Archive: Dec 2017

Thursday Night/Friday Morning: Update on upcoming weather and your long range forecast.

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Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

We have been so dry that past couple of month, but something has to break.  We are entering a stretch of the pattern that will most likely give us arctic air and some wintry weather.  I put together a video blog to help explain what I am looking at.

I will keep you up to date on all of the changes.  Remember, my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then a stretch of nice weather through Thursday.  An arctic front drops through Thursday night and we could see a light wintry mix on Friday.

December 24th-30th:  A cold start to the week with rain, ice and snow chances on Christmas Eve and Day.  We do have a second wave on Wednesday, but I don’t think we will have the moisture.  Rain and snow chances return for the weekend.

December 31st-January 6th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returning by mid week.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  If we can get any cool air, we could mix or change to snow on Thursday.  Cold temperatures into the weekend.

January 7th-14th:  Mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on Thursday.

January 15th-20th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cool for a few days before mild temperatures return late in the week.

January 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Much colder the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday Evening Blog: The next two weeks looking INTERESTING

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Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

We have been so dry that past couple of month, but something has to break.  We are entering a stretch of the pattern that will most likely give us arctic air and some wintry weather.  I put together a video blog to help explain what I am looking at.

I will keep you up to date on all of the changes.  Remember, my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A chilly start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  We need to watch this system to see if we can get any cool air but right now it looks like all rain.  We warm up a bit for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  A system works in on Friday and early Saturday.  This will give us some showers and drop an arctic front through the area.  This means much colder temperatures for the holiday weekend.

December 24th-30th:  A cold start to the week with rain, ice and snow chances on Christmas Eve and Day.  A second wave should roll through with rain, ice and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  These will need to be watched very closely.  Staying fairly cold the rest of the week with rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

December 31st-January 6th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returning by mid week.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  If we can get any cool air, we could mix or change to snow on Thursday.  Cold temperatures into the weekend.

January 7th-14th:  Mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on Thursday.

January 15th-20th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cool for a few days before mild temperatures return late in the week.

January 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Much colder the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday Night Blog: Much colder but what about snow?

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Good Wednesday night!  I hope you are having a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good just so busy with all of these Christmas parades.  However, it will calm down the rest of the week.  Plus it has been pretty cold the past couple of days.  Well we are definitely a lot colder than what we have seen over the past several weeks.  Let me show you what is going.

We have the huge ridge out west and the huge trough in the central plains which has brought the cold air south.  We will have another surge on Thursday with some colder air.  Even though we have the cold air, we can’t get any gulf moisture with this north flow.  So we see flurries and that is it.  The weekend or second half of the weekend warms just a bit.

You can see the trough shifts east taking the coldest air with it.  However, it won’t last long as by next Tuesday the cold air slides right back in.  Lets jump to late next week.

You can see how our troughs starts digging a little farther west.  This is what we need to get some gulf moisture.  This is when we will have a couple week stretch of some wintry weather.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A mild start but cooling right back down late on Monday.  We should warm a bit late in the week and then back down on Friday and Saturday.  We will have a least slight chances for rain or snow into the weekend.

December 17th-23rd:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Another system rolls in on Thursday and Friday with rain and snow chances.

December 24th-30th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working in after Christmas.  There is a slight chances for rain on Christmas and again on Friday.

December 31st-January 6th:  Up and down temperatures through the week with three cold fronts passing through.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then slight chances for rain on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

January 7th-14th:  Mainly a mild week with rain or snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday as it briefly turns cooler.

January 15th-20th:  Cold air works back in with rain and snow chances on Tuesday, Thursday and slight chances on Saturday.

January 21st-27th:  Another cold week with snow chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday night blog: Plus long range forecast.

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Good Friday evening!  I hope you all had a fantastic week!  Mine was actually pretty good.  However, I am very ready for the weekend.  The weather is going to be nice and I would love to get outside and do a few things before the cold temperatures work in next week.  Lets look at this.  A strong cold front will work in late on Monday.

With this front, we will see scattered showers late Monday, Monday night and into Tuesday morning.  Then the much colder temperatures will arrive.  Look at our upper level map for next Tuesday.

The pattern is blocking up, this will allow arctic air to sink south and sit on us for a few weeks.  Check out my detailed long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Turning much colder through the week with rain chances on Monday.  We could see a little light rain/snow mix on Wednesday.  Cold with slight chances for snow on Thursday and Friday.

December 10th-16th:  Mainly a cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Staying cold into the weekend.

December 17th-23rd:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Another system rolls in on Thursday and Friday with rain and snow chances.

December 24th-30th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures working in after Christmas.  There is a slight chances for rain on Christmas and again on Friday.

December 31st-January 6th:  Up and down temperatures through the week with three cold fronts passing through.  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then slight chances for rain on Wednesday, Friday and Saturday.

January 7th-14th:  Mainly a mild week with rain or snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday as it briefly turns cooler.

January 15th-20th:  Cold air works back in with rain and snow chances on Tuesday, Thursday and slight chances on Saturday.

January 21st-27th:  Another cold week with snow chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS