Good Monday night!  I hope your weekend was fantastic!  Mine was pretty good.  I hung out with my boy and did a ton around the house.  I have been repainting the house.  Well, I have been painting hallways and bedrooms and touching up a lot of spots through the family room and kitchen that needed to seriously be touched up.  However, I think it is look pretty good.  I can’t wait for the nice spring weekends so I can get outside and do some seriously landscaping and I want to build a patio that I have in mind.  I love doing projects!

The temperatures were great today and will be again for us on Tuesday.  However, we do have changes rolling in.  Let me know show you what is going on.

In the purple is the Jet Stream.  I also in red circled our wave rolling through over the next 24 hours.  Now remember, we are in a 57 day cycle.  So if you go back 57 days we had this same system working through.  The difference is we had some blocking to the north which allowed cold Canadian and Arctic air to dive south.

The wave is in the same spot, but we just aren’t getting the blocking this time around.  This is similar to what we had two cycles ago in November.  The end result will be a fast moving system with a few scattered thunderstorms.

During the afternoon, we could have a few random pop-up storms, but the better shot will hold off until Tuesday night.

We won’t have many storms that pop-up late evening and during the overnight hours.  However, the ones that do could be on the strong side with a low severe threat in our area.  This is something I will watch through the day and see how it all comes together.

We will see a couple dry systems pass through later this week, but rain chances will hold off until next Sunday and Monday.

Now, we really aren’t going to have to wait for severe weather season.  We just haven’t had a winter at all and the Gulf of Mexico is warm.  Due to the temperatures not dropping off much this winter, we will cruise right into severe weather season.

My First Take:  We aren’t going to have event after event.  Meaning I think we will have about average severe weather events which usually is in the 8-12 range of events in a severe weather season.  However, the ones we do get could be on the very powerful side.  So that is something I want to dig into more on my next few blogs.

Gary Lezak (Chief Meteorologist KSHB(NBC) in Kansas City) and I have been working on a business together for a while now.  Check out weather2020.com we have our long range pattern now built into a model where you can plug in any zip code and get a specific forecast months in advance.  It is pretty cool!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with thunderstorm chances late Sunday and into Monday.  Briefly cooler on Tuesday and Wednesday with warmer temperatures right back in for the rest of the week.  Rain chances again late Thursday through Saturday AM.

March 12th-18th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures work in with this system and leftover showers for Wednesday.  Mild temperatures return late in the week with thunderstorm chances for the weekend.  Some of these could be strong to severe.

March 19th-25th:  A mild start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and rain on Monday.  Another fairly strong system moves in on Wednesday and Thursday with additional thunderstorm chances that could be strong to severe.  Cooling down for the weekend.

March 26th-April 1st:  A cool start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures by late weekend with rain chances for the weekend.

April 2nd-8th:  A warm start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday.  Cooling down for a couple of days but warming back up by the weekend.

April 9th-15th:  A warm start to the week with thunderstorm chances on Sunday and Monday.  Cooler for the middle of the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday.