Good Monday evening!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend.  I have been out of the office for over a week at a weather conference in Kansas City.  It was a great conference and enjoyed it greatly.

Our weather has been great over the past few days.  Now we are having some scattered thunderstorms that have been working through and these will continue through the overnight hours.  Let me show you what we will see later this evening.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will drop through this evening and tonight.  Some of these could be strong with a possible severe thunderstorm with the main threat being hail and wind.  Now, most of these will just stay on the strong side but I will watch it.

We will really heat up over the next few days.  The Jet Steam is well north as we will be under a ridge of high pressure.

Now, by the weekend we will see a storm system rotating across the northern plains.  This will drop a cold front in with chances for showers and thunderstorms.  Take a look at this system.

Now remember, we are and have been a 57 day cycle since last July.  So lets go back one cycle to May 3rd and you can see this same storm system rolling through.

This system will drop a front near the area giving us scattered thunderstorm through the holiday weekend.  Some of the storms could even be strong to severe.  Here is midday Sunday.  I am just pulling one day so you can see the scattered thunderstorms across the region.

So of course I will keep my eyes on the holiday weekend forecast over the next few days.

What is to come?  Well it looks like we will stay in a weak El Nino through the fall and into the winter months.  That means the new cycle length will most likely fall in the 50-55 day range.  The new cycle will begin its morphing stage from the old into the new here over the next month or so.  During the morphing process we will also morph from the old pattern and into the new pattern from August until it is completely set by the beginning of October.  I have over the past few years developed a process to be able to tell when and see these changes take place.  I also have a mathematic process on this to help me see the new pattern take place.  We will discuss this in greater details over the next couple of months.

Doug

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dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with scattered thunderstorms through Wednesday.  Temperatures heat up for the second half of the week and mainly dry.

July 16th-22nd:  Main a hot week with high in the 90s to near 100 degrees.  We will have afternoon pop-up thunderstorms on Monday through Friday.

July 23rd-29th:  A hot start to the week with highs near 100.  However, cooling into the 80s for the second half of the week.  A few scattered thunderstorms from Monday through Thursday.

July 30th-August 5th:  A hot week with high near 100 if not into the 100s.  Very slight chances for thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday.

August 6th-12th:  Another hot week with highs in the 90s to near 100.  A few pop-up storms on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

August 13th-19th:  Mainly a hot week with highs into the 90s.  Thunderstorm chances on Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

August 20th-26th:  A hot first half of the week but a warm second half.  Thunderstorms or pop-up storms Monday through Thursday.

August 27th-September 2nd:  A warm start to the week with a hot finish with high near 100 degrees.  Mainly dry through the week.

 I will extend the long range forecast through the entire summer here in the next day or two.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS