Archive: Jun 2017

Monday Night Blog: More thunderstorms and our long range forecast

by
Comments Off on Monday Night Blog: More thunderstorms and our long range forecast

Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend.  I have been out of the office for over a week at a weather conference in Kansas City.  It was a great conference and enjoyed it greatly.

Our weather has been great over the past few days.  Now we are having some scattered thunderstorms that have been working through and these will continue through the overnight hours.  Let me show you what we will see later this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will drop through this evening and tonight.  Some of these could be strong with a possible severe thunderstorm with the main threat being hail and wind.  Now, most of these will just stay on the strong side but I will watch it.

We will really heat up over the next few days.  The Jet Steam is well north as we will be under a ridge of high pressure.

Now, by the weekend we will see a storm system rotating across the northern plains.  This will drop a cold front in with chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Take a look at this system.

Now remember, we are and have been a 57 day cycle since last July.  So lets go back one cycle to May 3rd and you can see this same storm system rolling through.

This system will drop a front near the area giving us scattered thunderstorm through the holiday weekend.  Some of the storms could even be strong to severe.  Here is midday Sunday.  I am just pulling one day so you can see the scattered thunderstorms across the region.

So of course I will keep my eyes on the holiday weekend forecast over the next few days.

What is to come?  Well it looks like we will stay in a weak El Nino through the fall and into the winter months.  That means the new cycle length will most likely fall in the 50-55 day range.  The new cycle will begin its morphing stage from the old into the new here over the next month or so.  During the morphing process we will also morph from the old pattern and into the new pattern from August until it is completely set by the beginning of October.  I have over the past few years developed a process to be able to tell when and see these changes take place.  I also have a mathematic process on this to help me see the new pattern take place.  We will discuss this in greater details over the next couple of months.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Temperatures heat up for the second half of the week and mainly dry.

July 16th-22nd:  Main a hot week with high in the 90s to near 100 degrees.  We will have afternoon pop-up thunderstorms on Monday through Friday.

July 23rd-29th:  A hot start to the week with highs near 100.  However, cooling into the 80s for the second half of the week.  A few scattered thunderstorms from Monday through Thursday.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday Afternoon Blog: Long range forecast and pattern update

by
Comments Off on Tuesday Afternoon Blog: Long range forecast and pattern update

Good Tuesday afternoon.  I hope your week is going great so far.  I am off all week but still working at a conference in Kansas City.  However, I did want to update you on what to expect the next few days and of course your long range forecast.

The heat and the humidity are returning, but at the same time, we are also seeing chances for scattered thunderstorms a little later this week.  This is all due to an upper level wave and a tropical wave that are pushing through.  This is very interesting.  It fits the pattern perfectly and right on time with the 57 day cycle we have been in.  Take a look at Thursday.

You can see the wave working through the northern plains.  However, at the same time you can see the tropical system across eastern Texas.  Look at how this all fits together.  Lets go back 57 days, which is one cycle.

Lets go two cycles back to March 1st.

I hope you are used to the heat and humidity, we will see a lot of it this summer.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  A warm start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.  The heat and humidity pump in for the 4th of July weekend holiday.July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot and humid through the first half of the week.  It will turn a little cooler Thursday and Friday with a system working through with a few scattered thunderstorms.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Summer looks hot and dry!

by
Comments Off on Summer looks hot and dry!

Good Wednesday evening!  I hope you are having a fantastic week so far.  Mine has been busy as usually but actually a pretty good week.  I can believe we are over half way through the first week of June.  Boy does time fly.

I wanted to give you an update on the what the next several weeks look like.  Here is a video I did today, plus my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Hot most of the week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorms will start to increase Wednesday through Saturday.

June 18th-24th:  A cooler but warm week across the region.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then they will return for Thursday and Friday.

June 25th-July 1st:  A hot start to the week with the second half of the week warm with highs into the 80s.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday

July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot most of the week with a brief cool down on Thursday and Friday.  A chance for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Beginning of June: How will the summer change

by
Comments Off on Beginning of June: How will the summer change

Good Thursday evening!  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good but busy with thunderstorms each and every day.  Severe weather season around here is done on the 10th of this month.  On average we have about 8-10 events during the season.  With a few severe thunderstorm warnings today, this puts us at 17 events this spring.  We haven’t had a ton of tornadoes but it has been a very active spring.  I predicted 12-15 events and being at 17 is a lot.  We have also had a ton of rain.  Here is where we stand going now that we are in June.

The other interesting thing I see is the Jet Stream.  Look at today’s map.

We has a sub tropical southern very weak Jet.  This is what is giving us our spotting storms the past few days with weak waves working through.  However, I see a lot of ridges and take a look at next Friday.

This set-up will give us classic heat waves all summer long.  Also, now that the jet is retreating north, it is going to be harder to get bigger systems into the area.  So our severe threat for big systems is greatly dropping.  We will still have summertime pop-up storms, but the heavy rain events are going to greatly decrease.  In fact, I think July and August will be mainly hot and dry.

Now we will have the scattered storms around over the next couple of weeks.  Our chances increase over the weekend and we could have a few severe storms with some gusty winds and hail.  Here is a look at Saturday and Sunday.

Lets look at Sunday.

On Monday, this front will slip through and cool us down just a hair until the middle of next week.  We should also see a couple dry days before thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast just below this

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A warm week with scattered thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorm chances will return for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

June 11th-17th:  Most of the week is going to be hot with highs into the 90s.  We will have thunderstorm pop-ups on Sunday, and then Tuesday through Saturday.  These are just summer time isolated storms.

June 18th-24th:  High temps into the 80s and 90s through the week with pop-up storms on Sunday and Monday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

June 25th-July 1st:  A hot start to the week with the second half of the week warm with highs into the 80s.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday

July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot most of the week with a brief cool down on Thursday and Friday.  A chance for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS