Good Monday night!  I hope you had a fantastic weekend.  Mine was pretty good.  My son and I shot down to Tulsa to hang out with my best friend and his family.  We packed a ton into the weekend which always seems to be the case.  Yesterday before we left, we shot off some rockets.  You remember the type you had to build in middles school.  Christian loved it!

Well as you can see it was cloudy and gloomy.  This will be the case over the next couple of days.  A cold front will roll through Tuesday night and give us more showers.

Thankfully, our temperatures will warm up the second half of the week.  However, another cold front with showers on late Friday.

This will cool us right back down for the weekend.

 

Pattern:

Now, in the pattern we have a recurring cycle.  This years cycle is close to 50 days.  This cycle set up back in August but now is in full swing now that it is reacting to the new pattern.  Could we possibly go a third winter with less than 3″ of snow.  We have had a total of 4.5″ over the past two winters.  We average 16″ per winter.  That is just insane!  I am a huge snow lover and I am hoping for at least and average winter this year.  I really need about 2-3 more weeks to see how our cycle fully reacts with the new pattern.  Take a look at the upper level map on Thursday.  Lets jump out a couple of weeks to about November 29th.  This is when we get back into the active stretch of the pattern.  Remember we saw three severe weather events which is high in the month of October.

See the two storms I circled.  This is going to be our first shot at wintry weather.  Lets go back to last time these rolled through on October 10th.

We will be digging into all of this much more over the next couple of weeks.  I will do my winter forecast here in a week or two.

Doug

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#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

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LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warming up at the beginning of the week with rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.  Temperatures cool off for the holiday.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Mainly a cool week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday, then again on Friday and Saturday.

December 3rd-9th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday with much colder temperatures working in the second half of the week.

December 10th-16th:  Cold through the week with rain or snow chances to start to the week.  Additional rain and snow chances on Wednesday and Thursday.

December 17th-23rd:  Mainly a cold week with snow chances on Tuesday.

December 24th-30th:  Warming up for Christmas with some rain chances.  Mainly cold and dry the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS