Good Monday night!  I hope you had a great weekend and start to the work week.  I had a great weekend as Stacey, my son and I went to Kansas City to see my mom and do a few things around the city.  Being born and raised there, I love to go back as much as possible and hang out.  Stacey and I went out to dinner with my mentor Bryan Busby (Chief Meteorologist KMBC-TV in Kansas City) and had a great time catching up.  I met Bryan when I was 8 years old and went down to the TV station and bugged him my entire childhood.

Doug and Bryan

Once we got back home, Christian and I worked on hitting the ball.  He is getting much better and when he connect he is hitting with a little power this year.  We have to decide if he is going to play another year of T-Ball or machine pitch.

At least the weather has been great with fantastic temperatures.  However, it will be a much cooler week than what we had last week.  We also have a storm system working through the southern plains.  Lets take a look.

500 Tuesday

Look at the strong upper level low right across northern Texas and southern Oklahoma on Tuesday.  This low really tightens up and gets stronger as it pushes east into Wednesday.  However, this is right on track with the Heady Pattern.  Remember, we have been consistently in a 49 day cycle since roughly the 3rd week of July.  We are in the 5th cycle of this current cycle length.  Remember this isn’t just here in the central US.  This is everywhere in the US, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans, across the pond and wherever you want to go in the northern hemisphere.  In the southern hemisphere we also have the Heady Pattern going on down under.  However, it is at a different cycle length this year as they are sitting at a little longer length of a cycle.  I never post the extensive research I have done on this pattern.  I have great data and even a model that I have developed over the past few years.  However, you guys want to know what is going to happen, not pages of mathematical equations and charts.  But you can see where this storm fits in the pattern.  Remember, every other cycle like to mirror each other a little more in the winter months.  So lets go back to November 18th.

November 18th

You can see this exact same system, just a little farther north due to seasonal changes in the Jet Stream.  Lets look at what to expect.  Scattered showers and thunderstorms for most of the central and southern plains.  Showers by Tuesday morning with heavy rains in southern Oklahoma and Texas.

Tuesday pm precip

Joplin north will be just light showers.  South of Joplin with be moderate rain and then thunderstorms as you work farther south.  As the colder air works in aloft (but just above the surface) rain will mix and change over to a very heavy wet snow.  This will be across SW MO, northern Arkansas and eastern OK.  Lets move to Tuesday night.

Tuesday night precip

You can see how the blue is mixing in on the map.  However, I think snow will become dominant on the backside of the storm system.  For the Joplin metro, showers most of the day.  A little rain/snow mix during the evening and overnight hours.  I think most of the snow will stay just east of the viewing area.  We just need to watch how fast and the colder air aloft work in, but as of right now it doesn’t look like a big deal.

Wednesday morning precip

By Wednesday morning, this system shifts into the Ohio River Valley and takes the snow with it.  It should leave a stipe of wet slushy snow from east central OK, NW AR, south central MO, eastern MO of 1-4″.  There could be a few isolated higher amounts in that band.

Temperatures will be much cooler this week compared to last week, but mainly dry through the week.  Our next wave works in with a fast moving system on Sunday that could give us some showers across the region.

Doug

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook:  meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter:  @DougHeady

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN.  THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS. 

This week:  After this system passes by, cooler with partly sunny skies.  However, temperatures should warm up nicely for the weekend.

Next Week:  Showers on Sunday with cooler temperatures working in on Monday.  Cooler temperatures stick around most of the week with rain chances Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday with our next system.  Warmer temperatures for the weekend with rain chances for Saturday.

March 6th-12th:  A cool start to the week with rain and possibly some snow chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Cooler and dry for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.  Temperatures warm for Saturday with rain chances.

March 13th-19th:  We cool right back down with showers on Sunday and Monday.  Mild temperatures return the rest of the week with severe thunderstorms possible by the weekend.

March 20th-26th:  Thunderstorms, possibly severe on Sunday with mild temperatures.  Another system with thunderstorms that could be severe on Tuesday.  Cooler temperatures with showers for Wednesday and Thursday.  We should be dry the rest of the week.

March 27th-April 2nd:  The first half of the week will be on the cool side with a few showers on Sunday and Monday.  Warming up for the second half of the week with slight chances for rain on Thursday and Friday.

April 3rd-9th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances on Sunday.  Staying fairly warm through the week with thunderstorms on Wednesday and Thursday.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures and dry as we work into the weekend.

April 10th-16th:  Mild with thunderstorm chances again on Sunday.  Then cooling down through most of the week with slight chances for showers on Tuesday Wednesday.  Warming up a bit for the weekend.

April 17th-23rd:  Warm with thunderstorms to start the week.  Some of these could be strong to severe.  Mild temperatures for the rest of the week with thunderstorms again on Friday.

April 24th-30th:  Warm with thunderstorm on Monday and Tuesday with showers sticking around through the middle of the week.  Another system moves in for the weekend with thunderstorms that could be severe.

May 1st-7th:  Mild with thunderstorms that could be severe to start the week.  Temperatures cool down for the middle of the week with dry conditions.  We warm back up late in the week with thunderstorms returning with a severe threat once again.

May 8th-14th:  A cooler and dry start to the week with a warming trend through the middle of the week.  Thunderstorm chances late in the week that could be severe.

May 15th-21st:  Warm temperatures through the first half of the week.  Thunderstorms during the middle of the week with a severe threat.  Temperatures stay nice with thunderstorms returning for Saturday.