Good Friday afternoon!  I hope you are having a great Friday so far.  Mine has been pretty good, except for fighting a migraine which is nothing new for me.  I fight these guys all the time and have my entire life.  However, I can type still so I am doing okay.

Wow, what a hot and humid week, ugh!  We do have pretty big changes moving in over the next few days.  We are still right on track with the Heady Pattern as we have been slowly morphing from the old to the new pattern which will be in  place here by the 3rd week of September.  However, the old cycle is becoming less and less dominant each week as the new cycle continues to get stronger which will here kill the old 49-50 day cycle over the next several weeks.  I have been long range forecasting off of a mix of the old and new and will do a complete switch to the new cycle here in a few weeks.

Well, it is Friday and that means the weekend is here!  I hope you have big plans to enjoy the weekend.  If you have kids, then most of your kids will start school this coming week.  My son Christian will be in 2nd grade with blows my mind.

Showers and thunderstorms have been rolling across the central plains with a cold front that is dipping south.  This has been the trend all summer with cold front digging pretty far south.  This usually doesn’t happen during the summer months but we will take it.  During the afternoon, we will continue to see scattered thunderstorms.

Early evening

We could see some heavy rains across the I-44 corridor from central MO stretching SW into central OK.  However, the overall average will be from 1/2-1″ of rain.  The showers and thunderstorms will continue to shift south tonight.


On Saturday, all of the showers and thunderstorms will stay south into AR, SE OK and south into TX.  The thunderstorms like to pop-up where the front is.

Saturday Pm

You can see what is causing all of this in the upper levels of the atmosphere.

500 Saturday

We have a wave dipping south across the central plains brings south some cooler air with moisture in place along the Gulf with some tropical moisture.  However, the front starts to lift back north on Monday.


Because the front lifts back north and stalls, showers and thunderstorms will be possible through most of nextt week.

Make sure you check out my long range forecast below.



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Next Week:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day.

August 21st-27th:  Warm through most of the week with thunderstorm chances through Tuesday.  The middle of the week should be dry with a few scattered thunderstorms returning by the weekend.

August 28th-September 3rd:  A hot week with just slight chances for thunderstorms on Thursday and Friday.

September 4th-10th:  Hot most of the week with temperatures cooling down just a bit by the weekend.  Thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday.

September 11th-17th:  A warm start to the week with mild temperatures settling in the rest of the week.  Rain chances on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.  The rest of the week will be on the dry side.