Archive: Jan 2017

Latest long range forecast: When are we going to see snow?

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Good Thursday night!  I hope your week has been great so far.  Mine has been busy but pretty good.  The weather has been gloomy and cold the past few days, but we will look  up here soon.  Actually the weather has been boring as of late and will actually stay that way for at least another week.  Then we should start to see some changes.  Let me show you what is going on.

Here is what is going on right now.  Look at the area of high pressure out to our west.  This is forcing the Jet Stream up north into western Canada and forcing it back south across the central plains.  This allow us to stay cold, but at the same time it is blocking any big systems to work in.  This is the same part of the pattern that we have on December 1st, 57 days earlier.

Back on December 1st, the High pressure was pushed a little farther west, but still we had the cold temperatures in place then like now.  High will start to warm a little bit for us over the next couple days into the lower 40s.  This is still below normal but looking better.

So lets jump down the road into Superbowl weekend.

A system works through next Saturday and Sunday.  As of now it looks like mainly rain but needs to be watched.

However, the next week on the 7th and 8th, is when we should get another blast of cold air that could be arctic.

You can see the huge system across southern Canada.  This is the same system that gave us the arctic blast on December 11th.

If we can get the arctic air, this is what provide us with better chances for winter weather for the rest of the month as we renter this stretch of the pattern.  However, the bottom line is we aren’t in the best pattern again this winter to get big winter storms.  We will see a few chances for winter weather in February, and then we will be done.  I think we have three chances for a storm in February and that is it.

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with the second half of the week cooling down just a bit.  We should be on the dry side most of the week until a storm system with rain chances work in on Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain or snow on Sunday.  Staying cold through the week with slight chances for rain or snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Dry the rest of the week with cool temperatures.

February 12th-18th:  Mild with rain chances again on Sunday and Monday.  With colder air working in, we could see a little bit of snow for Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures warm right back up and stay mild into the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.

Wednesday Night/Thursday AM Blog: When is our next chance for snow? Plus super long range forecast.

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Good Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  I hope your week is going great!  Mine has been pretty good so far.  I am always busy with work stuff, so everyday is jammed pack it seems.  I did get a lot done around the house today which is always a plus.  Also the temperatures were much warmer today, which is nice.  We will stay in general above normal for the next week with just a few hiccups.  We do have several storm system which will be affecting us over the next couple of weeks.  We just had the ice storm this past weekend and now we have little weak waves over us.  Lets take a look.

These will give us a few showers over the next couple of days, but most of the rain will stay south of the area.  However, by the weekend a stronger system works in.

You can see the strong system to our south on Sunday.  This is a classic set-up for a great snowstorm.  However, if you look to our north, there is another Low pressure.  All of the cold air wraps around it and doesn’t allow the cold air to dive deep into the central plains.  The end result is this will be a rain system.

Lets move to next Tuesday and Wednesday.

Look at the huge storm system across the central plains.  This is right on schedule with the Heady Pattern.  We have been sitting at about 56-57 day cycle since the summer time.  Lets go back to the last time this system rolled through.  Here is a look at November 29th.

This is a closer look but clearly the same system rolling back through.  Again like in November, I think this will mainly track north of us.  Meaning we will most likely see rain with colder temperatures plunging south behind it.

Check out below, I have our long range forecast posted through March.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start to the week with rain chances increasing late Tuesday and into Wednesday.  With the colder air working in on Thursday, we could see a few snow showers.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

January 29th-February 4th:  Cold temperatures stick around with a few weak waves rolling through the first have of the week.  This will give us some rain and snow chances from Sunday through Wednesday.  Cold temperatures stick around the rest of the week.

February 5th-11th:  Mild temperatures with rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder air works right back in for the rest of the week.  We will start to warm back up for the weekend.

February 12th-18th:  Mild with rain chances again on Sunday and Monday.  With colder air working in, we could see a little bit of snow for Valentine’s Day.  Temperatures warm right back up and stay mild into the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then cold for the rest of the week.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.

Monday Morning: Storm systems to watch, especially late this week!

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Hey, good Monday morning.  I hope you ended up having a great weekend.  Mine was pretty good!  I hung out with my son all weekend and also got a lot done around the house.  It amazes me how fast the weekends fly right on by.   So back to reality, it is Monday!

After these bitterly cold temperatures, we have slowly started warming up over the past few days.  This trend will continue over the next few days with three waves to watch over the next week.  Here is my latest video-cast on what is moving in.  Also, where are we at in the Heady Pattern.

 

Don’t forget!  My long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cool through most of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  Warming up for the weekend ahead of our next bigger system.

January 22nd-28th:  Rain and snow chances return from Sunday through Tuesday.  Another system with rain chances for Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Rain and snow chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  Mainly a cold week with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Another system on Friday with slight chances for rain or snow.

February 12th-18th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with a warm up late in the week with rain chances on Thursday and possible snow chances on Friday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with a warm up by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Wednesday AM Blog: Arctic air, some snow and your long range forecast!

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Good Wednesday morning!  I hope your having a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good, just flying right on by as most of them do.  I am hoping to have a nice productive morning and get a lot done before I head off to work this afternoon.  Unfortunately it is so cold across the area.  My dog didn’t even want to go out this morning.  The cold arctic air is going to be sticking around for the next several days.  Let me show what is going on for us over the next few days and what is to come.  Here is a look at the upper levels with our next wave rolling through.

We are looking at the Jet Stream in purple with the cold arctic air slamming south.  This is the same part of the pattern we had in early November.  I put a weak “L” showing our next wave.  This will drive even colder air south over the next two days and a little light snow.  We will have a band of light snow just north of us later tonight.

Here is a look at shortly after midnight tonight.   You can see the light snow spreading across the I-70 corridor.  This will try to sneak SE through the overnight hours.  By the morning hours, light snow will spread as far south as the I-44 corridor.

However, this will be light and quickly push out of here by late morning.

We could still see a few snow showers during the afternoon but it doesn’t look like a big deal.  Snowfall amounts will be the highest north of us.

South of I-44, we should only have a dusting or so.  As you work farther north in our viewing area, we should have a dusting to 1/2″  Our northern counties and towns, Nevada to Ft. Scott may pick up an isolated 1″ of snow.  As you can see this is a very small light event with the heaviest snows staying north of the area.

I really don’t see much in the way snowstorms heading toward us over the next couple of weeks.  We are just in a bad part of the pattern.  Let me show you why.

Look at what happens next week.  The cold arctic air shifts east and we get under a ridge of high pressure allowing our temperatures to warm right back up.  I really don’t see any changes until the following week as we fall back into the mid to late November version of the pattern.  Here is a look at November 17th.

Once this part of the pattern returns, we will get stronger storms systems working into the area.  If we can get some arctic air,  we will have chances for some bigger wintry weather events.

Long range forecast is below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warming back up with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with a wave working through.  A second wave, with cooler temperatures works through on Thursday and Friday with rain chances.

January 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with our next wave working through.  If we can get a little cooler air on the back side of the system, we could have a little wintry weather.  Staying cool and dry the rest of the week until rain chances return for the weekend.

January 22nd-28th:  Rain and snow chances return from Sunday through Tuesday.  Another system with rain chances for Friday and Saturday.

January 29th-February 4th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Rain and snow chances return on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

February 5th-11th:  Mainly a cold week with slight chances for snow on Monday.  Another system on Friday with slight chances for rain or snow.

February 12th-18th:  The first half of the week will be mainly cold with a warm up late in the week with rain chances on Thursday and possible snow chances on Friday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with a warm up by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.