I hope you are having a great Friday so far.   Mine is going decent with as we are almost to the weekend.  I am getting some work done and stuff done around the house before I head into work.  I am also fighting a migraine that has been killing me the past two days as my sleep pattern has been off this week with severe weather.  It looks like again tonight we will have showers and thunderstorms with at least a low severe threat across portions of the central plains.  Lets take a look at this system.

500 today

Here is our storm system sliding down form the northern plains.  Most of the energy is well north but you can see the Low I put on the map.  Plus the second low that passed a couple of days ago.  I put that on there so you can see where we are at in the pattern very easily.  Lets go back to March 25th.

march 25th

In March, you can see both systems with a much stronger Jet Stream back in the early spring.  Lets go back 2 cycles to February 5th.

Feb 5th

Also a much stronger Jet Stream with the two systems working through.  However, we are working toward the summer months and the Jet Stream is weakening quickly.  This is why our severe weather season is usually dead by June 10th.  We still get afternoon pop-up storms in the summer with some being severe, but the big severe weather outbreaks are usually done by about June 10th.  We still have about 4 weeks to go and then things will calm down.  We have had 8 severe weather events this spring season.  Now when I say a severe weather event, I mean in the Joplin TV viewing area we had severe thunderstorm warnings or tornado warnings.  We usually average about 8-10 in a season.  I was thinking 10-14 for this season and we should hit that mark being above average.  As a cold front drops in this evening scattered thunderstorms will pop-up in the 3-4 pm time frame from NE MO-NW MO-NE KS back through central KS.  These storms will drift SE through the evening hours with the front.  Here is a look at about 6-7 pm.

7pm precip

I do expect some of these to be severe with some large hail.  However, the atmosphere isn’t that unstable, so a lot of severe just won’t happen.  The threat this evening is hail and some gusty winds and that is about it.  The surface winds will be out of the SW meaning it will be very hard to get any storms to rotate.  These storms will continue to drop SE from 7-9 pm.

8pm precip

As the thunderstorms continue to drop SE, the severe threat will continue to drop as we lose the heating of the day.  by 9-11 pm, the severe threat will be very low as the thunderstorms continue to fall apart.

9-10pm precip

Behind this front, temperatures will be much cooler for the entire central plains over the weekend.  Check out my updated long range forecast below.  #headypattern

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next week:  Showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.  Some of these could be strong to severe, especially in OK, AR and TX.  A little cooler but nice on Thursday and Friday.  Warming up for the weekend ahead of our next storm system.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm with thunderstorms chances with two systems working through from Sunday through Wednesday.  We will have a severe chances with both of these systems.  Staying warm the second half of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.

May 29th-June 4th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances for Monday and Tuesday that could be severe.  Staying warm through the week with a nice first weekend of June.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Temperatures will cool down a bit for the middle of the week before we rebound late in the week with slight chances for thunderstorms for the weekend.

June 12th-18th:  Really heating up this week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 19th-25th:  The first half of the week will be hot with slight chances for thunderstorms Monday through Wednesday.  Cooling down a bit for the rest of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Saturday.

June 26th-July 2nd:  A mild start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Thunderstorm chances work into the forecast for Thursday, Friday and Saturday which is the holiday weekend.

July 3rd-9th:  Hot with scattered thunderstorms for the 4th and 5th. Staying hot most of the week with slight chances for thunderstorms again for the weekend.

July 10th-16th:  Starting the week mild with a warming trend through the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Friday.  However, most of the week will be dry.

July 17th-23rd:  Another hot week with very slight chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday.

July 24th- 30th:  Hot with slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.