Archive: Oct 2016

Friday Evening Blog: Warm temperatures continue. When will we see a change. Long range forecast.

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Good Friday evening.  I hope you have had a fantastic week.  To be honest I am bored with this weather.   We have been warm, dry and boring.  Chances will come but when?  Ugh!!!!!!!!  Well not this weekend.  Check out the warm temperatures sticking around for Saturday.

saturday

However, I do see some changes down the road.  Here is my latest video-cast.  Check it out.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances working in from Tuesday through Thursday.  Mild the rest of the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with cooler temperatures by mid week.  Warming up by late week with rain chances.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Saturday PM Blog: Great temperatures! Plus a look down the road

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Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope you are enjoying your weekend so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I am relaxing here at home getting some work done.  My plans are to get outside and enjoy the great weather here shortly as the temperatures are fantastic for us today.  High temps today should be into the lower 70s.  Look at the highs for us today across the southern and central plains.

temps

Most area will warm into the upper 70s on Sunday.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with rain chances Tuesday night and Wednesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for Thursday, but mild temperatures once again for Friday and Saturday.

October 30th-November 5th: We will start the week mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning colder for the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up late in the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with our next storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday through Tuesday.  A second system works in on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with precip chances Wednesday through Friday. We will stay cool into the weekend.  I am going to say with this second system we should stay rain, but flurries aren’t out of the question.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Tuesday PM Blog: A few showers and your updated long range forecast

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Good Tuesday afternoon!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been getting some things done around the house today before I shoot off to work.  At least the weather is pretty nice and it isn’t near as windy as it has been over the the past few days.  We did have a cold front that slid through earlier this morning.  So we have north winds now which have cooled us off a few degrees and will give us a few scattered showers over the next 24 hours.

tonight-precip

Most of the showers will be south of I-44 tonight and they will be light.  As we have out front hanging around on Wednesday, a few scattered showers will still be possible.

wednesday-pm

Then the cooler air works in for Thursday and Friday.  By Friday morning, overnight lows could be down near 40.  Here is my latest video-cast on what I am expecting over the next several weeks.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures with slight chances for rain on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooler temperatures work in toward the weekend.

October 30th-November 5th: We will start the week mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning colder for the middle of the week.  Temperatures warm back up late in the week.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with our next storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday through Tuesday.  A second system works in on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with precip chances Wednesday through Friday. We will stay cool into the weekend.  I am going to say with this second system we should stay rain, but flurries aren’t out of the question.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Wednesday Late Morning Blog: Active Pattern! Stays active! Super long range forecast

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I hope you are having a great gloomy day so far.  We had some pretty good showers and thunderstorms earlier this morning.  The heaviest rains have pushed off toward the east, but still the showers are going to be sticking around through the day.  We have had pretty nice weather over the past few days.  Today is just going to be a gloomy wet day.

STORM SYSTEM OF THE DAY!

surface-map

You can see the fairly strong cold front diving south through the central and southern plains today.  This is really going to drop our temperatures over the next 24 hours.  Even through the heaviest rains have passed by, we will still have light scattered showers through the middle to late afternoon.  Here is a look at mid afternoon.

3pm-precip

Plus temperatures take a dive to near 40 degrees tonight.

temps-tonight

We have a lot going on with the new Heady Pattern. I love this time of the year.  The new pattern is set and the cycle has been set for a few months.  Take a look at my latest video-cast.

Make sure you check out your long range forecast out until Christmas below.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

 

Next Week:  Warming back up early in the week with rain chances on late Wednesday into Thursday. Turning colder Friday and Saturday.  This could be our first frost or freeze.

October 23rd-29th: A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Rain chances with our next system moving in for Friday and Saturday.

October 30th-November 5th:  Mild temperatures for Sunday and Halloween.  However, rain chances will continue with much colder temperatures working in for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Mild temperatures should return for the weekend.

November 6th-12th:  A mild start to the week with our next storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday through Tuesday.  A second system works in on Wednesday with cooler temperatures with precip chances Wednesday through Friday. We will stay cool into the weekend.  I am going to say with this second system we should stay rain, but flurries aren’t out of the question.

November 13th-19th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Our next storm system works in for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  This will also bring in much colder temperatures for the weekend.  We could see a rain/snow mix to end this system.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week that will last through the first half of the week.  The second half of the week should be mild with rain chances by Saturday.  Thanksgiving and Black Friday look nice at this time.

November 27th-December 3rd:  Our next system works in to start the week with dropping temperatures. Rain or snow chances with these two systems Sunday through Wednesday.  Cool temperatures stick around through the week.

December 4th-10th:  Mild with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Briefly cooling down after this system but not lasting long.  A second system with rain chances roll in Wednesday through Friday with mild temperatures.

December 11th-17th:  A mild start to the week with rain or snow chances by mid week with much colder temperatures working in for the second half of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A slow warming trend through the week with a storm system working in the second half of the week with rain chances through Christmas Eve.  However, if cold air can work in it could go to snow by Christmas Day!

Saturday PM Blog: Long Range Forecast! Winter is looking interesting!

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Good Saturday afternoon!  I hope your weekend is going great!  Mine is ok so far.  I have been fighting a migraine the past two days and I am trying to get this sucker under control.  I have daily migraines, meaning I at least have symptoms each day.  However, the past two days have been bad days, ugh.  I am going to try to eat something after I do this and hope that peps me up!

The weather is fantastic outside so I hope you get a chance to get out and enjoy it.  Just so you know I will start expanding on this website over the next couple of months so that you have all kinds of wonderful things you can find on here.  I am working on it!

Lets check in on Matthew.  He actually made a brief landfall.  However, the strongest part of the hurricane is always on the right side.  Now the right side has always been out to sea and that has been the best part of the storm.  Plus, it has been over shallow waters the past couple of days and it has been slowly weakening which is good news.

hurricane

In the purple, you can see where he has gone.  In the red, you can see where he will probably go.  He will weaken into a tropical storm but could actually turn back around and hit Florida if you can believe that.

For us, we will have great temperatures over the next couple of days.  I am watching our next system that will work in on Monday and Tuesday.  Check this system out.

tuesday-500

This is interesting.  This is the upper level map for Tuesday.  You can see the subtropical Jet to the south.  The main polar jet with the ridge across the pacific NW and then the system dipping into the central plains.  Now remember, we are in the new pattern.  However, the cycle (distance between systems) has been cycling for a few months now.  We have seen this before.  Lets go back to August 19th.

august-19th

Now the Jet was much weaker and we were in the old pattern at this time but the systems were coming in on schedule.  However, when we see this part of the pattern rolling through, this will give us arctic outbreaks.  We didn’t really see this last winter.  I see at least two arctic outbreaks per cycle.  That means we should get AT LEAST 4 ARCTIC OUT BREAKS THIS WINTER. I actually expect more than that.  This is what we need for winter storms to set up across the region.  I will show you another example of this in a second.  This system with give us some showers on late Tuesday and Wednesday.

precip-wedneady

Temperatures will briefly cool down behind this front, but we will warm right back up toward next weekend.  Lets jump into the following week and look at Monday the 17th. This is another example I wanted to show you.

next-monday

Now, the two L’s are coming in right on schedule.  However, look at the jet.  The old Jet with the old pattern would have brought them in into the Pacific NW.  The new Jet with the new pattern drives them into northern California.  The bottom line here is, we are in the same cycle as we have been in the past few month but a new pattern.  The new pattern is very promising for a much better winter.  The way I see this systems coming in will give us much better set-ups for winter storms.  I want to see how these systems track through October so I can see how they will track through the winter.  I know when they will be here, now I am figuring out what they will do.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

This week:  Warming up through the week with a few showers possible on Wednesday.

October 16th-22nd:  Warm with showers on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday with temperatures turning cooler for the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return for the weekend.

October 23rd-29th: A mild start to the week with a storm system working through with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  This will drop our temperatures off for Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return for the rest of the week with another system working in from Thursday through Saturday.  This will give us rain chances once again.

October 30th-November 5th:  Rain chances continue with another storm system through the middle of the week.  Much colder temperatures work in by the middle of the week.  We will slowly warm back up toward the weekend with rain chances returning for Saturday.

November 6th-12th:  Rain chances through the middle of the week with mild temperatures.  Cooler temperatures work right back in for the second half of the week.

November 13th-19th:  Mild through the first half of the week with cold temperatures working in for the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week with a slow warming trend through the week.  Most of the week will be dry until rain chances by Saturday.

Thursday AM Blog: More Storms, Hurricane, Heady Pattern long range forecast update

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Good Thursday morning!  Well I am still up, so it is actually Wednesday night for me.  I hope the week is great!  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  I am trying to get some work done as I binge Dexter on Netflix.  So, I am not working at the pace that I would like, lol.  Here is my latest video-cast on more storms, the hurricane and the pattern.  The Heady Pattern is getting very interesting.

 

#headypattern

#4stateweather

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Warming up through the week with a few showers possible on Wednesday.

October 16th-22nd:  Mild temperatures through the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and then again on Wednesday.

October 23rd-29th: We start the week on the mild side with warm temperatures working in by the middle of the week.  A storm system works in late in the week with rain chances from Thursday through Friday.

October 30th-November 5th:  Rain chances continue with another storm system through the middle of the week.  Much colder temperatures work in by the middle of the week.  We will slowly warm back up toward the weekend with rain chances returning for Saturday.

November 6th-12th:  Rain chances through the middle of the week with mild temperatures.  Cooler temperatures work right back in for the second half of the week.

November 13th-19th:  Mild through the first half of the week with cold temperatures working in for the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

November 20th-26th:  A cold start to the week with a slow warming trend through the week.  Most of the week will be dry until rain chances by Saturday.