Good Saturday afternoon! I hope you are having a great weekend so far! Mine has been pretty good. I got up this morning and did a few things around the house and then shot off to my sons basketball games. He had two back to back and then now back home doing a little work. I know it is great outside but I am actually thinking about a nice relaxing nap. That is the sign that I am getting older. When I want to take a nap on a Saturday late afternoon. However, I am going to do what I want to do, ha ha.
So what is going on with the Heady Pattern? Well lets look at what is going on with the next couple of days first. We have cooler air in place right now which is going to allow some chilly nights. We will drop all the way down near 40 degrees tonight in a lot of places.
High temperatures look great again tomorrow.
We do have a weak wave that will roll in on Monday.
This wave should produce a few scattered showers for Monday and Tuesday.
However, lets start looking down the road. We know the new 2016-2017 Heady Pattern is completely set. The pattern sets up each and every year from the late summer and into the fall. The pattern starts to set up in August, but the majority of the set-up occurs from September 21st through October 15th. Now, the recurring cycle with-in the pattern sets up way ahead of the pattern. The cycle sets up as early as May or as late as August. It just depends on what is going on that year. I have been testing this over the past 5 years and there is a 2-3 day shrink or stretch in the cycle length during the prime set-up of the pattern (September 21st-October 15th) depending on La Nina or El Nino. Now that I have this tested, and proven, thankfully I can get that cycle down during the summer months and know how to adjust it during the fall. This is amazing and exciting for me! For you, all you want to know is what is the forecast going to do, lol. So lets look at next weekend.
This is the upper level map for next Saturday. There is a nice big ridge across the western half of the country with a storm system in the eastern half of the country. The storm system in the eastern half of the country will funnel cooler air south across the central plains. This is the same set-up we had back on September 22nd, but a much weaker version just do to the weaker jet stream.
So you can see how long of a cycle we are in, also the shrink in the cycle that takes place at this moment. Lets go two weeks out.
We are the weekend ahead of Thanksgiving now. The pattern is greatly picking up and the Jet Stream is getting much stronger. The cold air is pushing south with waves working across the country pretty quickly. This is the part of the pattern that we were in around October 1st.
This is a very odd pattern, as they all seem to be every year. However, we should get some systems in here to give us a few snowstorms during the winter months. Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
This week: Mild temperatures through the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday. Turning cooler on Friday and Saturday.
November 13th-19th: A mild start to the week with rain chances late Sunday and Monday. Turning much colder for the rest of the week.
November 20th-26th: A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returing by Monday with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thanksgiving. Cooler temperatures work in on Black Friday with rain chances sticking around with temperatures dropping more for the holiday weekend.
November 27th-December 3rd: A cold start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week. Rain chances on Tuesday and Wensday with cooler temperatures working in for Thursday. Rain or snow chances for Thursday with cold temperatures the rest of the week.
December 4th-10th: The first half of the week should be mild with rain chances on Wednesday. Cooler temperatures the rest of the week with rain or snow chances on Thursday and Friday.
December 11th-17th: Mainly a cool and dry week with just slight chances for rain or snow on Thursday.
December 18th-Christmas Eve: Mainly mild through the week with rain chances from Wednesday into Christmas. If we can get some arctic air to plunge south we may have to worry about some icy areas. I will watch this.
DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS