I hope you had a great weekend!  I had a great weekend.  My better half (Stacey) and my Son (Christian) and I did a ton around the the house on Saturday.  Yesterday we went to an air show at the airport here in Joplin.  I was completely impressed with old planes and all of the tricks they were doing.  Stacey enjoyed the long lines for the her frozen lemonades and of course Christian had to spend time in the bouncy house.  The weather here in Joplin was great all weekend long.  We had temperatures in the 70s through the weekend which is a little bit below normal for this time of the year.  We actually had pretty good showers and thunderstorms with a cold front on Friday evening that cooled us down for the weekend. Things look pretty calm for the next several days.  We are in what I call the boring part of the Heady Pattern.  Now later in the winter this could be an active stretch, but right now this is a boring stretch.

The new 2015-2016 Heady Pattern is completely set.  Due to the my theories the Heady Pattern sets up each year right around September 20th.  This pattern will last until next August and then slowly morph into the next pattern for about a month.  Remember, the pattern is how storm systems will react over the next year.  Now the cycle is how often storm systems will repeat.  The cycle sets up depending on the the year anywhere from May through July.  This years cycle completely set up in early July.  This means we are ready roll, we have our new pattern and cycle.  Plus on top of this we have a very strong El Nino that will influence this years Heady Pattern.  Lets take a look at it.

El Nino

I usually look at the 3.4 index.  This is the second box down.  When you get an El Nino at 2.25 or greater, we are talking about one heck of an El Nino.  You can see we had a weak El Nino even last fall, winter, spring as well.  However, it really got ramped up over the summer months.  I am sure you have seen many forecasts already for the fall, winter and spring across the nation for the El Nino winter.  These forecasts are based of historical El Nino events and they terrible!!!!!!!!!!!  Most climo forecasters assume with El Nino that the lower 48 will be warmer that normal and wetter than normal in spots.  Here is a look at what most forecasters expect with El Nino.

precip

temps

However, this ISN’T the case.  It all has to do with the Heady pattern.  What ever the pattern is will tell us who will be warmer, colder, wetter and dryer.  Now, El Nino does influence how the pattern sets up some, but just because we are in El Nino, it doesn’t mean this is what we are going to see.  Here in the midwest I have seen very warm and dry winters and very cold and wet winters with El Nino.

Now that the new Heady Pattern is completely set, I can really study it and get a good grasp on what we will see across the nation.  I already see an active stretch in the pattern.  This active stretch in the pattern will affect the midwest in the 2nd, 3rd and part of the 4th week of October.  However, for today lets focus on what we will see for the next couple of weeks.  Remember, I said we are in the boring part of the pattern.  Now, this could be a more exciting time down the road as the Jet Stream gets a little stronger toward the winter months.  Here is an upper level map that shows storm system energy and the jet stream at roughly 18,000 feet.

August 4th

This is back on Aug 4th.  This is the part of the pattern that we will be in for about the next week and a half.  Our cycle this year is a bit longer than last years 47 day cycle.  Now the map above shows the old pattern but the new cycle.  Because the Jet Stream hasn’t gotten to much stronger we will continue to see ridging across the southern US keeping temperatures warm with most of the storm systems across the Great Lakes and the Pacific NW as they rotate into the northern Plains.  Their are some hints of some tropical moisture working into the Gulf of Mexico, so we will watch that.  This pattern will really pick up the 2nd week of October with numerous storm systems with much bigger cold snaps.  We will get into this on the next blog.

HERE IS YOUR LONG RANGE FORECAST FOR THE MISSOURI, KANSAS, OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS.  (I will extend this out in coverage and date here shortly)

September 27th-October 3rd:

A fairly warm start to the week with slight chances for thunderstorms through the middle of the week.  We will have waves across western KS that could fire off scattered thunderstorms.  Temperatures a little cooler late in the week with mainly dry conditions.

October 4th-10th:

A mild start to the week with warmer temperatures working in for the middle of the week.  Showers and thunderstorms for the second half of the week.  This system should bring in much cooler temperatures for the weekend.

October 11th-17th:

A cold start to the week, but it should be dry.  We will see a mid week warm up with our next system working in with rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  We will see another big cool down behind this system lasting into the weekend.

When I say hot:  90+

When I say warm:  75-89

When I say mild:  60-74

When I say cool:  45-59

When I say cold:  Below 44