Good Friday night/Saturday morning.  Enjoy the colder temperatures for the weekend, ugh.  However, it is almost Thanksgiving so it is time to have this kind of weather.  I wanted to give you a quick overview of what I am looking at for the winter.  I will give you specifics on my forecast here in about a week and a half, but here is the general overview.  Remember, the Heady Pattern set-up from September 20th through October 10th.  When I say the pattern, that means how storm systems react.  Until next September 20th, this pattern will be in place.  Now the cycle length is how often does the same looking system return.  Last year was a length of 57.5 days.  This year is shorter and is just shy of 50 days.

I found this pattern when I was sophomore in college back in 1999.  I used to show my professor my ideas and he would just look at me like this isn’t possible.  However, I continued to work on it over the next few years.  In 2001, I started working with Gary Lezak out of Kansas City.  I did morning weather in Kansas City back in those days.  Gary also noticed that pattern and we worked hard on research together over the next several years.  Gary calls the pattern the LRC, and I call it the Heady Pattern.  Obviously we have very similar ideas but also have some different theories on how things work.  The craziest thing is that we are the only two people who have discovered this.

So lets look at this winter.  When I look at our temperatures, I expect us to be below average this winter.

December will be fairly cold.  January most likely will be near average, while February we drop below average once again.  What about snow?  We average 16″ of snow.  However, two winters ago we set the record low with 2″.  Last year we only had 2.5″  That is an amazing low total of 4.5″ over the past two winters.  I am not sure the number I am going to shoot for yet this winter.  However, I do think we will be average or a little above.

We will dig into this much more over the next week.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Decent temperatures through the week with temperatures mainly in the 50s.  We will warm up a bit on Friday into Saturday.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on Sunday.  then another system by mid week with a few showers or possible snow showers.

December 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with much colder temperatures working in the second half of the week.

December 10th-16th:  Cold through the week with rain or snow chances to start to the week.  Additional rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

December 17th-23rd:  Mainly a cold week with snow chances on Tuesday.

December 24th-30th:  Warming up for Christmas with some rain chances.  Mainly cold and dry the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS