Archive: Aug 2017

A look at Harvey and our long range forecast

by
Comments Off on A look at Harvey and our long range forecast

Good Tuesday night!  I hope your week is going great so far.  We are almost to the hump of the week, and then soaring toward the holiday weekend.  The weather has been fantastic over the past few days and should stay that way over the next few days.

HARVEY STILL GOING

Harvey finally starts moving tomorrow.  You can see the remnants will start getting on the move.  This will increase our cloud cover over the next few days.  Lifts even farther north by Thursday.

Because it turns to the NE, most of the rain will stay well SE of the region.  Once Harvey passes by, this will allow us to start heating up for the holiday weekend.

A LOOK INTO THE WEEKEND AND HEADY PATTERN (CPH)

A nice big ridge of high pressure rolls in.  This will really allow temperatures to get back where we should be during the holiday weekend.

Enjoy it as of course this is the unofficial end of summer.  It looks like a pretty good cold front slides through next Tuesday cooling us back into the 70s for highs.

So where are we in the pattern?  Remember, my theories are the new pattern will set up from the last week of September until the first week of October.  Now when I say pattern, this means how storm systems will react.  Now the cycle is the at 57.5 days.  The length of the cycle means the same storms systems are rotating through on that rotation.  The 57.5 cycle is rapidly dying, but you can still see it.  The new cycle length has already developed but it is reacting with the old pattern.  I can see it and use it, but it will be much stronger once the new pattern sets up.

SEPTEMBER

The first half of the month will have a lot of temperature swings but in general fairly warm.  The second half of the month really starts cooling down.  I will go into this more tomorrow.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot start to the week with a storm system rolling in on Tuesday and Wednesday with much cooler temperatures.  Warming back up a bit toward the weekend.

September 10th-16th:  Warm temperatures, mainly into the 80s through the week.  Rain chances Sunday through Tuesday, then again Thursday through Saturday.

September 17th-23rd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Friday.  Temperatures warming back up a hair the second half of the week.

September 24th-30th:  Cooling down this week with mainly 70s for highs.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday Night/Friday AM Blog: Next system, hurricane Harvey and long range forecast!

by
Comments Off on Thursday Night/Friday AM Blog: Next system, hurricane Harvey and long range forecast!

Good Thursday night!  I hope your week has been fantastic.  Mine has been pretty good, busy but good and I have a 3 day weekend heading my way so I am pumped.  I need to get yard work done and I will probably go to the Webb City high school football game Friday night.  Also my son has a game on Saturday and the weather looks great.

NEXT SYSTEM

Our next system won’t move in until late Sunday and early Monday with a few scattered thunderstorms.  Until then it looks great!

HURRICANE HARVEY AND THE HEADY PATTERN

The big story is Hurricane Harvey.  Check this guy out.  He will make landfall Friday evening.

He is small in size but should be a Cat. 3 which would be a major hurricane.  The amounts of rain could make this hurricane a devastating one.  Check out how slow he moves.

Look at Sunday, he has weakened but he really hasn’t moved.  In fact he will sit here all next week.  He won’t even leave the state of Texas until next weekend.  Here is next Saturday.

This means extremely heavy rains.  Over the next week we could see 30-40 inches of rain.

We average 49″ of rain per year.  This area will get about 10 months of rain in a week and will cause tremendous flooding.  Most of this moisture will stay south of  the 4-state area but it does need to be watched.  So the pattern is interesting.  The old pattern is in place for about another month but the new cycle has already established itself and I have been working on that for about the past month.  But the old 57.5 day cycle is still there, dying but still there.  So check this out.  Lets look at Sunday.

You can see the low across the great lakes with our next system and then Harvey across Texas.  Lets go back 57 days with our dying cycle.

Here is July 1st, you can see the low up north and look at the little low across Texas, that is pretty amazing.  Lets look at the developing cycle and move to July 6th.

You can see the low up north and the little wave in SE MO.  So we are right on track.  We will see a warmer spell for the first half of September, but the second half should be much cooler.  Here is the break down below.

 

 

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Great temperatures with 80s through the week.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday, but we do need to watch the moisture from Harvey.

September 3rd-9th:  Cooling down for Sunday and Monday with rain chances over Labor Day.  Heating up and mainly dry the rest of the week.

September 10th-16th:  Warm to hot temps to start the week with highs near 90.  Rain chances Sunday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday as we have a few waves rolling through.  Most of the week will be in the 80s.

September 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Turning cooler through the middle of the week with warm 80s returning late in the week.

September 24th-30th:  Cooling down this week with mainly 70s for highs.  Rain chances on Wednesday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday night blog: More storms, eclipse and long range forecast

by
Comments Off on Thursday night blog: More storms, eclipse and long range forecast

Good Thursday night!  I hope the week has been fantastic.  I am sitting here getting stuff done at work and stepped outside for a few minutes.  It feels awesome outside.  It is to bad the heat and humidity will kick right back in tomorrow.  Plus, chances for showers and thunderstorms as well.

NEXT SYSTEM

Thunderstorm chances will creep back in Friday afternoon and evening.  Now this won’t be nearly as heavy and widespread as what we had on Wednesday.  It will be very scattered and some areas will stay dry.  Here is a look at Friday night with scattered thunderstorms.

Saturday looks great!  However, chances for thunderstorms will roll back in on Sunday and Monday.  Remember, Monday is eclipse day.  Lets look at our forecast here.

Around here, I do think we are going to be partly sunny and there is a slight chance for a pop-up storms.  Lets keep our fingers crossed.  Now if you are heading toward KC, the chances for rain are a little higher all the way into central MO.

Right now, could change but as of right now I think the best place is just south of St. Louis for viewing purposes.

HEADY PATTERN

The old pattern is now in the morphing stage into the new pattern.  Now, the new cycle length is currently in place.  I have a pretty good idea what it is, but need to continue to watch it.  This year is an easier process for me as I have a modeling system for the pattern change.  The old 57.5 day cycle is still present but getting weaker by the day.  I will keep you updated on all of the changes.

LABOR DAY

Labor Day weekend looks nice with highs into the 80s and partly sunny skies.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm through most of the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then another system with rain chances on Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  Another warm week with highs mainly into the 80s.  Showers and thunderstorms possible on Thursday and Friday.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday Night: Storms and a look down the road, long range

by
Comments Off on Thursday Night: Storms and a look down the road, long range

Good Thursday night!  I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been busy but good.  Plus I have a 4-day weekend coming up which I am stoked about of course.

We have this system working through now with showers and thunderstorms and some heavy amounts of rain.  I am not really worried about severe weather but some stronger storms.  Plus what about the pattern and our long range forecast.  Here is the latest on all of that.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Temperatures slowly warming through the week with 90s by the middle of the week.  However, with a front and weak waves working through, we will have isolated storms through the week.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good with partly sunny skies and highs around 85.  A hotter week with mainly 90s rolling in with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  We will have chances for showers and thunderstorms during the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures heading into the holiday weekend.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Latest updated blog: Why is August cooler?

by
Comments Off on Latest updated blog: Why is August cooler?

Good Tuesday evening!  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been pretty good, I had a 4 day weekend and hit the lake a bit and did stuff around the house.  I work three days this week and then back out for the weekend to go see a buddy in Charlotte.  However, the weather has been fantastic.  I thought tonight it would be easier to just do a video blog then try to explain why August as been cooler.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  I think temperatures look great with 80s most of the week.  However, we are still going to have these weak waves rolling through.  That means chances for on and off showers and thunderstorms continue from Sunday through Wednesday.  We could see a few more showers on Friday.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good with partly sunny skies and highs around 90.  A hotter week with mainly 90s rolling in with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  We will have chances for showers and thunderstorms during the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures heading into the holiday weekend.

September 3rd-9th:  Warm start to the week with hot temperatures during the middle of the week.  Back to warm temps heading into the weekend.  Rain chances on Friday.

September 10th-16th:  A hot start to the week with a warm finish.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and the weekend.

September 17th-23rd:  Warm with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler temperatures for the middle of the week but a warming trend toward the weekend.

September 24th-30th:  Warm most of the week with mild temperatures toward the weekend.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday Night Blog: Nice temps and a look at Eclipse Day. Plus your month long

by
Comments Off on Tuesday Night Blog: Nice temps and a look at Eclipse Day. Plus your month long

Good Tuesday evening!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  The weather has been fantastic and it should stay that way for at least the next week.  We have had very weak waves rolling through and a little stronger (but still weak) wave will roll through on Thursday.  Now remember, we are still sitting in the 57 day cycle, but the cycle has started to shift and the new cycle is already here.  It has just recently started and now my job is to find it which I am currently working on.  I can use the old 57 day cycle for about another 6 weeks as it fades out, but I will easily find the new one here in the next two weeks.  So lets look at Thursday’s system

Look at this same weak system back on June 7th

This will give us some scattered thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and very comfy temps toward the weekend.  We may not make it out of the 70s for highs on Friday.  Lets jump ahead to August 21st.  Here is what eclipse day is looking like as of now.

Check out my long range forecast below.  On my next blog I will update it into October for you.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Great temperatures again with mainly 80s through the week.  Chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday.  Rain chances roll back in on Wednesday and Thursday with our next system.

August 13th-19th:  A warm start to the week with highs into the with 80s for highs, but 90s return for the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 20th-26th:  Eclipse Monday looks good right now with partly sunny and skies and a high around 85.  Hot late in the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with the heating kicking in by mid week.  Cooling down a bit for the holiday weekend with some rain chances.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS