I hope you have had a great week and probably a shorter week with the 4th of July holiday.  Mine has been pretty good.  It has flown right on by as I have been very busy with work since my Colorado road trip last week.  Plus have fun over the 4th of July holiday.  I was very busy last night with all of the severe weather we had here in SW MO and SE KS.  Now I am getting ready for my next road trip in Montana which I will keep you updated on.  However, we still have more thunderstorms that are going to affect us over the next couple of days.  This is actually a little strange for this time of the year.  We do get some complexes of thunderstorms in the summer months.  However, we usually don’t get much severe weather in the summer months.  More thunderstorms tonight across the central and southern plains.

Midnight

We have a weak little stationary front that will continue to fire off thunderstorms across OK and AR tonight.  Some of these could be on the strong to severe side in central OK.  These storms will try to work into SE KS and SW MO by midnight.  However, these are mainly just looking strong right now.  As we work through the overnight hours, the thunderstorms will shift a little farther north along the KS/OK state line and then drive east into SW MO by morning.

Morning

I expect to have scattered thunderstorms through the morning hours again across KS, OK, MO and AR like we have had over the past several mornings.  Then we will break out and have partly sunny skies with temperatures heating up into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees.  Pop-up afternoon thunderstorms will fire again along this weak front.

Saturday afternoon

Some of these Saturday PM could also be on the strong side as well.  This is all caused by little weak waves that are rotating through.  The Jet stream is well north, but we have these weak waves that are firing off these storms.

Saturday 500

Remember we have been in the same pattern since last September.  We will stay in this current pattern until this coming September.  However, we have now switched into our new cycle.  Or shall I say our new cycle has begun.  Our old 49 day cycle will still show itself for a couple more months as it slowly dies and the new cycle will slowly get stronger and stronger.  We also have La Nina that is finally now after a little back and forth play getting stronger.  This will also help our new cycle get much stronger at a quicker pace.  Of course I will keep you updated on this.

For the rest of the summer:  We can expect the heat and humidity with above average temperatures.  The rain will slowly taper less and less through the months of July and August.

Early Fall:  Will be above average temperatures with actually below average precip.

Late Fall:  Average temperatures with below average precip.

Winter:  Below average temperatures, so a cold winter.  With above average precip, meaning more snow.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Hot and humid through the week once again.  We will have chances for thunderstorms on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

July 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with the hot temperatures working back in by the middle of the week.  Warm temperatures to end the week with thunderstorms chances from Wednesday through Saturday.

July 24th- 30th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Hot and dry the second half of the week.

July 31st-August 6th:  Hot and dry most of the week.

August 7th-13th:  Hot and dry most of the week.  A few thunderstorms possible by Friday and Saturday.

August 14th-20th:  Hot once again with thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Saturday.

August 21st-27th:  Warm with hot temperatures working in late in the week.  Just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Saturday.