Forecasts

Friday midday April 22nd: Warmer temperatures with a few severe weather threats!

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Happy Friday!  I hope your week was great and enjoying your Friday so far. Mine has been pretty good, just a little tired.  Up early to take my son to school and have been running around in the yard so far this morning.  Wow, what a great day!  Temperatures are going to continue to warm up with sunny skies.  Most of us should go in the 73-76 range.

Temps today

Even warmer tomorrow as we press 80.

Saturday temps

However, when we look at the Heady Pattern, we are going to jump back into the active stretch of the pattern here over the next few weeks.  Remember, we are in a 49.5 day cycle that will last a few more months before the new one kicks off during the middle of the summer.  We are right on target with where we should be with our next storm systems working in next week.  In fact, we have 3 systems next week rolling through.  The first one is on Sunday.

Sunday 500

The low is up in northern Nebraska so that puts the best energy and lift just NW of us in the red circle.  Plus this system doesn’t have a ton of moisture but it will fire showers and thunderstorms by Sunday.  The ones that do pop-up could be strong to severe.

Precip Sunday evening

Next system rolls in on Tuesday.

Tuesday 500

This is a much stronger system with a neg. tilt meaning it is leaning back toward the NW.  This will provide more energy for the system which I circled in the red having the best shot for severe storms on Tuesday evening.

Tuesday precip

I will keep you updated.

#headypattern #mowx #kswx #okwx #arwx

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A few scattered storms Sunday and into Monday.  This will be pretty scattered but the ones that get going could be strong to severe.  A much stronger system moves in for Tuesday and Wednesday.  A higher threat for severe storms on Tuesday evening and into Wednesday.  Even a third system works in late Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th:  A mild and dry start to the week with warmer temperatures by the middle of the week.  Our next system rolls in by Wednesday and Thursday.  Again a severe threat works into the area.  Cooler and dryer for Friday and Saturday.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday.  Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area.  This is probably going to be a big hyped event!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

March 30th Severe weather blog

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Good late morning!  I hope you are having a great Wednesday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, just plugging away at some work as usual.  Of course I have been glancing over today’s severe weather set-up for the central plains.  It is an interesting set-up, and something we want to watch.  This storm fall right in the pattern and actually all the way down to the micro-scale.  We are going to keep seeing this set-up through the spring with drylines setting up across central and eastern KS and OK.  This is our second one in a week and we will continue to see them over the next couple of months.  Lets look at today.

Early Afternoon

I put a red circle around the areas with a severe threat.  The orange circle are the areas with a little higher threat.  The higher threats will be St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Emporia, Chanute, Yates Center, Fredonia.  Also areas farther south from Dallas into SE OK and a good chunk of AR.  Scattered and I do mean scattered thunderstorms will pop-up over the next few hours across the region and push through during the afternoon hours.

3 pm storms

Here is a look at 3pm.  Scattered thunderstorms with mainly small hail through AR, OK, MO and KS during the afternoon hours.  Some clearing will take place ahead of the dryline (black dotted line) out west and storms will start going probably around 4pm.  These storms will race ENE across KS and OK.  Lets work through the evening hours.

5pm storms

Here is a look at 5 pm.  The storms now in eastern KS south into OK, could be strong to severe.  They should have strong winds with hail and possibly a few isolated tornadoes.  However, they will be scattered, they won’t be a line of storms.  They will continue to press NE.

7 pm storms

Let move to 7pm. The dryline/front now is pushing the state line of KS/MO.  Hail and wind is the primary threat with still a few isolated tornadoes possible.  However, again you can see these storms are scattered.  At this time the storms will start to quickly break up.

9 pm storms

Isolated storms by 9pm.  However, the severe threat starts to decrease and the storms start working east quickly.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Tuesday morning blog: Severe threat across the central plains!

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Good Tuesday morning!  I hope you have had a great start to the work week and a great holiday weekend.  We had a pretty good weekend.  My son of course got a few items for Easter and we did a few things over the weekend.  We tried painting eggs and hey he enjoyed it.  I thought it left a pretty good mess, but at least he had fun.

