Archive: Jul 2017

Wednesday Night Blog: Thunderstorms and cooler temperatures, plus your long range forecast

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Good Wednesday night!  I hope you have all enjoyed the heat!  Ha Ha, not really.  We have officially hit 100 degree three times this summer and we have had the humidity.  So we can definitely say it hasn’t been extremely pleasant.  We do have changes coming over the next few days.

Scattered thunderstorms for us tonight and into the morning hours.  We aren’t looking at anything severe, so that is good.

We will break out and see partly sunny skies and heat up into the lower 90s.  Additional thunderstorms during the afternoon as our cold front shifts through the area.

Behind this front much nicer temperatures work in for the weekend with highs into the mid to upper 80s.  Take a look at the weekend.

You can see the Jet Stream in purple to the north where it should be with a very weak wave in northern KS.  Remember we are on a 57 day cycle with this years pattern.  So lets go back 57 days.

On June 3rd we had the exact same pattern which we should.  Also you can see that same weak wave in northern KS.  Now the cycle is currently in the switching phase for the new pattern that will be in place in early October.  However, the cycle will be set here in about a week or so if it already isn’t going.  I have a model that I use to find this new cycle and looking forward to see what happens.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Pretty nice temps all week as we hang out near 90 degrees.  Thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday

August 6th-12th:  Heating right back up with 90s if not 100s.  Rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Cooling down a bit for the weekend.

August 13th-19th:  A warm start to the week with dry conditions.  Heating up for the second half of the week with 90s to near 100 with thunderstorm chances Friday and Saturday

August 20th-26th:  A warm first half of the week with a hot finish.  Rain chances Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with the heating kicking in by mid week.  Cooling down a bit for the holiday weekend with some rain chances.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Monday Night Blog: The heat!!!! Plus your long range forecast.

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Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend and stayed cool.  At least temperatures were a little cooler last Friday and Saturday.  However, the heat has kicked right back in!  It isn’t going anywhere for the next several days.  This is what we are going to see so much of the rest of the summer.  These big ridges with extended heat spells.  We usually have 1 of 3 summers around here.  Either a mild summer, hot with high humidity, or hot with little humidity.  This summer is a hot and humid summer.  It is very hard to climb above 100 when we have humid summers.  On hot and less humid summers, we see out temps climb above 100.  With the less humidity, it actually seems to feel a little better.  Lets see what is going on this week.

The Jet stream is well north and we have this huge area of high pressure over us.  This is what is giving us the heat this week.  Now underneath the ridge we have that tiny little wave in northern KS.  With it, there are a few little showers and thunderstorms north of us.  If we go back one cycle to 57 days ago, we had the same set-up.  The difference was the Jet Stream was stronger in May.

You can see how the Jet was still way north, but the low across the central plains was much stronger.  Due to the summer months, we are going to have to deal with the heat and humidity.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A hot start to the week with cooler temperatures finally working in by mid week.  With it, we will have scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday night blog: Long range forecast and the heat kicking back in!

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Good Wednesday evening! I hope everyone had a great holiday weekend and a fantastic 4th.  It was to bad we had so many showers on the 4th, but at least it was spotty.  I went to the lake for several days with friends and family.  It was a great time, but the boat is giving me a few fits.  BOAT=Bring On Another Thousand.  I am hitting the lake again tonight, so I will be out of the office for the next week.  I will be checking in, so you can’t get rid of me completely.

All of the showers have been dying off and we will dry out over the next few days.  Also temperatures will really heat up with the humidity for the rest of the week.  We will see a cold front slide in late Friday with a few scattered showers and thunderstorms Friday night and Saturday.

With this front, we will cool down a bit on Saturday as the front slips just south of the region.  However, it will be short lived as the front turns back around and heads back north on Sunday.  Then the heat really starts to kick in next week.  Temperatures will climb through the 90s with heat indices well above 100 degrees.  This is all due to a big ridge of high pressure that will push in.  Take a look at Monday.

You can see the west coast system, the huge heat wave ridge over the central plains, and then the east coast system.  Now this is right on track with the Heady Pattern, or CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis).  Gary Lezak and I are the founders of this pattern.  We have always called this pattern different names due to having some different ideas.  However, we are trying to combine our patterns as a team and looks like we will call it the CPH.  I will keep you updated on that.  Remember, we are on a 57 day cycle.  However, the cycle is now in the process of a morphing into the new cycle for the next year to come.  We will also talk more about that change in the future.  So lets go back one cycle or about 57 days.

On May 14th, you can see the west coast system, ridge in the central US, and east coast system.  Lets go back another 57 days to March 18th.

As you can see, the same set-up once again.  We can continue to go back another cycle to January 23rd.

The jet stream was at top strength in January, but you can still see the exact same set-up.  I find this super cool!   So I know this will repeat once again here in about 57 days.

Long Range Forecast Below

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid with a few isolated pop-up storms.  Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday look to be mainly dry.

July 23rd-29th:  A hot start to the week, but cooling back down into the 80s through most of the week.  We will have scattered showers and thunderstorms as a front sinks in and stalls over us from Monday through Thursday.  The heat and humidity will return for the weekend.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS