Friday AM Blog: October should be an active month

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Comments Off on Friday AM Blog: October should be an active month

I hope everyone has had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good.  Work has been pretty good, but I have to admit the weather has been boring here in the Joplin area.  Of course I love nice weather so I can get outside and enjoy it, but I do like something to talk about when I am doing the weather at work.  All week long we have been dealing with mid and upper level clouds with a few sprinkles, oh joy! At least I have been able to get outside and get a stuff done over the past few days.  As of right now, just inside doing a little work.  At least my Jack the German Shepherd is getting some sleep, lol

Jack

 

Even though the new pattern has set, you have to remember the Jet Stream is still very weak and typically stays pretty far north this time of the year.  We just haven’t seen much action across the lower 48 over the past week or so.  Or shall I say we haven’t seen big storm system working through.  This will change over the next few weeks.  First off lets see what we are looking at.

The new 2015-2016 Heady Pattern is completely set.  Due to the my theories the Heady Pattern sets up each year right around September 20th.  This pattern will last until next August and then slowly morph into the next pattern for about a month.  Remember, the pattern is how storm systems will react over the next year.  Now the cycle is how often storm systems will repeat.  The cycle sets up depending on the the year anywhere from May through July.  This years cycle completely set up in early July.  This means we are ready roll, we have our new pattern and cycle.  Plus on top of this we have a very strong El Nino that will influence this years Heady Pattern.  Lets take a look at it.

El Nino

I usually look at the 3.4 index.  This is the second box down.  When you get an El Nino at 2.25 or greater, we are talking about one heck of an El Nino.  You can see we had a weak El Nino even last fall, winter, spring as well.  However, it really got ramped up over the summer months.  Starting next week the Jet Stream will start to see a few storm systems that will dip farther south into the central plains and then pull out into the eastern third of the country.  However, the models are still having a little hard time picking up on the details of this, they are models.  Here is a look at mid next week.

Next Wednesday

I think the actual jet will dig into the central plains.  However, it is the following week, the second week of October we start to see a series of storm systems digging in.  Now the models have zero clue what is going on.

October 7th

Here is a look at a model projection for October 7th.  I think is way underplaying the Jet Stream and the position.  I expect storm systems to really start digging into the central plains with plenty of rain chances through the middle of the month.  Plus I expect pretty big temperature swings and this will become the active stretch of the Heady Pattern that has a cycle length this year a little longer than this past years.

I as I continue to build this blog I will put detailed long range forecast up for wider locations with video blogs as well.  That will be coming very soon.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

 

Next Friday:  Mild with slight chances for rain.

Next Saturday:  Mild and partly sunny.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

I will go out 2 more weeks on my next blog!!!!!

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44

Thursday Blog: The Heady Pattern continues to evolve!

Monday Blog September 21st: The Heady Pattern is set! The cycle is set!