Pattern Background:

The pattern sets up each and every year from September 20th until October 10th.  The pattern is how storm systems will react.  In the pattern, there is a recurring cycle that takes place.  The cycle length can be from 40 up to 65 days long.  If we look at this years cycle, it is about 48 days long.  That means todays weather is similar to 48 days ago and 48 days from now.  I have been working on this pattern since 1999 in college when I noticed a snowstorm in Lawrence, KS had an odd look to it.  We had another snowstorm about two months later that had that same odd look to it.  A couple months later we had a severe weather outbreak that again had that same odd look.  It was the pattern that gave it that odd look, but the cycle that spread these storms out equally.  Since that point in time, I have been working on this pattern and find something new each and every year. 

We have been so dry that past couple of month, but something has to break.  We are entering a stretch of the pattern that will most likely give us arctic air and some wintry weather.  I put together a video blog to help explain what I am looking at.

I will keep you up to date on all of the changes.  Remember, my long range forecast is posted below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Then a stretch of nice weather through Thursday.  An arctic front drops through Thursday night and we could see a light wintry mix on Friday.

December 24th-30th:  A cold start to the week with temperatures below average for late December.  We need to see when this wave kicks out.  So, rain or snow chances on Christmas and the 26th.  Another system moves in by the weekend.

December 31st-January 6th:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures returning by mid week.  Also rain chances on Thursday and Friday.  If we can get any cool air, we could mix or change to snow on Thursday.  Cold temperatures into the weekend.

January 7th-14th:  Mainly a cool week with slight chances for rain on Thursday.

January 15th-20th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cool for a few days before mild temperatures return late in the week.

January 21st-27th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.  Much colder the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS