Good Evening!  I hope you guys have had a great week so far.  Well I guess it is almost the weekend thankfully and it has been definitely on the wet side over the past week.  A lot of areas have picked up 5-7″ of rain over the past week.  We will continue to see very heavy rains tonight, tomorrow and Sunday.  We are right on track with the Heady Pattern.  We will stay in this current pattern through the summer into the early fall.  However, the cycle (distance between storm systems) will start to shift by mid summer. Let me show you where we are at in the pattern with our next big rain event rolling in.

You can see this massive system pushing into the central plains.  Now, this is the exact same system we saw back on Feb. 28th.  We also had severe weather the last time this rolled through.

So we are right on target with where we should be with this system.  So lets dig into it.  Thunderstorms really get going mid to late evening.  Here is a look at 11pm tonight.

Now any severe weather tonight will mainly stay south of the region along the warm front.  However, as the warm front lifts north tonight, our airmass will become a little bit more unstable.  Lets move to Saturday AM.

Heavy amounts of rain with a low severe threat.  If we had any severe storms the main threat will be hail across the region.  Periods of showers and thunderstorms Saturday with heavy amounts of rain.  Lets move to Saturday evening.

The heaviest rain will push east on Saturday night, but we will still have on and off showers on Sunday.

We will work on the much colder side of the system on Sunday as you can see the snow not that far to the west.  We will have a couple days to dry out before the next rain chances roll in on Wednesday and Thursday.

Remember to check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

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#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week: A cool start to the week with drier conditions working in for Monday and Tuesday.  Our next system works in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional showers and thunderstorms.  However, at this time it doesn’t look severe.  Rain chances sneak back in for the weekend.

May 7th-13th: Warming up for the beginning of the week with thunderstorms chances on Wednesday and Thursday.  Dry and a little cooler the rest of the week.

May 14th-20th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms chances on Tuesday and Friday.  We will have a severe threat with both of these systems and temperatures stay fairly warm through the week.

May 21st-27th:  Warm with thunderstorms that could be severe on Monday and Tuesday.  A second system right behind with possible severe thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  A little cooler and dry for the first half of the weekend.

May 28th-June 3rd:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday which is memorial day.  We will stay warm most of the week with severe thunderstorms possible Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

June 4th-10th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Thursday and Friday.  Warm through the week.

June 11th-17th:  Hot and mainly dry through the week.

June 18th-24th:  A hot start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  A little cooler for the middle of the week with temperatures warming up late in the week.

We will have a stretch of hot temperatures from June 8th-12th, the 15th-26th of June will also be another very hot stretch. I will look into July and August in my next blog.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS