Archive: Aug 2016

Tuesday Night/Wednesday Blog: More thunderstorms, but changes working in!

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope you have had a great day so far.  Mine has been pretty, busy but good.  Work has been crazy with computers issues.  Computers are amazing until they cross you and start messing up!

Scattered thunderstorms have been popping up over the past couple of days across the central plains.  We still have scattered thunderstorms tonight and we will see this again on Wednesday.  A cold front is shifting south across the central plains with some nice tropical moisture in place allowing thunderstorms to fire off.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will still be around in the morning hours, but pick up along the front during the afternoon.

Wednesday pm

I am not expecting any severe storms, but strong storms are definitely possible.  Also we could see some heavy amounts of rain with some of the thunderstorms that pop-up.  As the front sags south, it will take all of the thunderstorms with it.  You can see by Thursday morning, the thunderstorms shift into the southern plains.

Thursday AM

Also, take a look across the Gulf.  We have a tropical storm that will make landfall on Thursday afternoon with gusty winds and heavy rains.  Behind the cold front, we will see great weather with cooler temperatures and less humidity.  A nice stretch of dry weather lasting into the holiday weekend with a slow warming trend.

Lets see what is going above the surface.

Thursday 500

We are looking at Thursday.  We have warmer air building out to the west with cooler air in place across the central plains.  However, watch what happens by next Tuesday.

Tuesday

We have the warm air in place, but look at the Jet Stream diving out west.  This is interesting to see.  We are still in our old pattern but morphing into the new pattern which is completely in place here in about 1 month.  However, the new cycle(length between systems) is already in place.  We can see the morphing as the Jet Stream has shifted farther west compared to where it should be with the old pattern.  That interest me greatly as the new pattern takes shape.  Because the cycle is in place and has gone through a complete cycle, we just need to wait one more month for the pattern to set.  Then I can see how the two work together and get everything nailed down for fall, winter and spring.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Heating back up with temperatures fairly hot most of the week.  We will have chances for scattered storms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures cool down a bit for the weekend.

September 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in by the second half of the week.  Slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and then again late in the week.

September 18th-24th:  Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures working in through the middle of the week.  Warming up late in the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures work in for the middle of the week with a warming trend late in the week.  Rain chances again for Friday and Saturday.

October 2nd-8th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures for the second half of the week.  Most of the week should be on the dry side.

Tuesday Midday Blog: More thunderstorms, plus a look a our long range forecast.

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I hope your Tuesday is going great so far!  I have been working all morning long with multiple things.  I stay busy with work, blogs, working on my pattern which this is a very important time of the year.  Plus, I am have a lot of work to do with the AMS (American Meteorological Society) board that I am a part of. However, I enjoy every part of it and love to stay busy.

Let me start off with what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  Remember the new pattern sets up each and every year around the 3rd week of September.  Now when I say the pattern, this means how storm systems will react for the entire next year.  The Heady Pattern influences El Nino and La Nina.  We just came out of a fairly strong El Nino and now sit in a very weak to neutral La Nina.  It looks like we will stay in a neutral to weak La Nina through the fall, winter and spring months at this time.  However, this does need to be watched because the new pattern hasn’t set-up yet.  But this is the way it is looking at this time.

Now the recurring cycle inside the pattern has been at 49 days with this past pattern.  I can still see the 49 days pretty well, but you can definitely see the shift in the Jet Stream and how the 49 day cycle doesn’t fit near as well.

However, you can still see our old cycle in our old pattern.  Lets look at today.

500

You can see the systems rotating around each other in eastern Canada.  Plus the system dropping down in the western high plains.  Lets go back about 49-50 days to the 4th of July.

July 4th

The jet is flat due to the time of the year, but the same systems are there.  This is always interesting because we have two cycles going at once.

Our new cycle did start a while back and we have almost completed a full cycle.  Once this has occurred I will be able to really tell how the fall, winter and spring will set-up.  Then I will get even a better view on this once the new pattern sets up the 3rd week of September.  So this is a 3 step process and we are still in step one but about to move to step two.  As of right now here is what I see.

Fall:  Near average temperatures with above average rain continuing.

Winter:  Near average temperatures or just below.  At or just above average snow.  We average about 16″ of snow.

We do have more showers and thunderstorm working in this afternoon.  They will be scattered about across the region.

Afternoon

These will work NE during the evening hours.  The heat will kick in on Wednesday ahead of storm system number 2.

Wednesday

Showers and thunderstorms tomorrow from central KS into northern MO.  South of the front should shoot into the 90s with the heat index around 100 degrees.  As this front sags south on Thursday, so will the showers and thunderstorms.

Thursday evening

Pop-up thunderstorms will continue into Friday and Saturday.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot most of the week with pop-up thunderstorms each day.

September 4th-10th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures a little bit cooler on Thursday and Friday before we warm up a bit for the weekend.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week with a warming trend toward the weekend.  Rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  Warm and dry through the first half of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week but mainly dry.

Friday PM Blog: Thunderstorms, Cooler Temperatures, La Nina? Fall!

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good but very busy.  I am sorry I haven’t gotten this blog updated as much lately as I have been on some serious vacation this summer.  The summer is my vacation time as I don’t take any days off during the fall, winter and spring.  That is our busy season and I like to be around as I am a true weather nerd.

So I am trying to get some stuff done around the house today and also get some bills payed, ugh.  I hate paying bills like every other person on this planet.  At least the weather should be some what interesting as we work through the evening and overnight hours tonight.

So far it has turned out to be another nice day with highs back into the mid to upper 80s across the region.  We will have a few pop-up thunderstorms with the heating of the day.

Evening

During the evening hours, we will have a few random pop-up storms.  The bigger thunderstorms will be across central KS with the cold front that will start plowing east through the evening hours.  However, the few isolated storms that we have could cause a few issues for High School Football, but I don’t see it being a huge problem.  As the evening pushes on, we will see the line of showers and thunderstorms working in mainly after 10pm.  Some of these could be on the strong side.

Midnight

We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms through the overnight hours the will slowly push south into Arkansas by morning.  A cold front will drop through during the morning hours and push all of the showers and thunderstorms across the southern plains.  This will allow most of the central plains to clear out and cool down.

Saturday PM

Most of us will only have high temperatures into the upper 70s which is just crazy for the middle of August.

Saturday temperatures

Of course we will heat right back up next week.

Over the weekend I will go in-depth with what is going on with the Heady Pattern.  The old pattern is closing out as we are in the morphing stage from old to new which will be set by the 3rd week of September.  You can still see the old 49 day cycle that we have been in since July 10th of 2015.  However, the new cycle is also in place and has now become the dominant cycle and will be in place for about the next year.  This will and already has shown me how the fall, winter and spring will set up.  We are in a very weak La Nina to almost neutral which which will be interesting for the fall and winter.  The Heady Pattern influences La Nina and that is the key!  The cycle influences La Nina.  I think our new cycle length is interesting but very predicted at our current La Nina strength.  So I will go into great details about this and what it means over the weekend.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms most of the week.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Heating up for the first half of the week and mainly dry.  Warm the second half of the week with chances for thunderstorms.

September 4th-10th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler but mainly dry the rest of the week.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances.  Turning cooler for the middle of the week with a warming trend toward the weekend.  Rain chances return for Friday and Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  Warm and dry through the first half of the week.  A little cooler the second half of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler the rest of the week but mainly dry.

Friday PM Blog: More thunderstorms, but much cooler temperatures. Plus your long range Heady Pattern

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope you are having a great Friday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, except for fighting a migraine which is nothing new for me.  I fight these guys all the time and have my entire life.  However, I can type still so I am doing okay.

Wow, what a hot and humid week, ugh!  We do have pretty big changes moving in over the next few days.  We are still right on track with the Heady Pattern as we have been slowly morphing from the old to the new pattern which will be in  place here by the 3rd week of September.  However, the old cycle is becoming less and less dominant each week as the new cycle continues to get stronger which will here kill the old 49-50 day cycle over the next several weeks.  I have been long range forecasting off of a mix of the old and new and will do a complete switch to the new cycle here in a few weeks.

Well, it is Friday and that means the weekend is here!  I hope you have big plans to enjoy the weekend.  If you have kids, then most of your kids will start school this coming week.  My son Christian will be in 2nd grade with blows my mind.

Showers and thunderstorms have been rolling across the central plains with a cold front that is dipping south.  This has been the trend all summer with cold front digging pretty far south.  This usually doesn’t happen during the summer months but we will take it.  During the afternoon, we will continue to see scattered thunderstorms.

Early evening

We could see some heavy rains across the I-44 corridor from central MO stretching SW into central OK.  However, the overall average will be from 1/2-1″ of rain.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift south tonight.

Midnight

On Saturday, all of the showers and thunderstorms will stay south into AR, SE OK and south into TX.  The thunderstorms like to pop-up where the front is.

Saturday Pm

You can see what is causing all of this in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

500 Saturday

We have a wave dipping south across the central plains brings south some cooler air with moisture in place along the Gulf with some tropical moisture.  However, the front starts to lift back north on Monday.

Monday

Because the front lifts back north and stalls, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through most of nextt week.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day.

August 21st-27th:  Warm through most of the week with thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.  The middle of the week should be dry with a few scattered thunderstorms returning by the weekend.

August 28th-September 3rd:  A hot week with just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

September 4th-10th:  Hot most of the week with temperatures cooling down just a bit by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures settling in the rest of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The rest of the week will be on the dry side.

Wednesday AM: Another storm system with more summer storms

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Good Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine is going pretty good so far.  I have a busy day today.  I need to change the rear brakes on my SUV, and one of the breaks has a busted caliper.  Ugh, not looking forward to that.  However, I am going to make my son get outside in the heat and sweat with me and at least watch what I am doing.  I think it is good for him, it is better than playing mind craft on my ipad.

The fairly wet summer pattern continues which is common for a La Nina summer.  Remember we are still in the old Heady Pattern but we are switching to the new pattern right now.  Plus it is influenced by La Nina which will be the case for the next year.  This is why the wet weather has picked up and will continue to be the case across the central plains for the next several months.

Another hot and humid day today with a few PM isolated storms with some tropical moisture popping up.

Wednesday PM

This will continue into Thursday.  Hot and humid with a few pop-up PM storms.  However, on Friday a cold front starts to sag south.

Friday 500

You can see the dip or slight dip in the Jet Stream.  We consider that a dip this time of the year.  This will drag a cold front south.

Friday PM

As this front sags south this will give the entire central plains great chances for scattered thunderstorms on Friday afternoon, night and into Saturday.  Here is a look at Saturday.

Saturday PM

Rain chances will start to decrease on Sunday.  Make sure you check out my long range forecast out below.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day.

August 21st-27th:  Warm through most of the week with thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.  The middle of the week should be dry with a few scattered thunderstorms returning by the weekend.

August 28th-September 3rd:  A hot week with just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

September 4th-10th:  Hot most of the week with temperatures cooling down just a bit by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures settling in the rest of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The rest of the week will be on the dry side.

Wednesday late AM Blog: More heat! But some thunderstorms

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine is shaping up pretty decent as I have stayed busy with work and stuff at home.  I need to get some errands ran before I head into work today and hopefully a few things around the house.  There is never enough hours in the day!  I am sure a lot of you know how that feels.  My son is pumped up for school to start here in a couple of weeks which I think is nuts.  When I was a kid we didn’t start until after Labor Day.  Whatever floats his boat I guess.  Just as long as he knows we are still hitting the lake every weekend!

Well, we continue with the very hot and humid conditions across the region.  We only hit 100 degrees a couple of time last summer and never hit 100 the summer before.  However, we average hitting 100 about 3-5 times per summer.  In 2011 and 2012, we hit 100 over 30 times each summer.  Those were both very dry summers and when you don’t have much humidity you can easily pop above 100 degrees.  When you have a summer with a lot of humidity like this summer, it is very hard to get above 100.  I guess you have to pick your poison on that one.

We have had a few scattered thunderstorms across the region and central plains through the morning hours today.  These will slowly die off over the next few hours and allow the temperatures to spike into the upper 90s this afternoon.

Temperatures

We are still dominated by our big upper level  high that is producing the heat and humidity across the region.

500 mb

This keeps most of the thunderstorms north of the high pressure.  As the high breaks down just a bit toward the weekend, we will see the thunderstorms sink a little farther toward the south.  Lets jump into Friday.

Friday

We will see a front sagging south into north OK and southern MO that should produce a few scattered thunderstorms.  This will also continue into the weekend.  Take a look at Saturday.

Saturday

It won’t be a wash-out for these areas, but there will be scattered thunderstorms.

We are still right on track with the heady pattern.  The old cycle of 49-50 days is still rolling but fading away.  The new cycle continues to take shape and it really showings signs now of at least being equal to the old 49 day cycle and will now become the dominant cycle.  This is right on schedule with what should happen as it has now been in place for about 6 weeks.  I have a pretty good idea what the fall is looking like and starting to get a grasp on the winter and next spring.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm to hot start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  Hot and mainly dry the second half of the week.

August 14th-20th:  The week will start hot and dry with warm temperatures the second half of the week with chances of thunderstorms.

August 21st-27th:  Mainly a warm week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday and then again on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

August 28th-September 3rd:  Most of the week will be on the hot side with thunderstorm chances heading into the holiday weekend.

September 4th-10th:  Hot and mainly dry this week.