Archive: Jul 2016

Friday PM Blog: More Thunderstorms and heat! Plus a look down the road

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Good Friday afternoon.  I hope you are enjoying your Friday so far.  I have been running errands all morning and just got back home to do a little work before I head off to work.  I would like to get outside and do a couple things real quick as well.  If you know me, I like to squeeze about 15 things into about an hour if that is possible.  Now that is never possible but trust me I will always try, lol.

We have had more scattered showers and thunderstorms across the region this morning like we have had over the past few days.  We have had a front hanging out all week long with waves passing by.  That is why the central and southern plains have had rounds of showers and thunderstorms.  This has been a big switch compared to the heat and humidity we had over the past couple of weeks.  However, this all fits into our pattern and this is what we should be having right now.  The old pattern is still in place but dying out as the new pattern is slowly evolving.  The new cycle for that pattern is already in place and completely set.  The old cycle of 49 days is also still running but will slowly die over the next two months.  The new cycle will continue to get stronger over the next two months.  This is the great time of the year where you can use either the new or old cycle to long range forecast.  I actually don’t want to say the new cycle length, lol.  I have others that like to get that info from me so I am keeping it to myself for now.  However, it doesn’t effect any of you guys and gals.  So what will happen today and over the next few days?

Additional scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours for us today.

This Afternoon

Most of the scattered storms will be along and south of I-44.  The best chances will be in OK and AR.  I also expect another complex to roll along the front working east tonight.

SaturdayAM

So by morning, showers and thunderstorms from southern KS, SE KS, SW MO, OK and AR.  Some of these could be on the strong side with some additional heavy rains.  During the afternoon with the heating of the day, we will have pop-up storms again along and near the front.

Saturday PM

As we work into Sunday, this warm front will start to lift north and wash out.  However, still expect scattered thunderstorms along the front but farther north into eastern KS, western and central MO.

Sunday PM

Watch what happens by Monday.  Our big ridge of High pressure works back in and shoves the Jet Stream will north.  This allows the heat and humidity to really kick back in.

Monday 500

Look at the heat by Monday.

Monday temps

Ugh!!!!!!!!!  Your long range forecast is posted below based of the Heady Pattern.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.

August 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with the heat really kicking in by the middle of the week.  Hot temperatures stick around the rest of the week with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with slight chances for rain from Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with a few thunderstorms at the beginning of the week and then again late in the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A little cooler by the weekend with a few chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.

Tuesday PM Blog: At least some heat relief! More to come

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Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine is pretty good.  I am getting work done here at home over the past several hours and then I will head into work.  I am actually going to try to get outside for just a bit and do a few things before I head in today.  The temperatures again today aren’t so bad.  Well when you compare them to what we have seen over the past couple of weeks.  We continue to see a lot of clouds today with temperatures in the 80s across the region.  Our average highs are in the lower 90s for this time of the year.

We will have a few pop-up thunderstorms later today.  Most of these will be across central, NE OK and parts of AR.

This Afternoon

The best chances for thunderstorms will stay along the front across OK and AR.  Much of the same on Wednesday, a few scattered thunderstorms popping up.

Wednesday Evening

We will also watch our next wave dropping south across central and western KS.  This wave will sink in with a continued chance for a few thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

Friday precip

By late in the weekend, we will see the heat building back in which will stick around for next week with the humidity.

Sunday 500

Our old 49 day cycle is still plugging along as it will continue to for the next two months.  However, our new cycle is completely in place now and is slowly becoming the dominant cycle for the next 10-11 months or so.  I will continue to update you on this as this pattern comes to and end and we work into our new pattern here shortly.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms from Thursday through Saturday.

August 7th-13th:  A warm start to the week with the heat really kicking in by the middle of the week.  Hot temperatures stick around the rest of the week with slight chances for rain by the weekend.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with slight chances for rain from Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with a few thunderstorms at the beginning of the week and then again late in the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A little cooler by the weekend with a few chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.

Wednesday AM Blog: The heat!!!!! It will stick around. Long range pattern

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I haven’t gotten a ton of blogging in recently with my Colorado and Montana trips.  However, I have been back from the Montana trip for a couple of days now it was fantastic.  I am addicted to jumping on a 4-wheeler and finding a trail that takes me a couple thousand feet up a mountain.  We can’t find that around here.  Now I need to get some lake time in which I haven’t been doing over the past month or so.  I hope all of you are having a great week.  I am getting back in the swing of things and dealing with these hot and humid conditions.  Holy cow, when I was driving home and stopped for gas, the farther south I got the hotter and more humid it got.  I knew when I had made it into MO.  It was more of rolling out of the car saying “Ugh, we are back in MO”  However, MO is one of the most beautiful states around!  We are so  hot and humid due to the huge ridge of high pressure over us.

500 today

This is going to continue into the weekend.  However, the high will break down just a bit.

Sunday 500

Because our high will break down some, this will allow some scattered thunderstorms to work in for the begging of next week.

Sunday night precip

Scattered thunderstorms with this front will stick around until at least Tuesday or Wednesday.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid with slight chances for thunderstorms, especially the first half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Cycle is Changing! More storms

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great.  Yes I know, I am on vacation again.  You have to remember that I don’t take any days off during the fall, winter and spring as that is our busy season.  So when the summer comes along it is game on.  I am in Montana this week and it is amazing.  Check out some pics.

DSC_1167

DSC_1173

DSC_1176

You can see the thunderstorm rolling in as well.  We had to high tale it down the mountain, but a great time.  Temperatures here have been chilly.  Highs around 65 with lows around 40.  Lets just say it has been a shock to my body compared to what we have had back home.  So what will be going on back home.  More thunderstorms.  In fact a batch of thunderstorms will be working across KS & MO through the morning hours.  Most of this will stay north of I-44 but something to watch.  Here is a look at the mid morning hours.

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.31.46 AM

By late in the day, another round of thunderstorms will start to pop-up.

 

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.34.57 AM

Some of these could be on the strong side and possibly severe.  The main threat will be hail and wind and the timing will be from 4pm into the overnight hours as the storms slowly sink south into central OK and AR.  By Thursday morning they will die off and we will wait for yet another band to fire up on Thursday afternoon along our cold front that is sinking south.

Screen Shot 2016-07-13 at 12.35.26 AM

Again, some of these could be strong to severe along the state line of KS/OK and into SW MO and NW AR.  As we work into Thursday night, these storms will drive SE into central AR and should affect the Little Rock metro area.  The main threat with these storms will be wind and hail once again.

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Now that I can see the new cycle and I can either forecast off the new or the old 49 as they both work for the next couple of months.  However, this new cycle will be come dominant here in about a month or a month and a half.  This is actually really a amazing for me as 5 or 6 years ago I had to wait until about November to find the new cycle.  Over the past few years I have been working on my research and have closed that gap and have figured out a way to get the new cycle pegged down right as it develops which actually ended up being way earlier than what I used to think it did.  What this allows me to do is accurately forecast 2-3 months out 12 months a year which has never been done!  We are now in La Nina, it took its time getting into La Nina but now we are officially in La Nina.  This will influence that pattern when it starts the 3rd week of September.  It doesn’t drive the pattern but it does influence that pattern.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week as our upper level ridge builds right back in.  We will have very slight chances for thunderstorms late in the week.

July 24th- 30th:  A hot start to the week with temperatures decreasing just a bit for the middle of the week.  We will have slight chances for the thunderstorms to start the week.  Temperatures will heat right back up for the second half of the week with dry conditions.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

Friday Night Blog: More heat! More thunderstorms!

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I hope you have had a great week and probably a shorter week with the 4th of July holiday.  Mine has been pretty good.  It has flown right on by as I have been very busy with work since my Colorado road trip last week.  Plus have fun over the 4th of July holiday.  I was very busy last night with all of the severe weather we had here in SW MO and SE KS.  Now I am getting ready for my next road trip in Montana which I will keep you updated on.  However, we still have more thunderstorms that are going to affect us over the next couple of days.  This is actually a little strange for this time of the year.  We do get some complexes of thunderstorms in the summer months.  However, we usually don’t get much severe weather in the summer months.  More thunderstorms tonight across the central and southern plains.

Midnight

We have a weak little stationary front that will continue to fire off thunderstorms across OK and AR tonight.  Some of these could be on the strong to severe side in central OK.  These storms will try to work into SE KS and SW MO by midnight.  However, these are mainly just looking strong right now.  As we work through the overnight hours, the thunderstorms will shift a little farther north along the KS/OK state line and then drive east into SW MO by morning.

Morning

I expect to have scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours again across KS, OK, MO and AR like we have had over the past several mornings.  Then we will break out and have partly sunny skies with temperatures heating up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  Pop-up afternoon thunderstorms will fire again along this weak front.

Saturday afternoon

Some of these Saturday PM could also be on the strong side as well.  This is all caused by little weak waves that are rotating through.  The Jet stream is well north, but we have these weak waves that are firing off these storms.

Saturday 500

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Our old 49 day cycle will still show itself for a couple more months as it slowly dies and the new cycle will slowly get stronger and stronger.  We also have La Nina that is finally now after a little back and forth play getting stronger.  This will also help our new cycle get much stronger at a quicker pace.  Of course I will keep you updated on this.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week once again.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

July 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with the hot temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures to end the week with thunderstorms chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

July 24th- 30th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Hot and dry the second half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

 

Tuesday night blog: More heat with a few thunderstorms. Plus our new cycle

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope everyone had a great 4th!  Mine was pretty good.  I hit the lake on Saturday which was a great time.  Of course if you are a lake person, you know the lake is loaded on holidays.  On Sunday, my son and I had a great time blowing stuff up.  Of course the heat really kicked in for us today and will be sticking around for the next several days.  It is July and it is hot and humid.  We are used to this across the central US during the summer months but I guess do you ever really get used to it?  We are stuck in the heat right now due to the Jet being well north with a night area of high pressure over us.

Wednesday 500

However, with waves passing through the north central plains, we are getting thunderstorms diving south at times.  Late tonight and Wednesday morning, some scattered thunderstorms will dive farther south.

late tonight

Scattered thunderstorms into the morning hours and then hot and humid again.  Most areas will warm into the mid 90s with the heat index up around 110.

Wednesday temperaturesy

By late Friday, we finally get a cold front to briefly dig a little farther south with a few scattered thunderstorms.

Friday precip

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Our old 49 day cycle will still show itself for a couple more months as it slowly dies and the new cycle will slowly get stronger and stronger.  We also have La Nina that is finally now after a little back and forth play getting stronger.  This will also help our new cycle get much stronger at a quicker pace.  Of course I will keep you updated on this.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week once again.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

July 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with the hot temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures to end the week with thunderstorms chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

July 24th- 30th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Hot and dry the second half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

Saturday AM Blog: More storms but what about the holiday and July?

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Good early Saturday morning!  I wanted to get a blog in due to being out of town for a week.  I took the family to Colorado for a week which was a great family vacation.  I always think it is funny with Stacey who says yes I will help drive and 5 min later she is out cold.  So it is me on the open road with a 7 year trying to hang with his dad as he plays monster trucks on his on ipad (well my ipad, actually my work ipad, shh).  We went Denver, Vail to see my cousin for a few days and then off to Estes Park.  We went on a jeep tour that was actually pretty thrilling and white water rafting.  I think it is important to make my son do well you know manly stuff, ha ha.  Or at least get him experienced with pushing the limits that will let him know what his limits are.  I had a great time as I love anything with adventure.  Then comes the 12 hour drive home.  I was in the zone!  I was listening to a pod-cast of the capture of Bowe Bergdahl and I was at Salina before I knew it.  Stacey drove for a couple hours so I could relax and then I drove the home stretch.  So I am back for a few days as that was the warm-up before we drive to western Montana in a week, which is only 27 hours, piece of cake!

Well at least the temperatures haven’t been bad heading into the month of July and the holiday weekend.  However, we do have chances of thunderstorms.  Now we usually want chances of thunderstorms during the summer months, but not over the holiday weekend.  We will be watching batches of thunderstorms working through during the weekend.  This morning, thunderstorms will be working and passing by.  Lets look at mid morning as thunderstorms work through and pass NE.

9am precip

As a warm front pushes farther north during the afternoon, the heat and humidity kicks in and keeps most of the thunderstorms across NE KS, Northern MO.

late afternoon precip

Late tonight and into Sunday morning, a cold front will advance east and produce thunderstorms across the central plains.

Early Sunday morning

Thunderstorms across most of the region through Sunday morning.  As the cold front drags through Sunday afternoon, additional thunderstorms will pop up as well.

Sunday PM

However, it looks like cooler temperatures and less humidity will work in for the 4th.

I will updated you on the pattern here on the next blog tomorrow!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Cooler for the 4th, however the heat really kicks in from Tuesday through the rest of the week.

July 10th-16th:  Hot and mainly dry with a few thunderstorms late in the week.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.