Archive: Dec 2016

Thursday Night Blog: Big changes down the road! Long range forecast

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I hope your holidays have been great and are gearing up for the New Year.  It is funny as you get older you don’t care about going out and tearing up the town like you used to in your 20s.  A nice dinner with friends and hanging out sounds pretty good to me.  I can’t believe it is almost 2017!  Where did 2005 go?  It is amazing how the years pick up as you get older.  Spring will be here soon and sling shot us into summer.  Before we know it we will be buying pumpkins and I will be writing I can’t believe it is almost 2018.

Well, the weather has been fairly calm over the past several days.  Lets look at our next system rolling in.

You can see the system across the pacific NW.  This will produce snow once again across western Montana who has been hit pretty hard over the past couple of weeks.  This system will be a weak version once it makes it here on Saturday.

Any moisture with this system really won’t get going until the front rolls through.  This means we will just see some clouds and briefly cool down for about 12-18 hours and that is about it.  However, that wonderful arctic air is lingering and ready to plow back to the south.  Lets jump into next Tuesday.

You can see the Jet Stream in purple take a huge dip from western Canada and curls up through the southern plains.  This allows that cold arctic air to slide south across the region.  Now one cycle ago in early November, we didn’t have the arctic air, but we had the same set-up and that shows that we are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  Look at the colder air crashing south by Tuesday and Wednesday.

The cold arctic air will stick around the rest of the week.  We will have a wave that slides in next Friday and Saturday.  With the cold air in place this will give us some snow chances that I will keep my eyes on.  By the following week, the arctic air will go back to retreating and then sliding back south as storm systems roll in.  Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Arctic air returns by Tuesday with very slight chances for a shower or snow shower.  The arctic air sticks for the rest of the week with snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  A cold start to the week with our next storm system rolling in by Tuesday.  We will warm up a bit ahead of the storm system giving us rain and snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cold air returns for the rest of the week.

January 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  If we can get any colder air on the backside of the system, we could have some wintry weather to end the system.  Cold the rest of the week, but warming up for Saturday.

January 22nd28th:  Rain and snow chances return from Sunday through Tuesday.  Another system with rain chances for Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Rain and snow chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  Mainly a cold week with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Another system on Friday with slight chances for rain or snow.

February 12th-18th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with a warm up late in the week with rain chances on Thursday and possible snow chances on Friday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with a warm up by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday Evening Blog: A look at Christmas and our long range forecast!

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Good evening!  I hope your week is going great so far!  Hopefully you have gotten most of your shopping done and ready for the holiday weekend.  I still have a ways to go, but I am knocking it out.  I think the hardest part for me is when I do get the gifts is wrapping them.  I am the worst wrapper around, but they get wrapped.  I don’t think my 7 year cares to much anyways.

At least the temperatures are warming up around here.  We have been so cold and finally we are back to where we should be for this time of the year.  So lets get to what is going to happen over the next couple of weeks and what is going on with the Heady Pattern.

Lets jump to Thursday.  Lets look at the pattern.  Here is the upper level flow and our next storm system.

You can see the Jet Stream is pretty flat, it should be for this part of the pattern.  Also notice the LOW across Baja California.  That will kick out and give us some rain chances on Friday.  Lets go back to October 28th.  We had a weaker set-up, but the same thing.

Again we had a pretty flat jet with our storm systems on the coasts.  Also you can see the same LOW over California that kicks out.  Now lets jump ahead to Christmas Day.

We have a much stronger wave that kicks out into the central plains.  However, due to the track of the wave it will push into the northern plains.  But a few interesting things here.  It has a neg. tilt, meaning the storm leans back toward the NW.  Because of this, in the spring this is a major severe weather set-up and even on Christmas Day we could get some pretty good storms.  This is the same storm we had around Halloween.  However, the Jet Stream was much weaker and it just couldn’t produce a monster like this.  Back then we just had a weak wave but it was still there.

Due to the weaker Jet, everything was shifted a little farther north, but you can see the two waves kicking out the exact same way.  So what will this do for us?

Well we should have some pretty strong thunderstorms on Christmas afternoon.  Crazy enough, but not snow but thunderstorms.  I will watch all of this over the next few days.  Our next system after this is down the road for next Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Here is a look at next Thursday.

This isn’t a very strong system, but could give us some rain through that period.  But we do need to watch the temperatures.  Arctic air will be close by and we need to see if it stays just north or wants to head south a bit.

Besides this I don’t see a lot of action until around January 12th.  Then things will get going again!  Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Up and down temperatures through the week with rain chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

January 1st-8th:  This will be mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on the 1st with our system working out.  Most of the week should be dry with rain chances returning by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning by the middle of the week.  Also rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday as a system works through the area.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with slight chances for rain or snow on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with weak waves passing by.  Warming up for the weekend with slight chances for rain returning.

