Good Thursday evening!  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good but busy with thunderstorms each and every day.  Severe weather season around here is done on the 10th of this month.  On average we have about 8-10 events during the season.  With a few severe thunderstorm warnings today, this puts us at 17 events this spring.  We haven’t had a ton of tornadoes but it has been a very active spring.  I predicted 12-15 events and being at 17 is a lot.  We have also had a ton of rain.  Here is where we stand going now that we are in June.

The other interesting thing I see is the Jet Stream.  Look at today’s map.

We has a sub tropical southern very weak Jet.  This is what is giving us our spotting storms the past few days with weak waves working through.  However, I see a lot of ridges and take a look at next Friday.

This set-up will give us classic heat waves all summer long.  Also, now that the jet is retreating north, it is going to be harder to get bigger systems into the area.  So our severe threat for big systems is greatly dropping.  We will still have summertime pop-up storms, but the heavy rain events are going to greatly decrease.  In fact, I think July and August will be mainly hot and dry.

Now we will have the scattered storms around over the next couple of weeks.  Our chances increase over the weekend and we could have a few severe storms with some gusty winds and hail.  Here is a look at Saturday and Sunday.

Lets look at Sunday.

On Monday, this front will slip through and cool us down just a hair until the middle of next week.  We should also see a couple dry days before thunderstorm chances return next weekend.

Make sure you check out the long range forecast just below this

Doug

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A warm week with scattered thunderstorm on Sunday and Monday.  Thunderstorm chances will return for Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

June 11th-17th:  Most of the week is going to be hot with highs into the 90s.  We will have thunderstorm pop-ups on Sunday, and then Tuesday through Saturday.  These are just summer time isolated storms.

June 18th-24th:  High temps into the 80s and 90s through the week with pop-up storms on Sunday and Monday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

June 25th-July 1st:  A hot start to the week with the second half of the week warm with highs into the 80s.  Thunderstorm chances on Tuesday and Wednesday

July 2nd-8th:  The holiday weekend looks great with hot temperatures through the 4th.  Warm the second half of the week with thunderstorm chances on the 5th.

July 9th-15th:  Hot most of the week with a brief cool down on Thursday and Friday.  A chance for a few thunderstorms on Thursday.

July 16th-22nd:  Temps near 90 most of the week with pop up storms Sunday through Wednesday, and then again by the weekend.

 

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS