Good Friday evening!  I hope you have had a great week.  Mine has been pretty good, but very busy.  I have been doing a ton of work and doctor appointments with my migraines.  I did a lot of cleaning around the house before work today and I have figured out I don’t like clean much.  I feel satisfied after it is done, but I really don’t like doing it, lol.  At least the temperatures will stay nice tomorrow and I can get outside and enjoy it.  We are going to see the clouds and a few showers, but I can get outside and enjoy it.  So are you ready for spring?  Most of us haven’t had a winter.  In Joplin we are sitting at 2″ for the winter.  2.5″ is the lowest amount Joplin has ever had since records have been recorded with snow back in the 1940s.  We did have 2.8″ in the 2001-2012 winter, but we are super low this year.  So would you like to see a big snow or just skip it and move right into spring?  To be honest, I wouldn’t mind having a good snow before spring hits.  I love snow and I have seen very little of it this winter.

So lets look at the Heady Pattern.  The pattern sets up each and every year from September 21st-September 28th.  In this pattern we have a recurring cycle which can range anywhere from about 42-65 days long.  This year we are sitting on about 49 days long.  Now the cycle DOESN’T set up when the pattern sets.  I have proven this over the past several years.  I have a very detailed method of finding out when the cycle will set-up each year which I know you don’t want to hear about.  The new cycle can set up as early as late April to early May and as late the beginning of August.  This years cycle started in early July.  I have a pretty good idea when the next cycle will set-up and what the cycle length will be give or take 3 days.  However, I don’t want to give that information out just yet as I have a few readers that will take credit to it, lol.  So I am going to keep it to myself for now.

So lets look at what is going on right now.  The central plains has had very mild temperatures with near record highs across the region over the past few days.  Also we have had very windy days across most of the central plains.  A weak wave is working through the area this weekend.

Precip Saturday

This will produce some showers Saturday afternoon, night and Sunday morning.  The best chances for scattered showers will be eastern KS, eastern OK, central and eastern TX, AR and MO.  As this wave works through it will cool our temperatures back down to where we should be for this time of the year on Sunday and Monday.  However, temperatures look great on Saturday.

Temps Saturday

You can see the warmer temperatures surging north in Nebraska, Iowa and even through the Ohio River Valley.  The next wave for the central plains is on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This is a tricky little guy as we need to see how much moisture we can get, where is he going to track and how strong will he be.  Well each cycle likes to mirror every other cycle a little bit more, so lets look at two cycles go with this one.  So here is next Tuesday night.

Tuesday night 500

If this storm can wrap up like this, it could be a strong system.  If it stays as an open wave, it will be a weaker system.  That is something we need to watch.  Lets go back to November, 18th.

Wednesday Nov. 18th

Here is the exact same system two cycles ago.  This is 99 days ago which is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  You can see this same system but a little farther north as it should have been when the Jet Stream was a little weaker.  So what could this produce?  I think this will produce rain and snow across the central plains, lets look at Tuesday night.

Tuesday evening precip

Lets go into Wednesday morning.

Wednesday morning precip

If this system can get enough moisture and doesn’t track as an open wave, then it should have a band of snow on the backside of the system.  It would work out by Wednesday afternoon.

Wednesday PM precip

So this is something we want to watch over the next few days and see if this comes together or if it doesn’t.  However, something to watch.  Check out the updated long range forecast below.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

Next week:  Near average temperatures with rain and snow chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Staying cool the rest of the week with rain and snow chances returning for the weekend.

February 28th-March 5th:  A cool start to the week with rain and snow chances on Sunday.  Staying cool through the middle of the week with mild temperatures working in  by the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  Cool with rain chances on Sunday, then just slight chances for rain on Monday and Tuesday.  Mild temperatures return for the second half of the week with thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

March 13th-19th:  Mild most of the week with some showers on Monday.  The rest of the week should be dry until thunderstorms on Saturday.

March 20th-26th:  Thunderstorms to start the week for the weekend.  Another system rolls in on Tuesday with thunderstorms that could be severe.  Cooler with showers on Wednesday and Thursday.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.