Good Friday morning!  I wanted to go over what is going on with the pattern as of late.  Remember, the pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until about October 10th.  When I say pattern, that means how storm systems will react for the next year.  Our pattern is influenced by El Nino and La Nina, but it is the pattern that will decide if we have an active winter and spring.  Will we have a hot summer and a lot of hurricanes?  Now, in the pattern we have a recurring cycle.  This years cycle is close to 50 days.  This cycle set up back in August but now is in full swing now that it is reacting to the new pattern.  Could we possibly go a third winter with less than 3″ of snow.  We have had a total of 4.5″ over the past two winters.  We average 16″ per winter.  That is just insane!  I am a huge snow lover and I am hoping for at least and average winter this year.  I really need about 2-3 more weeks to see how our cycle fully reacts with the new pattern.  Take a look at the upper level map on Thursday.

I marked several things on this map.  In the purple is the Jet Stream.  In the blue is the colder air sinking south, which is why we have been cool as of late.  In the orange is how we need storm systems to track for winter weather.

Encouraging thoughts: 

From what I have seen so far, we should have some good arctic blasts.  Obviously if you are super cold, then you will get snow is a storm system moves in.  We had three severe weather outbreaks in October, that means at least part of the pattern is pretty active.

Discouraging thoughts:

We have hardly had a drop of rain so far in November.

There is a lot to watch, so I will keep you updated.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Mild temperatures most of the week with rain chances Monday, Tuesday and Thursday.  Cooling down a bit next weekend.

November 19th-25th:  A cold start to the week with mild temperatures by the middle of the week.  Rain chances Wednesday through Friday with cooler temps by the weekend.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, then again on Friday and Saturday.

December 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with much colder temperatures working in the second half of the week.

December 10th-16th:  Cold through the week with rain or snow chances to start to the week.  Additional rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

December 17th-23rd:  Mainly a cold week with snow chances on Tuesday.

December 24th-30th:  Warming up for Christmas with some rain chances.  Mainly cold and dry the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS