Good Friday morning!  I hope you have had a great week.  Mine has been pretty good.  Of course the week has flown right on by like all of them seem to the older you get.  We have had great weather all week for the first week of May.  The first week of May and really any week of May is historically a very active week for us.  However, this week has been calm as possibly can be across most of the lower 48.  Of course, you know this can’t last long.  We will see changes starting to move in on Mothers Day.  Remember with the Heady Pattern we are still in a 49.5 day cycle and will be for about another 4-6 weeks before we see a drastic switch which we will cover at that time.  This next system will kick off a series of systems that we will see for the rest of the month.  So lets cover this first one.

Sunday 500

Here is the upper level energy kicking out into the central plains on Sunday.  The placement of the energy will fire off storms across the central plains.  We will start seeing showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.

Sunday Pm

We should have some severe storms across most of KS, SW MO and down through OK.  However our severe weather chances increase on Monday.

Cape Monday

You can see where the most unstable airmass will set-up on Monday afternoon.

Monday PM

Severe weather chances on Monday increase NE KS, SE KS, Eastern OK, Western AR and western MO on Monday.  We will have another wave working through on Wednesday and Thursday as well.  I will keep you updated.

#headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  A few left over showers on Tuesday with our next wave working in with more thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.  However, our chances will be scattered!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.