Archive: Jan 2018

Tuesday Night/Wednesday AM Blog: It will warm up! Plus your next storm system

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Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Good Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  It is so cold it is crazy.  It is very hard to get this cold around this part of the country.  We have to have a pretty good snow pack and arctic air for this to happen.  We had 5.5″ of snow in Joplin, which gives us a total of 8.5″ for the season.  We average about 16″, I actually think that has dropped to about 14″ over the past year with climate change.  However, it will warm up over the next few days and this will be a distant memory.  So lets look at the next storm system.

The way it is tracking right now, it should be mainly rain for our area.  However, we could see a little bit of snow on the backside on Sunday night.  So I will keep my eyes on this.  How does this fall with the heady pattern?  Remember, we are about in a 48 day cycle. This storm system moved through in early December and also late October.  Also a weaker version of it back in early September.  Every other cycle like to mirror each other with the pattern.  So lets look at two cycles ago back on October 22nd.

You can see the system right across the central plains with a second system in the pacific northwest.  Lets look at this Sunday.

It is a match to a T.  With our last cycle, we really got the blocking during the month of December and temperatures were pretty cold most of the month.  In fact we have been pretty cold in January, but we have also had some days bounce into the 60s.  This time around, I don’t think we will see a ton of blocking over the next few weeks.  This means a lot of systems will be rain or rain over to snow.  I do expect us to block up in a few weeks the arctic air really returns in February, similar to what we saw around Christmas and New Years.  I will keep you updated.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Cool temperatures with rain on Sunday.  We could see a little bit of snow on Sunday night depending on the track of the system.  Cool temperatures through most of the week with very slight chances for showers on Tuesday. Rain and snow chances return for Friday and Saturday.

January 28th-February 3rd:  Mainly a cool to cold week.  Rain and snow chances on Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

February 4th-10th:  Mainly another cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

February 11th-17th:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and a slight chance on Thursday.

February 18th-24th:  Cold with rain or snow on Sunday.  The next system with rain and snow chances works in on Friday.

February 25th-March 3rd:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  The rest of the week will be dry until slight chances for snow by the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Thursday Night/Friday AM: Next storm systems

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Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

Good Thursday night or Friday morning.  I hope you have had a great week and of course ready for the weekend.  I have been gone in Austin since Saturday for a meteorology conference.  Talk about Saturday?  I was so sick about my Chiefs.  I don’t know why, every year is the same result.

What a day Thursday was.  Our strong arctic front rolled through and our temperatures at one point in time were dropping a degree per minute.  We had the freezing drizzle but not much moisture with this storm system.  We stay cold for the next week with below average temperatures.  We will see a weak wave next Monday that will bring in colder temperatures once again.  With it, we could have a little light snow.

We will warm back up late next week ahead of the next system over the weekend.  This is right in line with where we should be with the Heady Pattern.  On December 3rd, we saw the pattern block up and it was pretty cold through New Years.  I don’t think that pattern will block up as much this time around so we have better chances for storm systems.  So lets go back to December 3rd.

You can see the storm system dropping into the west.  That system was the start of the cold temperatures.  Here is this same system next Friday.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast below.

 

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Another cold week with temperatures staying below average.  Some light snow chances Monday and then some rain chances by Saturday.  Also temperatures warming up on Friday and Saturday.

January 21st-27th:  A cold start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Staying cold the rest of the week with rain and snow chances on Friday and Saturday.

January 28th-February 3rd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 4th-10th:  Mainly another cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

February 11th-17th:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and a slight chance on Thursday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday Night/Saturday AM Blog: Next system and long range forecast

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Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

I hope you had a great week!  Mine has been ok, I have been pretty sick all week.  However, I think I am on the upswing.  I have a conference I will be at for the next 6 days so I won’t have another update until next Thursday.  Here is a break down of our next storm system and the long range forecast.  When will we get snow?

I will keep you up to date on all of the changes.  Remember, my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A much warmer week with our next system on Thursday.  It looks like mainly rain right now but could mix with a little snow.  Colder for the weekend.

January 14h-20th:  A cool start to the week but warming up for the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, but staying mild the rest of the week.  Rain chances return for the weekend.

January 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with rain, then rain and snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Turning colder the rest of the week.

January 28th-February 3rd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Sunday and Monday.  Slight chances for snow on Friday.

February 4th-10th:  Mainly another cold week with rain and snow chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Thursday.

February 11th-17th:  Another cold week with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and a slight chance on Thursday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS