Archive: Sep 2016

Thursday midday blog: Updated long range forecast

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I hope your week is going great! Mine hasn’t been to bad.  I have been doing stuff around the house this morning and hoping to get some outside time in before I shoot off to work here in a bit.  The weather has been fantastic over the past few days.  We have had a nice dry stretch with great temperatures.  The older we get the faster time seems to move.  It always seems like we are flying through the months around here and with the temperatures the jump around so much in the fall and spring, it seems like we go from summer to winter.  So lets enjoy the great temperatures.

I did a video blog on our next storm system and what is to come over the next couple of weeks.  Also I am updated the long range forecast below.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Showers and thunderstorms for the middle of the week with temperatures cooling back down a bit for the weekend.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday through Wednesday.

October 16th-22nd:  The first half of the week will be on the mild side with rain chances Monday through Wednesday.  Cooler and dry the rest of the week.

October 23rd-29th: A slow warming trend through the week with most of the week on the dry side.

October 30th-November 5th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances Sunday through Wednesday.  Turning colder the rest of the week.

November 6th-12th:  A couple systems work through giving us rain chances Sunday through Thursday.  Mild temperatures the first half of the week with cooler temperatures on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

Heady Pattern Update: What is to come down the road.

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope your week has started off great!  Let me know what you want to see on this site.  I am thinking about links to great websites and of course expanding my pattern.  I have great ideas on what you can get across the country with the pattern.  I need to just activate it and lets get going. I hope you have a great week and enjoying the fantastic weather.  Here is my latest video-cast on what is going on, what will happen and the pattern of course.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  A cool to mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Rain chances return with our next system Tuesday through Friday.  Then cooling back down for the weekend.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Saturday.

October 16th-22nd:  Storm system rolls in on Sunday and Monday with rain chances.  Turns much colder through the middle of the week.  This could be our first frost!  Mild temperatures return for the late week with rain chances by the weekend.

October 23rd-29th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week dry with mild temperatures.

Thursday AM Blog: Latest heady pattern update

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Hey good Thursday morning!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good.  The weather has been boring as can be as we have our first day of fall today at 9:21am if you can believe it.  I can’t believe the summer has flown right on by.  It seems like the seasons are flying by faster and faster.

With the seasons flying by, we have a new Heady Pattern that is just about set.  I did a video for you that explains what is going on.

Of course I will keep you updated with all of the changes.  Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  A cool to mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Rain chances return with our next system on Friday and Saturday.

October 2nd-8th:  Another mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Saturday.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Saturday.

October 16th-22nd:  Storm system rolls in on Sunday and Monday with rain chances.  Turns much colder through the middle of the week.  This could be our first frost!  Mild temperatures return for the late week with rain chances by the weekend.

October 23rd-29th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week dry with mild temperatures.

Sunday night blog: Heat is back

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Good Sunday evening!  I hope you had a great weekend!  Mine was pretty good, but of course they always fly right on by.  I am getting stuff around and watching some of the Sunday Night Football game.  By my Chiefs stunk it up today.  I won’t even talk about them.  I am doing a very short blog as I need a few hours of sleep before I hit the road and drive to Chicago for a migraine check up.

The heat is back.  Summer as we know still has a few more days to go and it is going to feel like it.  Here is why.

500

Our Jet Stream which is getting stronger is well to our north and a big area of high pressure is in charge.  This means mainly hot and dry for this week.  We will see a few days of temps in the lower 90s and mainly dry conditions.  We will see changes by the weekend, until then this is what we get.

Off to bed!

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

September 25th-October 1st:  Mild temperatures to start the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Thursday and Saturday.

October 2nd-8th:  Another mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Saturday.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Saturday.

October 16th-22nd:  Storm system rolls in on Sunday and Monday with rain chances.  Turns much colder through the middle of the week.  This could be our first frost!  Mild temperatures return for the late week with rain chances by the weekend.

October 23rd-29th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week dry with mild temperatures.

Tuesday night/Wednesday AM Blog: More thunderstorms and lets look at the new pattern!

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I hope your week so far has been great!  Mine hasn’t been to bad.  I have been fighting my migraines the past couple of days but nothing to serious.  I am still on a high from my Chiefs on Sunday.  I was so frustrated I actually got up and left and went to the store to get salmon to cook on the grill.  Oh the salmon was amazing!  Nothing better than indirect heat on a weber charcoal grill.  But a true fan really never leaves.  So I had the radio on and listened and was back home by the beginning of the 4th with a 27-10 score.  I watch Alex Smith get picked off as a passed pounced off Maclin’s chest.  I knew at that point we were done.  However, San Diego misses a field goal and my Chiefs quickly go down and score a touchdown.  A few minutes later a field goal and have a chance to tie with about 2:00 left in the game.  The Chiefs quickly drive down and boom in the endzone.  27-27, lets go to OT.  Chiefs march down the field and Alex runs it in and tops off a 21 point comeback.  IT was absolutely amazing.  I don’t know why I am such a fan but games like that are amazing.

The weather has been pretty nice over the past few days.  We do have thunderstorm chances in the forecast, but nothing that is real widespread like we saw last week.  A cold front drops south Wednesday.  This will produce some afternoon scattered thunderstorms.

wednesday-pm

On Thursday, this front lifts back north, so more scattered thunderstorms.

thursday

Then the next wave rolls in on Friday and Saturday.

friday

I don’t think any of these are going to produce real heavy rains or any thing very widespread.  Just scattered thunderstorms with not much in the way of strong or severe thunderstorms.

Lets look at the pattern.  The new 2016-2017 Heady Pattern is almost set.  It will be completely set around September 20th.  Now the new cycle has already been cycling since gosh, I need to look but at least a little over 2 months.  The old 49 day cycle from last year has been completely dead for a good month.  So the new cycle is going strong and it is a little longer than last years cycle.  I will start showing you the exact cycle on upcoming blogs.  I wanted the pattern to set with a stronger Jet Stream here in the next week or so.  Lets look at a model forecast for next Thursday.  This model doesn’t mean much but you can see interesting things.

next-thursday-500

The Jet Stream is in purple and we have a split Jet.  One way north and the second dipping way south.  The one dipping way south shows me how storms system will like move in this pattern.  Plus, the next cycle we won’t have the split Jet which will allow this system over the Dakotas to dive much farther south into the SW.  Also in the green you can see out west how the Jet dives into the lower 48.  These are all interesting signs of the new pattern.  This is actually very exciting for the weather geek in me, ha ha.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm week with scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday.

September 25th-October 1st:  Mild temperatures to start the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Thursday and Saturday.

October 2nd-8th:  Another mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Saturday.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Saturday.

October 16th-22nd:  Storm system rolls in on Sunday and Monday with rain chances.  Turns much colder through the middle of the week.  This could be our first frost!  Mild temperatures return for the late week with rain chances by the weekend.

October 23rd-29th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week dry with mild temperatures.

Friday night blog: More thunderstorms! Cooler temperatures and a look at the long range forecast

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Good Friday night!  I hope you had a great work week.  Mine was super busy but in general it was a pretty good week.  My best friend sent me a weber grill that showed up at my house a couple days ago.  I need to get this puppy together and start grilling with charcoal.  He is a master at slow cooking with indirect heat and obviously thinks my propane cooking is subpar.  So we will give it a shot over the weekend.  Plus the weather is going to be amazing over the weekend behind this cold front that rolls through later tonight.  Also the Chiefs get going on Sunday.  I am a diehard fan and I am ready for yet another season of Chiefs football.  Of course they are going to the Super Bowl like I say every years at this time.  And of course I am let down every single year.

Thunderstorms with heavy rains will continue for us tonight.  Lets take a look.

tonight-rain

Behind this system, temperatures really cool down.  Look at the highs on Saturday.

saturday-highs

If that isn’t fall-like, check out the lows Saturday night.

sunday-lows

Not to bad!  How does this all fit into the Heady Pattern?  Well remember the new pattern will be completely set here in about 2 weeks.  The recurring cycle with-in the pattern is already cycling and has been cycling for a couple three months now.  Lets look at this system.

500

Look at the Jet Stream and the system in the northern plains and the one north of the Pacific NW.  Lets go back to July 13th.

july-13th

We have the same look here.  The Jet Stream is weaker, so it isn’t dipping as far south.  However, you can see the two systems roughly in the same spot.  I will continue to watch this and keep you updated as I figure out the fall and winter.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm week with scattered thunderstorms Tuesday through Saturday.

September 18th-24th:  A warm start to the week with a mild second half of the week.  Rain chances on Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Friday.

September 25th-October 1st:  Mild temperatures to start the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Thursday and Saturday.

October 2nd-8th:  Another mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Saturday.

October 9th-15:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  We will warm back up a bit toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, then again on Saturday.

October 16th-22nd:  Storm system rolls in on Sunday and Monday with rain chances.  Turns much colder through the middle of the week.  This could be our first frost!  Mild temperatures return for the late week with rain chances by the weekend.

October 23rd-29th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  The rest of the week dry with mild temperatures.

Tuesday night blog: More thunderstorms and a look at the pattern

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope you had a great holiday weekend and return to work or school.  My weekend was fantastic!  I hit the lake as I usually do on most weekends and especially holiday weekends.

Lake

The was great, but it did start to heat up yesterday.  We will stay on the hot side for the next couple of days until temperatures cool back down by the weekend.  However, thunderstorms will return.  A storm system works in tomorrow that will produce showers and thunderstorms for the central and southern plains Wednesday night through Saturday morning.  Lets break it down.  Here is a look at Wednesday night.

Wednesday night

You can see the scattered thunderstorms from north Texas stretching NE along I-44.  Bands of scattered thunderstorms will last into Thursday and Thursday night.  Lets jump into Thursday evening.

Thursday evening

Periods of thunderstorms continue Friday and Friday night.

We will clear out for the weekend with cooler temperatures working in.  Look at our overnight lows for Saturday night.

Saturday night lows

Remember the new pattern is completely set here in just a couple of weeks.  The new Heady Pattern will be in place for the next year.  However, in the pattern we have a recurring cycle that helps me forecast long range.  The cycle tells me how often storm systems repeat.  We have already gone through one full cycle of the new cycle.  This cycle is a little longer than last years 49 day cycle.  Lets look at this next storm system.  Here is Thursday.

Thursday 500

Lets go back to the middle of July.

July 12th

You can see the similar jets in both maps and I circled the same storm systems.  Lets continue to watch this and I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week.  We will warm right back up for the end of the week with thunderstorm chances returning.

September 18th-24th:  Cooling down through the first half of the week.  Temperatures will warm back up by the weekend.  However, rain chances will work in for Friday and Saturday.

September 25th-October 1st:  A mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Most of the week should be dry.

October 2nd-8th:  Another mild start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain  chances on Sunday, Monday and Saturday.