I hope you are having a great Monday so far.  Mine has been good but very busy.  I have to make sure to say happy birthday to my son Christian, who is somehow already 7 years old today.  And of course on my sons birthday we have a severe weather threat, that only sense.

The highest threat for severe weather is across eastern OK, most of AR for later today.  Eastern KS and most of MO is also under a severe threat, but just a little lower threat.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will work up I-44 over the next several hours.  Most of these will stay under the severe level. Here is a look at early afternoon.

1pm precip

By late afternoon, this first batch will push into central and eastern MO and most areas will clear out just a bit.

5pm precip

We will start to see much stronger severe storms at this time firing up in SE KS and south into NE and north central OK.  These should become severe with large hail and gusty winds.  We can’t rule out and isolated tornado or two but the wind profiles aren’t the best right now.  These thunderstorms will work into a line as they work east through the evening hours.  Here is a look at 7pm.

7pm precip

By 7pm.  The highest tornado threat will be in central and southern AR.  Those storms will be lifting NE and scattered but need to be watched.  In NE OK and SE KS, these storms will be mainly a wind and hail threat with a lower tornado threat.  However, I am always watching it to see how things come together.

9pm precp

By 9pm, as the storms work into SW MO, they will start to greatly weaken.  Also in central AR the storms should switch over to mainly wind and hail threat at this time.  I will keep you updated

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Showers and thunderstorms that could be severe on Sunday and Monday.  A few left over showers on Tuesday with our next wave working in with more thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Thunderstorm chances continue into the weekend.  However, our chances will be scattered!

May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Sunday that could be severe.  Nice mild temperatures settle in through the middle of the week.  Warming up with thunderstorms for Friday and Saturday that could be severe.

May 22nd-28th:  Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Mild temperatures the second half of the week.

May 29th-June4th:  Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week.  Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.

June 5th-11th:  Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.

June 12th-18th:  Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.