Archive: Apr 2017

Friday Evening Blog: Heavy rains work in and your long range forecast.

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Good Evening!  I hope you guys have had a great week so far.  Well I guess it is almost the weekend thankfully and it has been definitely on the wet side over the past week.  A lot of areas have picked up 5-7″ of rain over the past week.  We will continue to see very heavy rains tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We will stay in this current pattern through the summer into the early fall.  However, the cycle (distance between storm systems) will start to shift by mid summer. Let me show you where we are at in the pattern with our next big rain event rolling in.

You can see this massive system pushing into the central plains.  Now, this is the exact same system we saw back on Feb. 28th.  We also had severe weather the last time this rolled through.

So we are right on target with where we should be with this system.  So lets dig into it.  Thunderstorms really get going mid to late evening.  Here is a look at 11pm tonight.

Now any severe weather tonight will mainly stay south of the region along the warm front.  However, as the warm front lifts north tonight, our airmass will become a little bit more unstable.  Lets move to Saturday AM.

Heavy amounts of rain with a low severe threat.  If we had any severe storms the main threat will be hail across the region.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms Saturday with heavy amounts of rain.  Lets move to Saturday evening.

The heaviest rain will push east on Saturday night, but we will still have on and off showers on Sunday.

We will work on the much colder side of the system on Sunday as you can see the snow not that far to the west.  We will have a couple days to dry out before the next rain chances roll in on Wednesday and Thursday.

Remember to check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week with drier conditions working in for Monday and Tuesday.  Our next system works in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms.  However, at this time it doesn’t look severe.  Rain chances sneak back in for the weekend.

May 7th-13th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with thunderstorms chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry and a little cooler the rest of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms chances on Tuesday and Friday.  We will have a severe threat with both of these systems and temperatures stay fairly warm through the week.

May 21st-27th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Monday and Tuesday.  A second system right behind with possible severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler and dry for the first half of the weekend.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday which is memorial day.  We will stay warm most of the week with severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  Warm through the week.

June 11th-17th:  Hot and mainly dry through the week.

June 18th-24th:  A hot start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  A little cooler for the middle of the week with temperatures warming up late in the week.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday Night Blog: Heavy Rains and your long range forecast.

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Good Wednesday night!  I hope your week is going fantastic!  Mine has been pretty good actually.  I am enjoying this fantastic weather and have been getting a ton of projects done around the house.  I was off for a week as I had to take a road trip to Chicago and get a few changes on my migraine treatment.  But I am back and in the swing of things.  We have a couple of storm systems rolling in over the next three days that could give most of the area in the range of 2-4″ of rain.  That is a lot of rain, I should have mowed today!

Thunderstorms will roll in late tonight and Thursday morning.  However, the severe threat is low, but I will watch it.  Here is a look at late tonight.

I think severe threat is low but will be watched.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the morning but shift south by the afternoon hours.  However, as the next wave rolls in the rain will shift back north late Thursday night.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms on Friday with heavy amounts of rain.

It looks like most of the severe threat will stay just south of the area.  But I will watch it.  Showers will stick around through at least Saturday morning.  Plus much cooler temperatures.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We are about to wrap with the 5th cycle we have seen in this stretch.  Here in just a couple of months the new cycle will start.  We  have been in a 57 day cycle since last July.  Here is a look at the system rolling through Friday and Saturday.

Now the Jet Stream was stronger back in February but here is the same system on Feb 24th 57 days earlier.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.  Here shortly I will take it out through the entire summer and into early fall week by week for you.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week, but a big warm-up by the middle of the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

April 30th-May 6th: A mild start to the week, but warming up quickly.  Thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.   A little cooler the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Saturday.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

1:30pm Blog: Severe weather threat, plus your long range forecast

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Good Tuesday afternoon.  I hope everyone is having a great days so far.  Mine has been busy as always.  I am going to get ready and shoot into work here shortly.  However, I want to go over our severe weather threat for this evening.

The main threat is very large hail, gusty winds and a lower tornado threat.

Hail:  High threat

Wind:  Elevated threat

Tornado:  Low threat

Temperatures have been hanging around 60 degrees most of the day.  However, a warm front is surging north and that will pop our temperatures up this afternoon.  That warm front will be right on top of us during the evening hours.  This put us at the triple point of this wave.  That means where the warm front/cold front/low pressure all meet.  That atmosphere is decently stable right now, but will become unstable through the afternoon hours as the front surges north.  The greatest threat for severe weather is from Fredonia-Parsons-Pittsburg-Lamar-Lockwood and points south.  This system is right on track with my pattern.  We are in the 5th cycle of this current pattern.  We are sitting on a cycle of 57.5 days.  That means our weather systems match from 57 days ago and 57 days ahead down the road.  So lets look at what we should see through the evening hours.

Lets step through the radar.  Here is a look at 5pm.

You can see the storms getting going across NE OK and SE KS.  Now the tornado threat is low, but if we see a couple tornadoes it will occur between 5-7pm with the greatest area threat being NE OK and extreme SE KS.  Lets move to 7pm.

At this time we are looking at mainly a wind and hail threat as the storms push into SW MO and NW AR.

By 10pm, the storms are long gone and the colder air will filter in for Wednesday with on and off showers.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

April 9th-15th: Showers and thunderstorms working back in late Sunday and Monday.  Some of these could be on the strong side.  We will see another system working in on Wednesday and Thursday with chances for thunderstorms.  Thunderstorm chances will return for the weekend.

April 16th-22nd: Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday. Another system on Thursday and Friday with also strong to severe storms. Most of the week, highs will be near 80 degrees.

April 23rd-29th: A warming trend through the beginning of the week with thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday. Warm and dry the rest of the week. Temperatures the second half of the week could press 90 degrees.

April 30th-May 6th: A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Some of these could be strong to severe. Additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday with our next system working through. Temperatures should be into the mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees.

May 7th-13th: Great temperatures most of the week with thunderstorms on Monday, Thursday and Friday. Temperatures should be into the mid 80s to near 90 most of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday.  Better chances for thunderstorms that could be severe by the weekend.

May 21st-27th:  A cooler start to the week with mild temperatures and showers on Sunday.  Warming back up for the second half of the week.  Thunderstorms, that could be severe on Wednesday and Friday.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Really heating up for the middle of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm to hot week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS