Happy Merry Christmas Eve, ha ha.  I am getting stuff done around the house.  Is it really Christmas again.  I feel like I just took the tree down from last year.  This life thing we go through is just flying by!!!!!!!!!!!  I guess that means enjoy each and everyday.  Well today looks like a pretty good day.  We have had a lot of clouds as yet another fast moving wave is passing by.  We had a wave yesterday that produced huge tornadoes across the SE US.  That was major severe weather outbreak for anytime of the year.  This wave today gave us a few random showers this morning and snow from Omaha to Des Moines.  However, the next couple of days look pretty good with highs near 60 in the Joplin metro.  So lets jump to our next system.  Our big upper level low digs out on Saturday.  Remember with the Heady Pattern we have a recurring pattern.  This is the same system we had back on November 9th, 10th and 11th.  So we sit around 46-47 days.

Saturday night 500

Look at the huge storm system.  The question is where is this guy going to go?  If he tracks out into eastern MO, it will produce wintry weather from the panhandles through central OK, up through SE KS, SW MO, KC into Iowa.  As of now (which we are still a few days out) this looks like the most likely track. However, if it goes farther south, the system will have less cold air and mainly just affect the southern states.  So there is a lot to watch.  On Saturday, we will mainly see rain in the central plains.

Saturday night Rain

Look at the heavy rains from Texas up into MO.  Some of these storms could be on the strong side in Texas and Arkansas but I think OK and MO will mainly have just heavy rains.  In pink is a wintry mix with blue being snow.  Look at the rain totals projected by Saturday night.

Saturday night rain totals

Along and south of I-44 could see 2-5″ of rain just by Saturday night.  Lets jump into Sunday as the colder air starts to work in.

Midday Sunday precip

On Sunday, we will still have rain south of I-44 with sleet and snow north and west of I-44. Heavy wintry weather in central and western OK.  This continues into Monday as the main upper level wave kicks out.

Monday 500

You can see the wave kicking out across NE Arkansas and SE MO.  This is just like it kicked out on November 11th but farther south due to the stronger Jet Stream.  So we are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  This would take the wintry weather NE into central MO.

Monday eve precip

You can see the heavy snow from central OK through central MO.  Most of this would be out of here by Tuesday morning.  Amounts would be very hard to peg down as we don’t know the exact track right now.  I would expect the band of sleet and snow to produce 3-6″ in most locations with some areas getting 6-12″ especially back in central OK.  A lot to watch and I will keep you updated.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Rest of the this week:  Mild with highs in the 50s and 60s through Saturday.  Rain increases late Christmas and Saturday.

December 27th-2nd:  Rain, sleet and snow on Sunday and Monday.  Cold through most of the week with rain and snow chances returning by the weekend.

January 3rd-9th:  Cool with rain and snow chances to start the week.  Cool temperatures stick around most of the week with rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday with our next storm system.

January 10th-16th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Cooling down for the weekend with rain and snow chances returning.

January 17th-23rd:  Cold with snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool through the first half of the week with mild temperatures returning for the second half.  Slight chances of rain on Thursday and Friday.