Wednesday Night/Thursday AM Blog: Lots of changes

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Good Wednesday night/Thursday morning.  I hope you have had a great week so far.  Mine has been pretty good, except and am way under the weather and have been sick the past few days.  I hate the feeling of all I want to do is take a nap.  However, I have to be on the upswing which is good.  So lets talk weather.  We are warming up and will continue to push 80 on Thursday.

Once this front rolls through our temperatures will drop into the 30s by Friday AM.  Then we don’t warm up much on Friday.

Cold for high school football and below freezing on Friday night.

So lets look at this system with the pattern rolling in on Thursday.

You can see this same system last time it rolled through on September 5th.  This is to a T, evening the low off the coast of Cali.

Check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A cool start to the week with a few showers working in by Halloween.  Staying cool through the week with a little uptick in temperatures for the weekend.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

November 19th-25th:  A cold start to the week with warmer temperatures working in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with colder temperatures again for the weekend.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday Night/Saturday Morning: Weekend severe storms, long range forecast, snow?

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Good Friday night/Saturday morning.  I hope your week has been great!  Mine has been pretty good except my Chiefs on Thursday night, ugh!  However, wild weather moves right back in for the weekend.  Most of the day on Saturday looks good, much like Friday.  Warm, windy and partly sunny skies.  Storms will get going on Saturday evening.  Lets go to 6pm

Any severe weather across the region will have the main threat of wind and hail, but still a low tornado threat.  Lets go to 9pm

Move to midnight.

After this point, we just switch to heavy rain.  Lets jump to next Friday.

The blue is snow, hmm, want to watch this.  We will go more into this the next few days.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A great start to the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday with much colder temperatures working in.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold start to the week but warming up just a bit for Halloween.  There is a slight chance for rain that we will watch on Halloween and the first of November.  The rest of the week stays fairly mild.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

November 19th-25th:  A cold start to the week with warmer temperatures working in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with colder temperatures again for the weekend.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Monday Night/Tuesday Morning: Great stretch of weather, but lets look down the road

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Good Monday night/Tuesday AM.  I hope you had a great weekend!  Mine wasn’t to bad.  However, the Chiefs lost and played like they didn’t have a heartbeat.  Ugh, well they were going to come out flat sometime.  Monday was great!  I was very productive and got a ton done.  Well the weather is pretty calm over the next few days with great temperatures.  Our next system is on Saturday.  At this time it looks like showers and thunderstorms late in the day into the overnight hours Saturday night.  We will cool down a bit after this system but warm back up at the beginning of next week.  Then it gets interesting.  We have a much stronger system that rolls in next Thursday and Friday.  Now remember, the new pattern has started and will be in place for the next year.  The cycle length has been set for about two months and is now reacting with the new pattern.  So when I say cycle length, that means how far apart are the same storm systems rolling through.  For instance, this past year we were on a 58 day cycle.  That means if a storm system rolls through, then that same system will roll through again in 58 days.  This years cycle is a little bit shorter.  So lets look at the system next Thursday and Friday.

You can see the big storm system across the central plains.  This should cool us down a decent amount lasting till about Halloween.  Now we have seen this system before.  Even though it was in the last pattern we can still find it in the cycle.  Lets go back to September 5th.

The features are amazingly the exact same.  So we know about 50-52 days later from next week will get an arctic blast in the middle of December.  Ok check out my long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A great start to the week with rain chances on Thursday and Friday with much colder temperatures working in.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold start to the week but warming up just a bit for Halloween.  There is a slight chance for rain that we will watch on Halloween and the first of November.  The rest of the week stays fairly mild.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

November 19th-25th:  A cold start to the week with warmer temperatures working in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with colder temperatures again for the weekend.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday Night/Saturday AM: Strong to severe storms, big temperature swings, long range forecast

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Good Friday night/Saturday AM.  I hope you had a fantastic week.  Mine has been all over the place.  I worked, but also shot to Chicago yesterday for a migraine check up, then back here today and working.  Talk about wearing yourself out.  Plus the weather has been all over the place.  Afternoon highs into the upper 40s just a couple days ago, then today, highs pressing 90 degrees.  We have a lot more changes working in.  Another hot one Saturday.

Thunderstorms with a strong cold front will develop tomorrow evening.  Some of these could be strong to severe with the main threat being hail and wind.

Thunderstorms will continue to press south during the overnight hours.

Then much cooler temperatures work in again on Sunday morning.

Lets go down the road.  Remember the new Heady Pattern is now completely set for the next year.  Plus the cycle length has been set for a couple of months.  Now that we are in the new pattern, it is interesting to look at the storm system working through.  Saturday is our second system this week with thunderstorms.  But lets jump down the road to October 26th.

Look at the huge central plains trough which will bring us cold temperatures most of the last week of October.  You can see the new cycle length because this has already happened before.  Lets go back to September 5th.

You can see the last time this system rolled through.  This is super cool for me to look at as now I can dig even deeper into the winter, spring, summer and next years tropical season.  I will keep you updated.  Long range forecast is below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A chilly start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Mild/warm temperatures return for most of the week and staying dry.

October 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Sunday and Monday.  This will cool us down the rest of the week with rain chances again on Wednesday.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold start to the week but warming up just a bit for Halloween.  There is a slight chance for rain that we will watch on Halloween and the first of November.  The rest of the week stays fairly mild.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

November 19th-25th:  A cold start to the week with warmer temperatures working in by the middle of the week.  Rain chances on Wednesday, Thursday and Friday with colder temperatures again for the weekend.

November 26th-December 2nd:  Cold most of the week with rain or snow chances on Monday and Tuesday, then again on Thursday and Friday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

 

Cold temperatures! Active Pattern! Long Range Forecast!

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Good Tuesday evening!  Well who is enjoying the cold temperatures.  For some reason we always seem to go from Summer to Winter.  We always have the craziest temperatures swings.  Well if you don’t like the cold, just wait a couple days as summer will return.  Also the new pattern is in place and I am working hard on trying to figure out what this means for the next year.  Also the cycle length has been in place for a couple three months now and looks to be a great cycle length for this year.  Let me show this last system.

Here was yesterday’s surface map.  The surface low went right over the 4-state area.  Now, when this system return in Early December, it should track a little farther south which could be interesting with winter weather.  This is something I will watch very closely.  Cold temperatures for the area tonight.

It won’t last long, 80s return here on Friday.  However, another storm system rolls in no Saturday night with showers and thunderstorms and another pretty big cool down.  Let me show you the upper level map.

In the purple, that is our Jet Stream.  You can see how it digs deep across the SW US.  This will allow the big warm up ahead of it and then slam down after the system.  This is feature number 1.  We will see this set-up many times this winter which will give us chances for rain, snow and ice.  Now in the Blue, the is how the second feature Jet looks.  That type of pattern gives us much colder temperatures, but not a lot of rain or snow.  It will be interesting to see these two set-ups heading into the winter months.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A chilly start to the week with a warming trend through the week.  Warm temperatures with rain chances on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.  Cooling back down for the weekend.

October 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  This will bring back in the colder temperatures for the rest of the week.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold star to the week but warming up by Halloween with a few scattered showers.  Then cooling right back down for a couple days before mild temperatures return for the weekend.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Friday Night Blog: More thunderstorms, active pattern, long range forecast

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Good Friday night!  I hope you had a fantastic week!  Mine was great and just flew right on by.  The older I get, I keep thinking these weeks need to slow down or I am going to be 70 in a blink of an eye.  However, it is the weekend time.  I want to do projects around the house like always.  Plus my son has a football game Saturday afternoon.  We are 0-6, we need a win!!!!!!!!!!!!

The weather looks pretty good, but we are going to have thunderstorms working in tonight.  Most of these will arrive after midnight and could be on the strong side.  However, I am not expecting much in the way of severe weather at this time.  Plus these storms will weaken as they press east into SW MO.  Here is a look at the storms working in shortly after midnight.

Most of these will push right on through.  However, I do expect to see scattered showers until mid morning on Saturday.  The rest of the weekend looks fantastic.  Our next system moves in Monday night and Tuesday morning with additional showers and thunderstorms.

Now to me, this is very interesting.  Remember, we are already in the new cycle.  The cycle length is the distance apart from the same system coming back around.  This years cycle is a little shorter than last years which was about 58 days.  Also, the new pattern ( the way systems react) is just about fully completed.  So everything we see from here on out is very important.  Look how the surface low is a little south of us.  In yellow, that is the comma head of the system that would be a snow maker the next time this comes around.  Also with seasonal differences, this system will be a little farther south.  As a snow lover, this is what I want to see.  I will continue to watch this new pattern then when I have all the details on how it will react in about a month, I will let you know the dates of big systems through the winter months.

Plus we will have Nate making landfall near New Orleans on Saturday night.  However, it looks like most of Nate will stay SE of our region.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday AM.  Cooler temperatures work in for the middle of the week with warm temperatures returning toward the weekend.  Also rain chances return by next Friday and Saturday.

October 15th-21st:  A cool start to the week with cool temperatures lasting into the middle of the week.  Mild temperatures return the second half of the week with rain chances on Friday and Saturday.

October 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning sharply cooler the rest of the week.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold star to the week but warming up by Halloween with a few scattered showers.  Then cooling right back down for a couple days before mild temperatures return for the weekend.

November 5th-11th:  A mild start to the week with a storm system working in on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday with rain chances.  Turing a little cooler the rest of the week and mainly dry.

November 12th-18th:  Mild most of the week with a storms system with rain chances on Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday.  Much cooler temperatures work in for the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Wednesday night/Thursday AM Blog: More and more changes, plus long range forecast

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Good Wednesday night/Thursday AM.  I hope you are having a great week so far.  This week has been cruising by for me and it will be the weekend before we know it.  Plus we have had the on and off showers for the past 48 hours.  We will still see a few random showers on Thursday morning.

However, I think most of the afternoon looks pretty good.  We will heat up into the mid 80s before our next system rolls in on Friday night.  I think most of our rain will be after midnight and into Saturday morning.

A little stronger cold front will move through on Monday night and Tuesday morning.

This will give us some thunderstorms on Tuesday morning and much colder air working in.  Now you can see this system leans to the right, if really dug and leaned back to the left, oh my it would get cold.

HEADY PATTERN

Well the new pattern that will last for a year will be completely set here in about 5 days.  Now the new cycle has been in place for a couple of months.  It is a little shorter than what this past years recurring cycle has been.  October is a crucial month.  I need to see how the cycle reacts with the new pattern.  Once we get into November, I can accurately tell you what the winter, spring, summer and when we will have tropical system and where.  Stay tuned!

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  A warm start to the week with showers and thunderstorms on Monday night and Tuesday AM.  Much cooler temperatures and mainly dry the rest of the week.  We will see a storm system working in over the weekend with rain chances.  Highs mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

October 15th-21st:  A mild start to the week with ran chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Then turning cooler the rest of the week with rain chances on Friday as well.

October 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning sharply cooler the rest of the week.

October 29th-November 4th:  A cold star to the week but warming up by Halloween with a few scattered showers.  Then cooling right back down for a couple days before mild temperatures return for the weekend.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday night/Wednesday AM: Great temperatures, next system, long range forecast

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Good Tuesday night/Wednesday morning.  I hope your week is going great so far.  Mine has been crazy busy so far this week.  We have gotten a few new toys at work that I am trying to quickly figure out.  Also, we have had changes with the weather the past two days.  A cold front rolled through the area that has greatly dropped our temperatures, plus we have had some showers which we could use.  Showers will pick up again in the early morning hours.

I do think any showers will dissipate during the afternoon hours.  Then we look great for the next few days.  Lets jump into early next week.

We are looking at the Jet Stream level, but I put on the surface front for you.  We will warm up as we are under a ridge, but with a front hanging around, we will have at least a slight chance for pop up showers all most each day next week.

NEW HEADY PATTERN

The new cycle has been cycling for a couple of months now.  You can still see signs of the old cycle and pattern but are quickly dissipating as the new pattern has now begun.  It will be completely set around October 10th.  So lets jump down the road about a week and a half.

Due to the storm system to our west, we will be warm ahead of it.  However, this should be a decently wet system here in about two weeks.  However, this shows great evidence of the new pattern as this type of system digging deep in the SW in a newer trend.  So here we go.  I have the new cycle pretty much to a T.  However, I want to see how it reacts with the new pattern over the next month.  I will keep you updated.  Remember, my long range forecast is below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm with highs in the 80s most of the week.

October 8th-14th:  A warm start to the week with scattered showers sticking around.  Cooling down for the middle and later half of the week with a couple systems working through.  Rain chances Wednesday through Friday.

October 15th-21st:  A cool start to the week with a slow warming trend through the middle of the week.  Rain chances Wednesday through Friday which should cool us right back down for the weekend.

October 22nd-28th:  A mild start to the week with rain chances on Tuesday and Wednesday.  Turning sharply cooler the rest of the week.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Tuesday night/Wednesday AM Blog: Your long range forecast.

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Well the heat has returned!  Fall officially begins on Friday and it won’t feel like it.  Plus we will mainly stay dry over the next few days.  However, changes are coming.  Check out my latest video-cast.

Long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Starting to cool down through the week with rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.  Additional rain chances on Thursday and Friday.

October 1st-7th:  Showers on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures working in for most of the week.  Additional rain chances by Saturday.

October 8th-14th:  A cool start to the week with warmer temps by mid week into the 70s.  Cooling back down late in the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.

October 15th-21st:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures through the middle of the week.  Cooling right back down for the weekend.  Rain chances on Thursday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS

Rain chances! Heat! A look down the road.

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Good Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  I hope your week has been great!  Mine is pretty good just busy as normal.  I am super bored with the weather.  August, September and October are so boring around here.  Our weather starts really picking back up in November and lasts into July.

Right now we have been dealing with the clouds from Irma.

The rain has stayed just east, but we have the thicker clouds.  However, Irma will eject out tomorrow and sunshine returns.

We will start a warming trend with temperatures around 90 into the weekend.  Next system will start to effect us on Saturday.

However, I think the better chances for rain will hold off until Saturday night and Sunday morning.  Next system after that is Tuesday.

This system will keep temperatures warm but rain chances around through the middle of the week.  So move to next Thursday, I want to look at the Heady Pattern or CPH (Cycling Pattern Hypothesis.

This is interesting.  The Jet Stream is getting strong and diving system into the central plains.  Now, we are still on the old pattern (The way systems react).  However, the new cycle has been going for a while but reacting to the old pattern.  The cycle is the amount of dates it takes for a system to repeat.  The new pattern will start here in about two weeks, so it will be very interesting to see how the new cycle reacts with the new pattern.  We have slid back into a La Nina, this places an important roll on how long the cycle will be.  This year we will be on a longer cycle once again.  I have it fairly well pegged out, but I still want to test it a couple more weeks.

Long range forecast below.

Doug

#headypattern

#4-stateweather

dheady@koamtv.com

Facebook: Meteorologist Doug Heady

Twitter: @DougHeady

Instagram: @headydoug

LONG RANGE FORECAST BASED OFF THE HEADY PATTERN. THIS COVERS NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS, MISSOURI, OKLAHOMA AND ARKANSAS.

Next Week:  Warm temperatures with mainly 80s through the week.  Mainly dry through the week.

September 17th-23rd:  A warm start to the week with rain chances through about Tuesday.  Mild 70s through the middle of the week with 80s returning late in the week.  Also rain chances for Thursday and Friday.

September 24th-30th:  A warm start with 80s at the beginning of the week.  A cool finish with highs into the 60s the second half of the week.  Rain chances on Monday and Tuesday.

October 1st-7th:  Cool most of the week with highs in the 50s and 60s. Rain chances on Sunday, Wednesday and Saturday.

October 8th-14th:  A cool start to the week with warmer temps by mid week into the 70s.  Cooling back down late in the week.  Rain chances on Tuesday, Wednesday and Saturday.

October 15th-21st:  A cool start to the week with mild temperatures through the middle of the week.  Cooling right back down for the weekend.  Rain chances on Thursday.

DOUG HEADYHEADY PATTERNMETEOROLOGISTSEVERE WEATHERTHUNDERSTORMS