Archive: Feb 2017

Monday Night Blog: Next storm systems and our long range forecast!

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Good Monday night!  I hope your weekend was fantastic!  Mine was pretty good.  I hung out with my boy and did a ton around the house.  I have been repainting the house.  Well, I have been painting hallways and bedrooms and touching up a lot of spots through the family room and kitchen that needed to seriously be touched up.  However, I think it is look pretty good.  I can’t wait for the nice spring weekends so I can get outside and do some seriously landscaping and I want to build a patio that I have in mind.  I love doing projects!

The temperatures were great today and will be again for us on Tuesday.  However, we do have changes rolling in.  Let me know show you what is going on.

In the purple is the Jet Stream.  I also in red circled our wave rolling through over the next 24 hours.  Now remember, we are in a 57 day cycle.  So if you go back 57 days we had this same system working through.  The difference is we had some blocking to the north which allowed cold Canadian and Arctic air to dive south.

The wave is in the same spot, but we just aren’t getting the blocking this time around.  This is similar to what we had two cycles ago in November.  The end result will be a fast moving system with a few scattered thunderstorms.

During the afternoon, we could have a few random pop-up storms, but the better shot will hold off until Tuesday night.

We won’t have many storms that pop-up late evening and during the overnight hours.  However, the ones that do could be on the strong side with a low severe threat in our area.  This is something I will watch through the day and see how it all comes together.

We will see a couple dry systems pass through later this week, but rain chances will hold off until next Sunday and Monday.

Now, we really aren’t going to have to wait for severe weather season.  We just haven’t had a winter at all and the Gulf of Mexico is warm.  Due to the temperatures not dropping off much this winter, we will cruise right into severe weather season.

My First Take:  We aren’t going to have event after event.  Meaning I think we will have about average severe weather events which usually is in the 8-12 range of events in a severe weather season.  However, the ones we do get could be on the very powerful side.  So that is something I want to dig into more on my next few blogs.

Gary Lezak (Chief Meteorologist KSHB(NBC) in Kansas City) and I have been working on a business together for a while now.  Check out weather2020.com we have our long range pattern now built into a model where you can plug in any zip code and get a specific forecast months in advance.  It is pretty cool!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with thunderstorm chances late Sunday and into Monday.  Briefly cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures right back in for the rest of the week.  Rain chances again late Thursday through Saturday AM.

March 12th-18th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures work in with this system and leftover showers for Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return late in the week with thunderstorm chances for the weekend.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

March 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and rain on Monday.  Another fairly strong system moves in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe.  Cooling down for the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Thursday Evening: Changes moving in. Look at the pattern. Will we have anymore snow?

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Good Thursday evening!  I hope you have enjoyed the great weather the past few days.  I have been way under the weather and just getting into work today was a tough chore for me.  So, I have missed out on the great temperatures.  Much colder temperatures are working in over the next few days.  Let me show you what is going on with our next few storm systems.

Most of the moisture is going to stay north of us.  However, after midnight our cold front will roll through and start dropping our temperatures.  Look at the snow up north!  I would love to have some of that.  Look how much they are going to get.

For the second winter in a row we have been in a very bad pattern for winter weather.  The patterns have been fairly active, but we have really had a lack of arctic air.  We had a few blasts back in December and January, but we just can’t get it to slide south.  In Joplin, we have had 2.5″ of snow and about 3/4″ of ice.  We average 16″ per season.  I knew we would be below average this winter, but I thought we could at least get 10″.  My forecast was for 10-15″ and we aren’t going to make it.  We have only had 4.5″ over the past two seasons.  There are a few systems that we may get some winter weather (not a great chance) over the next two and a half weeks.  After that we are going to roar into severe weather season.  Instead of an April start, it should be the second half of March.  Here is where we are at in the pattern.  We are on a 57 day cycle this year and have been since early August.  Here is a look at our next system on Sunday.

I put the Jet Stream on here in purple and L’s where the systems are.  You can see the on top of us is Sunday’s, then the next one would be Tuesday’s.  Lets go back 57 days to December 31st.

These two maps are almost spot on.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cooler week, but not bad.  We will watch rain chances on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday with the next system.  Another system will roll in with rain chances on Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with 3 fast moving systems with rain chances.  Rain chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.  Temperatures will warm up a bit the second half of the week.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Friday AM Blog: Right on track with the Heady Pattern. Next few systems!

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Good Friday morning!  I hope your week is going fantastic!  Mine has been pretty good, but super busy.  I am ready for the weekend as I think most people usually are.  Plus we are going to see our second great weather weekend in a row.  That is very hard to say in the month of February.  This has been a very interesting winter.  In Joplin, we average 16″ of snow in a season.  Last year we had a record low of 2″ and this season so far we are at 2.5″.  That is a total of 4.5″ when we should be at 32″.  That is crazy!  Again this year we are just in a bad pattern.  We haven’t been able to get much arctic air and we haven’t had a ton of storm systems.  This highly worries me as we work into late spring and summer.  Could we be heading toward drought conditions for the summer.  I am going to dig into this and our severe weather outlook for the spring here shortly.

We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We continue this years cycle at about 56-57 days.  This is the same cycle that we have been in since late July.  That means this cycle will be shifting once again here in about 5 months.  Take a look at what we are seeing for today.

We have a weak wave across Texas.  This will give us clouds over the next couple days and maybe a random showers.  Look at the system off the California coast.  That is a bigger system that will move in on Monday and Tuesday.  First off, lets look at Saturday.

You can see most of the showers stay SE of us on Saturday.  However, just close enough we could see a random showers.  Look out west.  California is getting rocked once again.  They have thankfully gotten a lot of rain lately.  That is the system that gives us rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Here is a look at Monday.

It will stay decently active from this point on.  Our next system, that again looks like mainly rain will roll in on Thursday and Friday.  Here is a look at Friday.

After this point, we could see the arctic trying to return for a short period of time.  Lets see how it falls in place.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying mild most of the week with rain chances returning late Thursday, Friday and some showers on Saturday.

February 26th-March 4th:  A much colder week with rain chances returning for Monday and Tuesday.  Cool the rest of the week with rain chances returning for the weekend.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain chances on Wednesday.  Warming up for the weekend.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Friday Morning: Big changes the next couple of days. Updated long range forecast!

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Good Friday morning!  I am in serious blog mode pumping them out this morning.  It is time for me to get everything back on track!  I am so sick of this weather  pattern.  Gary Lezak(Chief in KC) talk all year long about I hope we get snow this winter.  The past two winters have just killed us.  We look at the pattern we are in and say “well maybe next year”.  It is a killer to be in these type of patterns.  So what is coming up?  Here is my latest video-blog.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Temperatures near average through the first half of the week, but cooling down the second half of the week.  Slight chances for rain and snow Thursday through Saturday.

February 19th-25th:  A cool start to the week with rain and slight chances for snow Sunday through Tuesday.  Colder temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 26th-March 4th:  warming up for the beginning of the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Colder the rest of the week with rain chances returning for Saturday.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool most of the week with rain chances on Wednesday.  Warming up for the weekend.

March 12th-18th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Turing cooler the rest of the week with rain chances by the weekend.

March 19th-25th:  Mild to start the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  The next system is in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances.  Cooling down as we head into the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

Tuesday Night/Wednesday AM Long range blog: Things are picking up!

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Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been super busy but pretty good, no complaints.  However, the days are flying by like always.

The weather has been pretty good over the past few days.  However, we are going to start to cool down a bit over the next few days.  Temperatures cooler Wednesday, but still not bad.

Let me show you where we are in the pattern.  We sit at a 57 days cycle this year, so take a look at the upper level map.

You can see the Jet Stream in purple passing right over us with a three main waves.  Pacific NW, Mexico, and the NE.  Lets go back 57 days.

You can see the very similar look on December 5th, that we have today.  Our next wave rolls in on Saturday.

This will give us a few showers, but a much stronger system rolls in on Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.  Yes the arctic air returns.

You can see the storm system diving south with the cold arctic air.

Well those temps look like fun!

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A nice mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  With cold arctic air returning on Wednesday, we could see a little light snow.  Temperatures will warm up a bit by the weekend with rain chances returning.

February 12th-18th:  Rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday with colder temperatures working back in.  Mild temps work back in late week with rain chances on Saturday.

February 19th-25th:  Mild with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning cooler with snow chances on Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week with slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 26th-March 4th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cold the rest of the week.

March 5th-11th:  A cool start to the week with chances for rain on Sunday.  Mild temperatures return by mid-week with rain chances on Thursday.