Christian

Temperatures warmed back up on Monday and will continue to warm today and Wednesday.  However, the winds will start to pick back up as well.  So lets turn to our next storm system that is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  Remember, we are right on a 49.5 day cycle this year.  The cycle will last a few more months before it takes a turn which will will get into here later.  So lets look at this next system.  Today looks great across the central plains.

Tuesday Temps

Temperatures look great on Wednesday as well.

Wednesday Temps

However, our next system pushes in fast on Wednesday.

Wednesday 500

You can see the swirl across NW KS, that is the center of the energy for the next wave on Wednesday.  This is coming out with perfect timing to give us a severe weather shot tomorrow afternoon.  However, when I look at the map above I see a positive tilt.  This means the system is leaning forward and not backward.  On the other hand we do have pretty good shear (wind changing with height) and moisture is already feeding back into the plain states.  One big key here is the surface winds will be out of the south or just a hair out of the SSE.  This usually points to a better shot for stronger supercells across the region.  Back to the other hand, we will be strong capped (lid on the atmosphere, keeping storms from firing up) which means we won’t have a widespread outbreak of storms.  So with that said, lets look at what the NAM model projects for Wednesday evening.

Wednesday precip

You can see the area of Low pressure across eastern Nebraska with a dry line stretching south into eastern KS.  The NAM model want thunderstorms to fire along the dry line during the evening hours.  So here is my take with everything mentioned above.  At this time, I think we will have SCATTERED strong to severe storms that will develop after 4 pm tomorrow from SE NB into NE KS and east central KS.  These will most likely become severe with severe thunderstorm warning with hail and gusty winds.  We also can’t rule out a few tornadoes.  This would affect areas from St. Joe, KC, Lawrence, Topeka, Emporia to Ft. Scott.  As we work farther south into SE KS and NE OK, I expect isolated supercells.  Isolated means one here and one there.  These could go severe with mainly a hail threat as these will be more of an elevated threat.  A little father south in central OK, again we will see isolated supercells, but these will have more of a tornado threat due to the low level jet being stronger and some great upper level divergence.  All of these storms will plow east and become a line during the evening and start to fall apart becoming just a hail threat.  Of course as things evolve over the next 36 hours I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady #headypattern

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Mild start to the week with slight chances for showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Slight chances for storms return on Friday as well.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Thursday night Blog March 24th: More rain heading our way

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I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good, but definitely on the busy side.  I had the stomach flu last week and of course my son got it this week.  That is never fun for a kid on his spring break or a parent taking care of a kid!!!  Also last night was a busy night with thunderstorms across the region and back to the cold temperatures for us today.  Spring around here is wild as you never really have spring.  You seem to have summer one day and then back to winter the next.  So you get an average of what is called spring for a few months.  At least temperatures warm up a bit on Friday as most areas are back into the lower 60s.

Friday temperatures

Temperatures stay pretty good on Saturday even though scattered showers work back into the central plains for the morning hours.

Saturday AM precip

This is the first weaker wave.  The stronger wave will work in Saturday night and on Easter Sunday.  Lets take a look.

Saturday 500

I circled the wave dropping into the plain states.  You can see this same wave 50 days ago in our pattern.

Feb 5th

Here is a look at February 5th.  This will give us cold showers across the region on Sunday.

Sunday precip

Even across central KS, we could see a mix of snow and some light accumulations.  Temperatures will warm back up early next week with thunderstorms and possibly severe weather returning by the middle of next week.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: Warming back up early in the week with thunderstorm chances on Wednesday that could be on the strong to severe side.  Left over cooler showers on Thursday.  Cooler but dry on Friday and Saturday.

April 3rd-9th: A mild start to the week with chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Another wave works in with thunderstorm chances again on Wednesday.  Warming up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances again on Friday.

April 10th-16th: Mild with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday.  Good chances for storms on Wednesday with cooler temperatures working in for the rest of the week.

April 17th-23rd: Thunderstorm chances that could be severe to start the week.  Then mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

April 24th-30th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with good chances for storms by the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures the rest of the week with slight chances for storms on Friday and Saturday.

May 1st-7th: A warming trend through the week with good chances for storms on Wednesday and Thursday that could be severe.  Mild and dry the rest of the week.

May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with good chances for storms that could be severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Cooling down for the weekend.

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday.  Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday.  Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.

Monday Blog September 21st: The Heady Pattern is set! The cycle is set!

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I hope you had a great weekend!  I had a great weekend.  My better half (Stacey) and my Son (Christian) and I did a ton around the the house on Saturday.  Yesterday we went to an air show at the airport here in Joplin.  I was completely impressed with old planes and all of the tricks they were doing.  Stacey enjoyed the long lines for the her frozen lemonades and of course Christian had to spend time in the bouncy house.  The weather here in Joplin was great all weekend long.  We had temperatures in the 70s through the weekend which is a little bit below normal for this time of the year.  We actually had pretty good showers and thunderstorms with a cold front on Friday evening that cooled us down for the weekend. Things look pretty calm for the next several days.  We are in what I call the boring part of the Heady Pattern.  Now later in the winter this could be an active stretch, but right now this is a boring stretch.

The new 2015-2016 Heady Pattern is completely set.  Due to the my theories the Heady Pattern sets up each year right around September 20th.  This pattern will last until next August and then slowly morph into the next pattern for about a month.  Remember, the pattern is how storm systems will react over the next year.  Now the cycle is how often storm systems will repeat.  The cycle sets up depending on the the year anywhere from May through July.  This years cycle completely set up in early July.  This means we are ready roll, we have our new pattern and cycle.  Plus on top of this we have a very strong El Nino that will influence this years Heady Pattern.  Lets take a look at it.

El Nino

I usually look at the 3.4 index.  This is the second box down.  When you get an El Nino at 2.25 or greater, we are talking about one heck of an El Nino.  You can see we had a weak El Nino even last fall, winter, spring as well.  However, it really got ramped up over the summer months.  I am sure you have seen many forecasts already for the fall, winter and spring across the nation for the El Nino winter.  These forecasts are based of historical El Nino events and they terrible!!!!!!!!!!!  Most climo forecasters assume with El Nino that the lower 48 will be warmer that normal and wetter than normal in spots.  Here is a look at what most forecasters expect with El Nino.

precip

temps

However, this ISN’T the case.  It all has to do with the Heady pattern.  What ever the pattern is will tell us who will be warmer, colder, wetter and dryer.  Now, El Nino does influence how the pattern sets up some, but just because we are in El Nino, it doesn’t mean this is what we are going to see.  Here in the midwest I have seen very warm and dry winters and very cold and wet winters with El Nino.

Now that the new Heady Pattern is completely set, I can really study it and get a good grasp on what we will see across the nation.  I already see an active stretch in the pattern.  This active stretch in the pattern will affect the midwest in the 2nd, 3rd and part of the 4th week of October.  However, for today lets focus on what we will see for the next couple of weeks.  Remember, I said we are in the boring part of the pattern.  Now, this could be a more exciting time down the road as the Jet Stream gets a little stronger toward the winter months.  Here is an upper level map that shows storm system energy and the jet stream at roughly 18,000 feet.

August 4th

This is back on Aug 4th.  This is the part of the pattern that we will be in for about the next week and a half.  Our cycle this year is a bit longer than last years 47 day cycle.  Now the map above shows the old pattern but the new cycle.  Because the Jet Stream hasn’t gotten to much stronger we will continue to see ridging across the southern US keeping temperatures warm with most of the storm systems across the Great Lakes and the Pacific NW as they rotate into the northern Plains.  Their are some hints of some tropical moisture working into the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that.  This pattern will really pick up the 2nd week of October with numerous storm systems with much bigger cold snaps.  We will get into this on the next blog.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

September 27th-October 3rd:

A fairly warm start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  We will have waves across western KS that could fire off scattered thunderstorms.  Temperatures a little cooler late in the week with mainly dry conditions.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44