 90s with high humidity. Dew points will be right back into the mid 70s.

Dewpoints

When dew points are in the mid 70s we are extremely muggy. That is why most of us have heat indices in the 105-110 range. We don’t have a lot of changes due to this huge ridge of high pressure in place.

Thursday 500

This just allows the heat and humidity to pump in.

A cold front will try to sag in on Friday and Saturday, but it stalls out and quickly lifts right back toward the north.  So it really isn’t going to help our temperatures out much over the weekend.  I really don’t see much changes until about Tuesday when a cold front will sag south into KS and MO producing scattered thunderstorms and bringing in some cooler temperatures.

La Nina continues to get a little stronger and our new cycle continues to find itself.  Now remember, we are still in our old pattern until September and the 49 day cycle will slowly morph into the new one over the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will get stronger over the next couple of months and this will be our dominant cycle for the next year or so and really represent our weather for the fall, winter and spring.  This dominant ridge that continues to find us over the past couple of weeks with the heat and humidity across the central and southern plains isn’t going anywhere this summer.  Get used to it and if you want a nice green lawn, well you will have to do some serious watering by July and August as our rainfall will really start to cut off.  I will continue to go into this over the next few blogs.  For now I better get back

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

June 19th-25th:  Warm temperatures with a few thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  Warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week giving us scattered thunderstorms across the region.

July 3rd-9th:  A warm start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Mainly dry through the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Saturday AM Blog: The heat continues, but some thunderstorms. Also a look at the summer

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Good Saturday morning!  I hope you had a great work week and of course ready for the weekend.  I take a ton of vacation time during the summer months due to the weather being well boring.  However, it is going to pick up a bit over the next week or so with some action across the region.  I will though be off work for the 10 days and I am looking forward to it.  Of course, I never can get away from work and will be keeping you updated.

We are still rolling in our 49 day cycle that has been in place since last July.  However, the new cycle has also taken shape and is still setting but getting close to completing.  I have been watching the new cycle since about May 18th or so and it is getting stronger each and every day.  The old 49 day cycle will slowly die over the next few months as the new cycle continues to take over.  As this occurs, I will long range forecast off of the new cycle.  This new cycle is actually a longer cycle and will be in place of the next 14 months before it completely dies off.  I can actually forecast off of it now but want it to fully complete first.  This is exciting for me, lol.

I hope you have enjoyed the heat and humidity.  Get used to it, expect a hot and humid summer here in the central plains.  Lets look at what is going on right now.

500

We still have this huge ridge of high pressure giving us the heat and humidity.  However, one little weak wave that I circled in read that will fire a few thunderstorms over the weekend.  Highs will be up there over the weekend.

Saturday highs

However, we will see a few pop-up storms over the next couple of days.

Saturday precip

Much of the same for Sunday afternoon.

Sunday precip

Do you want to see what the summer will be like?

Next Saturday 500

See how the high pressure wants to continue to develop? UGH!  Hot and humid for the central plains!

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms at least through most of the week.  Temperatures will cool off just a bit toward the weekend.

June 19th-25th:  Warm temperatures with a few thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  Warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week giving us scattered thunderstorms across the region.

July 3rd-9th:  A warm start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Mainly dry through the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Tuesday Night Blog: Heat and humidity. Plus pattern update

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good as I am back at work today.  During the summer I take most of my vacation time as the weather greatly slows down here in the central plains.  Our weather really picks up late fall, winter and spring, so I don’t like to take any days off.  I work the rest of the week and then off next week as I head to Austin for the AMS weather conference.

Our weather has greatly slowed down this week after several days of rain over the past couple of weeks.  We actually need to dry out just a bit, but will need the rain again here in a few days.  We are still right on track with the Heady Pattern that has been in place since last September.  However, the cycle has already been changing over the past several weeks.  We are actually just about set with the new cycle that will be in place for about the next 12-13 months.  I will continue to study this over the next couple of months as the old cycle slowly dies.  We have now switched over to La Nina.  La Nina will now be in place for at least the next 10 months.

La Nina

I circled at the graph of La Nina now in place.  Lets look at what is going on right now for us.

Wednesday 500

You can see the Jet Stream is well to the north with just a weak wave that I circled across Colorado and western KS.  This will allow a few clouds to shoot across the plain states on Wednesday.  However, chances for showers are pretty low.  This ridge will be persistent over the next few days.  Look at Thursday.

Thursday 500

So the heat will kick in.  Look at highs on Wednesday.

Temps Wednesday

Also our dewpoints (humidity) will be rising.

Dewpoints

This means with highs near 90 the rest of the week, we will have heat indices even higher than that.  It will feel like summer.  Early next week we will start to see a few changes.

Sunday 500

We are looking at Sunday above, still the ridge in place but a wave will start to head in our directions.  This will give us scattered showers and thunderstorms through the first half of the week.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warm and humid with scattered thunderstorms at least through the first half of the week.  A few random storms pop back up by the weekend.

June 19th-25th:  Warm with some scattered thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  The heat kicks back in for the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances by the weekend.

June 26th-July 2nd:  Warm to hot week with an upper level wave hanging out most of the week giving us scattered thunderstorms across the region.

July 3rd-9th:  A warm start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Mainly dry through the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday June 1st Blog: More storms! New cycle digs

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Good Wednesday midday!  I hope you had a great and safe holiday weekend and got a chance to get outside and do something over the very warm and humid weekend.  We did have a lot of showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but most of the weekend was at least some what decent dodging storms.  I actually got down to Table Rock Lake for a couple of days.  I am a huge lake fan and love to get there when I can.

Have you noticed we have been fairly wet over the past 3 weeks?  It is system after system after system.  Well we are in the same pattern but in a different cycle.  The cycle has switched and it has taken the most active part of our last pattern and just thrown it at us over and over again.  Now without confusing you, we are still in the same 2015-2016 pattern and will be for the next few months.  But the new cycle that will be here for at least the next year has arrived and will get stronger and stronger over the next several months.  I will give you much more on this over the slow summer months.  I think this is interesting and sums up the past 7 or 8 months.  In Joplin we have had 9 severe weather events (we average 8-10 by June 10th) but haven’t had big tornado events because the storm systems have matured just west of us.  Look where the tornado watches have been this spring.

Tornadoes

What amazes me about this is this is the exact same spot that had very little if any snow during the winter.  Why?  All of the storm systems matured just to the west.  SAME PATTERN, incredible!

We don’t have to deal with any severe weather this week or lets say very little.  We will have scattered thunderstorms over the next few days.  We have a weak upper level low that will slowly move across the southern plains.

500 today

You can see this upper level low just west of Texas slowly working east.  It will give us scattered storms the rest of the week.  During the afternoon hours today, more thunderstorms will pop-up across the central and southern plains.  I am not expecting anything severe, but a few stronger storms are possible.  2pm

Here is a look at 2pm.  We will continue to see scattered thunderstorms through the evening hours.

9pm

Once we lose the heating of the day, thunderstorms will start to fall apart.  This will occur over the next few days as well.  Here is a look at Thursday afternoon.

Thursday precip

Much of the same on Friday.

Friday precip

Finally by Saturday, our wave slowly starts to work east and our rain chances start to decrease.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warm and nice to start the week with pretty good temperatures across the region.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday, besides that we look pretty good.

June 12th-18th:  Another warm week across the area with a few waves working through during the week.  We will have chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms through the week.  Temperatures heating up late in the week.

June 19th-25th:  A hot start to the week with a few thunderstorms by Tuesday that will cool us down for the middle of the week.  The rest of the week should be dry with great temperatures.

June 26th-July 2nd:  The heat returns with thunderstorm chances by the middle of the week.  As we see a couple waves work through, the chances for thunderstorms will last into the weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with a few thunderstorms to start the week, then hot and dry the rest of the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot with slight chances for storms to start the week.  Stay hot most of the week with a slight chance for storms by the weekend.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.