January 22nd28th:  Mild with rain on Sunday, then cold and dry through most of the week until our next storm system works in.  Cool with rain or snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  Cool with rain or snow chances on Sunday, then staying cold through the week with slight chances for snow on Tuesday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  A cold and dry start to the week with mild temperatures by the second half of the week.  Rain chances for Thursday and Friday.  As the colder air works in chances for snow on Saturday.

February 12th-18th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures returning for the middle of the week.  Rain chances for Thursday through Saturday.

Updated Blog: More storm systems moving in, plus your long range forecast.

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Good Friday afternoon!  I hope your week has been great!  I have been in the hospital the past few days in Chicago getting migraine treatment.  So I guess my week could be going a little better, lol.  The main goal here is to break up the cycle of my daily migraines and in a sense reset my computer (brain).  However, I have been just sicker than a dog the past few days due to the IV treatments that they have been giving me.  I did make it through the Chiefs game last night and I am super proud of my team for making it to first place in the AFC West.  Now we just need to hold it.  I will be up here for many more days and when the doctors feel like I have made some progress, then I get to go home.  So I am trying to get some work done from here.  However, check this out.  A storm system is rolling through starting tomorrow through Monday and the Chicago area is going to pick up some snow.  If you know me I love snow.  Looks like a good 6-10″ is likely.  Heck yeah!

So yeah, I will take that.  I haven’t seen potentially this much snow in a few years with our lack of bigger snows over the past few winters in Joplin.  However, the cold temperatures have been in place across the central and southern plains over this past week.  Looks like another cold night tonight.

At least temperatures warm up some tomorrow.

Plus another storm system rolls in on Sunday.  However we should be on the rain side.

You can see the rain increasing on Saturday night.  By noon on Sunday, it continues to pick up.

Most of the cold rain should exit by Sunday evening.

Our next storm system down the road should move in next Wednesday.  Lets take a look.

You can see the big storm system in southern Canada in Yellow.  Then we have the wave rolling through right on top of us.  Lets go back to October 20th about 55 days prior.  The Jet Stream was much weaker but the same part of the pattern.

We had that same wave dipping through.  This time around we need to see how much moisture we have and how cold will we be.

As of right now we have a chance for a wintry mix.  So I will keep my eyes on this over the next several days.  Remember my long range forecast is below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Rain chances on Sunday and then cool through most of the week.  A wintry mix possible on Wednesday with cold temperatures returning across the area.  Cold temperatures stick around through the weekend.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  A quick warm up right at the beginning of the week ahead of our next storm system.  Cool temperatures return on Monday with rain or snow chances.  Staying cool through Wednesday with mild temperatures returning into Christmas Eve.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  The first half of the week will be cold and dry.  Mild with rain chances on Thursday with colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday with slight chances for snow.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Snow chances increasing, plus a look down the road.

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Good early Wednesday morning!  I hope your week is going great!  I will be out of town for a while today which I explain below in the video.  However, will have a lot of time to work on the long range blog and forecasts.  We have a storm system or very weak one working in today with a little bit of snow.  Here is my latest video blog.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

December 11th-17th:  Cool with rain chances on Sunday, then staying dry through Tuesday.  Cool with rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday with cold temperatures for the rest of the week.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with mainly dry condition through the week.  We will cool back down for Christmas Eve.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  The first half of the week will be cold and dry.  Mild with rain chances on Thursday with colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday with slight chances for snow.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.

Friday PM Blog: Several waves moving in. Plus your long range forecast.

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Good afternoon!  I hope you have had a great week!  Of course it is almost the weekend and I am sure everyone is ready for Saturday and Sunday.  I actually need to get a little bit of shopping done as I will be out of town for the next couple of weeks.  However, I will still be here updating you.  Here is my latest video-blog to let you know what is moving in and where we are in the pattern.

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Rain chances on Monday, with a few left over showers Tuesday and Wednesday.  As the colder air works in we could see a few snow showers by Wednesday.  Much colder for the rest of the week.  Rain and snow chances return for the weekend.

December 11th-17th:  Cold with slight chances for snow on Sunday.  Staying cold through the week with rain chances on Wednesday with some snow chances on Thursday.

December 18th-Christmas Eve:  Mild temperatures return this week with mainly dry condition through the week.  We will cool back down for Christmas Eve.

December 26th-New Years Eve:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cold and dry the rest of the week.

January 1st-8th:  A mild start to the week with slight chances for rain on Monday.  Then cold temperatures work in with slight chances for snow by Saturday.

January 9th-14th:  The first half of the week will be cold and dry.  Mild with rain chances on Thursday with colder temperatures for Friday and Saturday with slight chances for snow.

January 15th-21st:  Another cool week with rain or snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.