Archive: Mar 2017

Monday Evening Blog: Severe weather chances and your super long range forecast.

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Good Monday Evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend!  Mine was pretty good.  I got a ton of cleaning done and even did some outside yard work and mowed.  My grass was quickly shooting up, so it was time to take care of it.  My yard is mole city.  Where I don’t have moles, I have huge holes from my dog digging up moles.  So to say the least, it was a rough ride on the mower.

The weather was great on Sunday.  We had the thunderstorms last night and this morning.  It was definitely a much cooler day today, but more changes working in.  We should shoot near 70 on Tuesday.  However, our next storm system quickly works in Tuesday night and Wednesday.  After midnight Tuesday night, we should see a batch of thunderstorms driving in.

We could see a few strong storms, but I am not expecting anything severe.  Scattered thunderstorms will continue into Wednesday morning, then mostly cloudy skies.  The main wave will kick out on Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Thunderstorms will develop Wednesday afternoon, evening and through the night time hours.  Here is a look at early Wednesday evening.

I put the front on here for you.  We will be very close to the warm front.  Now north of the warm front, I really don’t expect a severe threat.  So the areas with a severe threat will be along and south of that front.  That means mainly the southern half of the viewing area.  Some of these should be strong to severe weather main threat being wind and hail.  I think the greatest severe threat will stay from NW AM and east central OK points south.

Now it stays active as we will continue to see wave after wave.  We are right on target and right where we should be with the Heady Pattern.  We have been sitting in a 57 day cycle since last July.  So this is our 5th cycle we have seen.  Check out my super long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild with temperatures into the 60s to start the week with showers on Sunday and Monday. We will warm up for the middle of the week with thunderstorms on Thursday and then again on Saturday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

April 9th-15th: A cool start to the week but warming up by the middle of the week with temps most likely into the 80s.  A storm system on Thursday and Saturday with thunderstorms chances.

April 16th-22nd: Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday. Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms. Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th: A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through. Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Latest updated blog: Next severe weather events

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Good Wednesday Night/Thursday morning!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  I have been super busy but it has turned out to be a pretty good week.  I am greatly enjoying the sun not setting till 7:30 during the evening.  This will make the weekends so much better with the additional daylight during the evenings.  Plus our temperatures are starting to warm back up.  We should make it up right around 60 on Thursday.

This warming trend will continue right into Friday and the weekend.  However, we do have a weak system that will work through late Thursday night and Friday.  This will give us a few scattered showers, mainly on Friday.

Even though we have a weak cold front that will drop through the area, I really don’t see much cold air behind the front.  Temperatures should be great over the weekend.  We have another weak wave on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday with some scattered showers across the region.  However, I don’t see any severe weather chances until about next Thursday.  Let me show you what I am looking at.

Here is the upper level pattern for next Wednesday night.  You can see the storm system kicking out of the rockies.  We will warm up ahead of this system and could have strong to severe storms next Thursday.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We have been in a 57 day cycle now since late last July.  So we have gone through many cycles over the past 8 months or so.  Lets look back at the last two cycles.  We will go back 57 days.

You can see this same system kicking out back on January 24th.  Lets look back two cycles to November 27th.

And yet again this same exact system.  So you can see we are right on track with the pattern.  Check out my latest updated long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild with showers on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Warming up with thunderstorms that could be strong to severe next Thursday.  Cooling down a bit for Friday and Saturday.

March 26th-April 1st:  Are next system works in on Sunday with again chances for thunderstorms that could be strong to severe.  A little cooler for the beginning of the week before we warm up again by Wednesday and Thursday.  Another chances for severe thunderstorms on Thursday.  Then cooling back down for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A mild to warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  Cooler and dry for the rest of the week.  Warmest temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday with highs into the 70s.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday that could be severe.  Great temperatures through the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances again by the weekend.  Warmest temperatures will be on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with highs well into the 80s.

April 16th-22nd:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms.  Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th:  A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Warm and dry the rest of the week.  Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through.  Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th:  Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

Quick Look at the summer:  I have concerns it will be hot and very dry!  Looking at this years pattern just screams heat waves!  The rest of May will mainly be in the 80s to near 90 for highs.  We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch.  I will look into July and August in my next blog.