Good Monday evening! I hope you have had a great Monday and evening as well. Mine has been pretty good, just working away and trying to get as much done here before the 9:00 news begins here shortly. I wanted to make sure to get a blog out about our severe weather chances on Tuesday evening night as that seems to be the big talk around the area today. At least for tonight, most of us will be calm. We can’t rule out a few thunderstorms trying to pop-up across north central OK and pushing NE. I am watching to see if a few can get going over the next few hours. So at least a few isolated storms with minimal severe threat is possible for the overnight hours tonight.
It is Tuesday afternoon and evening that we really need to watch. We have a low threat across MO and AR with an elevated threat for severe weather in eastern KS and eastern OK. Central KS and central OK are stuck in the high risk for severe weather. Lets break this down, here is our system pushing in Tuesday evening.
You can see the massive system pushing out into the central plains. This will create a strong set-up for severe weather between 3-5pm across central KS.
The map above is showing our cape or how unstable or juicy the atmosphere will be. You can see the prime areas that will be targeted during the afternoon and evening. I also in very paint fashion added the fronts and circled the prime spot for severe weather to pop-up for you. Storm will fire between 3-5pm with some supercells that could have some tornadoes with them across central OK and central KS. The storms will stay fairly isolated through the 5-7pm time.
Between 7-10pm, these storms will become a huge complex and really start plowing east. They should make it to the MO/KS state line around 9 or 10pm. At this time the tornado threat is still present but it will start to slowly shift to a high wind and hail threat.
After 10pm, the storms will continue pushing east and most likely severe. However, the tornado threat will continue to drop with the main threat becoming wind and hail after 10pm.
These storms will continue to push east and eventually weaken through the overnight hours. I will continue to keep you updated.
Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady
LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.
Next Week: A mild and nice start to the week with thunderstorm chances returning for Wednesday and Thursday. Cooling down a bit again with mainly dry conditions heading into the weekend.
May 8th-14th: A warm start to the week with slight chances for storms on Sunday. Staying warm most of the week with thunderstorms and a good shot at being severe on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday as two waves work through the area. This is probably going to be a big hyped event!
May 15th-21st: Warm with thunderstorms on Sunday. Mild temperatures Monday and Tuesday with slight chances for storms on Tuesday. Warming back up the rest of the week with thunderstorm chances on Friday and Saturday that could be severe.
May 22nd-28th: Warm through the first half of the week with thunderstorms on Tuesday and Wednesday. Mild temperatures the second half of the week.
May 29th-June4th: Mild temperatures with very slight chances for storms to start the week. Warm the rest of the week with better chances for storms on Thursday.
June 5th-11th: Warm with thunderstorm chances on Monday and Tuesday. Staying warm through most of the week with additional thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Saturday.
June 12th-18th: Warm with slight chances for thunderstorms each day this week as we work into more of a summertime pattern.